COVID wave ebbing in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata?

An analysis of daily COVID cases and deaths in Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata shows that the wave may have already peaked there.
For representational purposes (Photo | EPS)
For representational purposes (Photo | EPS)

NEW DELHI: Though the ongoing third wave of Covid-19 continues to be building in the country, the curve in a few big cities may have started to bend.

An analysis of daily Covid cases and deaths in Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata shows that the wave may have already peaked there.

Mumbai logged 7,895 new cases on Sunday; its figures have been declining since January 7 when the city had a whopping 20,971 fresh cases.

The earlier one-day high for Mumbai was 11,163 cases, registered on April 4 last year during the second wave of the pandemic.

In Delhi, where the daily Covid cases had crossed 30,000 on two days late last week, less than 28,000 were recorded on Sunday.

Though the number of tests, too, dropped a tad in the city, the good news is the fall in the test positivity rate (TPR) — under 28% now after crossing 30% earlier.

Kolkata, which had shown an explosive TPR of over 70% for several days, is also reporting a marginal decline. Also, the daily case count in the city is now under 6,000 as against 10,000-plus earlier.

A senior member of the national Covid-19 task force told this newspaper that the government is watching these numbers closely, adding the wave appears to be ebbing.

“However, we will need to see the trend for about 10 days before reaching a conclusion,” he said.

Health economist Rijo M John pointed out that at the national level, too, the most comforting factor is the low level of hospitalisation.

National growth rate of active cases dipping?

“The national growth of active cases has been declining for the past couple of days. Testing may have declined a bit. But the TPR has not really gone up much despite a change in strategy towards more targeted testing,” pointed out health economist Rijo M John.

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The New Indian Express