NEW DELHI: While the number of COVID-19 cases in the national capital continues to surge with more than 400 cases being registered on Thursday, health experts believe that more number of milder cases will lead to herd immunity.
"Herd immunity won’t be achieved if only 5-10 per cent of the population is exposed to the virus. It requires an adequate number of people in the community to be exposed and those who have developed immunity will then protect other people. It has to cross at least 60-70 per cent of the population, then only will the rest will be protected," said Dr Jugal Kishore, director and head of department community medicine, Safdarjung. Explaining further, Dr Kishore stated that in India the majority of cases are asymptomatic, mild or moderate cases and cases with severe complications are very less.
"The infection rate of the virus is very high... The increase is exponential in case of corona and the peak comes very fast. When it reaches a higher level and affects around 60 per cent of the population herd immunity comes into play – which means that the majority of people surrounding us are immune. So, some of the people who haven’t yet been infected will be sparred, because other people are already immune," he said.
Dr Ashutosh Biswas, a professor of Medicine at AIIMS, also noted that more exposure to the virus will leave fewer people to be infected. "The graph will automatically come down because no one will be left to be infected. The more infections, the more immunity and then we can move towards herd immunity,”" he said.
Talking about the impact of government’s plan to bring relaxations in lockdown, experts noted that cases are to surge but the focus, however, should be on those having comorbid health conditions. "The only problem will be a rise in community deaths, among those with comorbid health conditions. There is a rise in the number of cases yet the mortality rate isn’t as high as compared to other countries. This though is a hypothetical estimation and concrete studies are yet to be conducted," added Dr Biswas.
However, Dr Biswas commented that there is no concrete proof to show just how effective anti-bodies will be in restricting the virus. "We are not sure how long this immunity will protect the masses – The protection may be short term, long term or lifelong, this cannot be concluded. Patients who recovered are getting reinfected. In asymptomatic patients, anti-bodies may not have been fully developed. They may not be immunised yet," he mentioned.