The issue of the disqualification of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi as a member of the Lok Sabha has brought almost all the Opposition parties in the country together on a common platform, if only out of fears of being rendered politically irrelevant by the BJP juggernaut in the general election scheduled to be held next year.
This came at a time when most of these parties were already at loggerheads with the PM Narendra Modi-led Central govt on allegations of State patronage extended by it to industrialist Gautam Adani, whose wealth rose exponentially since the BJP assumed power in 2014, following a report released by the US-based firm Hindenburg Research.
This realignment of equations between the Opposition parties has seen something of a ceasefire even between traditional foes like the AAP and the Congress, with Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal setting aside, for now, the war of words between the two parties over allegations of corruption levelled by the CBI and the Ed against his erstwhile deputy Manish Sisodia, currently cooling his heels in Tihar Jail in the so-called Delhi liquor scam.
“A conspiracy is being hatched to eliminate non-BJP leaders and parties by prosecuting them. We have differences with Congress, but it is not right to implicate Rahul Gandhi in a defamation case like this. It is the job of the public and the Opposition to ask questions. We respect the court but disagree with the decision,” Kejriwal said, taking to Twitter.
AAP MLAs also moved a resolution in the Delhi Assembly urging Parliament to probe the allegations against Adani by setting up a Joint Parliamentary Committee on the issue. Before that, AAP MPs had joined the Opposition protests led by the Congress over the Adani-Hindenburg row during the Budget session of Parliament, which saw them marching together holding aloft banners demanding a JPC probe.
Political analysts feel that these developments hold significance for the city’s political landscape despite the visceral hatred the AAP has traditionally displayed, at least for public consumption, towards the Grand Old Party. They went so far as to suggest that the two parties might enter into some sort of understanding ahead of the 2024 polls.
Political commentator Ajay Gudavarthy, an associate professor at JNU, says such a possibility can’t be ruled out since both parties are on the same page on many issues and with AAP now in the thick of corruption charges, its rhetorical attack on the Congress for such issues had lost relevance. “If the AAP and the Congress join hands, they can give a strong fight to the BJP in Delhi and perhaps some other parts of the country. It will help to minimise the division of Opposition votes,” he said.
Manoj Kumar, a political analyst earlier associated with the Aam Aadmi Party, holds a similar opinion.
“The two parties are now up against the BJP government at the Centre on issues such as the Adani row and the ED and CBI action against Opposition leaders. On the national level, leaders across the political spectrum such as SP’s Akhilesh Yadav, TMC’s Mamata Banerjee, RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, BRS’ K Chandrashekhar Rao and Arvind Kejriwal are seriously mulling joining a joint Opposition front along with the Congress. They feel fighting the BJP together may unseat it from power at the Centre. So they may well come together,” he said.
Another analyst, Dushyant Nagar, however, felt that while a coalition between the AAP and the Congress would indeed preempt the division of votes polled in favour of the Opposition vis-à-vis the BJP, such a move is unlikely to see the day of light due to Kejriwal’s inflated ego and political ambitions.
“Many AAP leaders are willing to join hands with the Congress as they were earlier affiliated with that party. The problem is that Kejriwal, due to his political reasons, has been unwilling to go for that, with the result that AAP has cut into Opposition votes and helped propel the BJP’s rise to power when Assembly polls were held in states such as Goa, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh by fielding candidates even when the party had no standing there. It was almost like the role played by Asaduddin Owaisi. Right now also, after Rahul Gandhi’s disqualification as an MP, Kejriwal seems to be fancying his chances of emerging as the face of the Opposition,” he said.
“Even for the upcoming Assembly elections in Karnataka, the AAP has announced plans to field its candidates at over 220 constituencies. This will only hurt the prospects of the Congress as a division of votes polled against the BJP will take place. If Kejriwal is indeed serious about Opposition unity, he should avoid such moves and join hands with other Opposition parties in earnest right away,” he added.
Will Congress be interested in an alliance?
Following Manish Sisodia’s arrest by the CBI, the Delhi unit of the Congress had hit the streets in protest against the ‘liquor scam’ and made scathing attacks on the AAP. City Congress chief Anil Choudhary welcomed the arrest of Manish Sisodia by the CBI and later by the Enforcement Directorate and the party had put up posters against the AAP. He had gone on to allege that the AAP supremo was the ‘mastermind’ behind the scam and demanded his arrest.
The AAP had then hit back at the GOP, accusing it of not taking a stand against the alleged misuse of Central investigating agencies by the BJP-led Central government. Talking to this newspaper, a source in the Delhi unit of the Congress downplayed any talk of joining hands with the AAP in the city. “The Congress and the AAP may, in theory, come together for the electoral fight for the seven Lok Sabha constituencies, but this is impossible in the context of the Assembly elections considering that AAP is hugely popular and has a brute majority in the House. Congress workers won’t stand for that,” he said.
He attributed the AAP’s change of attitude towards the Congress to the support garnered by the party from Muslim voters in the MCD polls held recently. “The success of the Bharat Jodo Yatra in Delhi got the Muslims to favour us,” he said, adding that the AAP only wanted to use the Congress to try and register a win from the city in the next Lok Sabha polls.
Incidentally, there was talk of the two parties allying up ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, but it did not materialise. “An alliance between the Congress & AAP in Delhi would mean the rout of the BJP. The Congress is willing to give up 4 Delhi seats to the AAP to ensure this. But, Mr Kejriwal has done yet another U-turn! Our doors are still open, but the clock is running out,” Congress leader Rahul Gandhi tweeted on April 15, 2019.
When the move fell through, Kejriwal lay the blame squarely on the Congress. According to him, talks between AAP and Congress were going well and they wanted to form an alliance with Congress for 33 seats in Punjab, Haryana, Goa and Delhi.
“They then presented a new condition which was impossible for us to agree upon. But somehow we agreed to their condition. After this, they suddenly said they don’t want to ally with us,” Kejriwal claimed.
“In world history, have you heard of any instance when a political alliance was formed on Twitter? Rahul Gandhi was merely pretending that he wants an alliance with AAP but in reality, he did not want to join hands with us,” Kejriwal had reacted.
After the talks failed, the Congress and AAP fielded their candidates for all seats in Delhi, Punjab, Goa and Haryana. Both the parties went on to lose all seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi to the BJP, a repeat of the 2014 scenario. The saffron party’s vote share saw a substantial increase, from 46.40 per cent in 2014 to 56.90 per cent five years later.
They have been bitter foes since Arvind Kejriwal toppled Sheila Dikshit in 2013 following his campaign against the UPA govt at the Centre. Now, with the Opposition gearing up to take on the BJP juggernaut in 2024, there is talk of the two reaching an electoral understanding, write Anup Verma and Amit Pandey