NEW DELHI: Atmospheric temperatures are rising rapidly and will continue to rise in the future. These warming temperatures will increase the fire weather danger in many Indian forests, according to a recent study by IIT Delhi.
IIT Delhi researchers developed a very high-resolution data set of future climate projections and used that data to calculate the Fire Weather Index (FWI) for forest regions of India.
The results showed that forests in Central and South India and the Himalayan region will see significant increases in FWI by the end of the century. The fire season in these regions will also increase by 12-61 days. These findings align well with the conventional wisdom that higher temperatures increase forest fire hazard.
Interestingly, the study showed that not to be the case in all forests. Humid tropical forests in the Western Ghats and parts of the North-East, where rainfall and humidity are projected to rise, will experience lower FWI despite the warming.
Dr. Somnath Baidya Roy, Professor and Head of the Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, and a co-author of the study, said, “We must study forest fires in India at a high degree of granularity to properly represent the diversity in climate and forest types across the country. Course resolution global scale studies simply don’t work for us.”
Anasuya Barik, PhD student at the Centre for Atmospheric Sciences and the lead author of the study, said, “Our study is the first of its kind in India and has significant implications for understanding and managing forest fires. Our study shows that we needs to develop fire danger thresholds and management policies at
local levels instead of national levels.”
The study reads, “Almost 21% of India is covered by forests that are home to a wide range of species making Indian forests a biodiversity hotspot. The forest types are extremely diverse ranging from arid to alpine. Most forests are heavily fragmented due to high human population density and intense land use practices. Forest fires occur throughout the year except for the peak monsoon period.”
“According to climate projections, India will experience a warming of 4.4–4.8 °C by the end-century as compared to the 1976–2005 period. Such warming is expected to affect forest fire occurrences and severity in India. However, other factors like future changes in humidity and precipitation are also likely to play pivotal roles in the future fire regime. Furthermore, climate change may affect the timing and intensity of the monsoons,” it added.
The study was published in Communications Earth and Environment, a highly-ranked journal from the Nature Springer group which is available online at https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01112-w. IIT Delhi is one of the 23 IITs created to be Centres of Excellence for training, research and development in science, engineering and technology in India. Established as College of Engineering in 1961, it was later declared as an Institution of National Importance and renamed as IIT, Delhi.
‘Significant increase in forest fires’
IIT Delhi researchers developed a very high-resolution data set of future climate projections and used that data to calculate the Fire Weather Index (FWI) for forest regions of India. The results showed that forests in Central and South India and the Himalayan region will see significant increases in FWI by the end of the century. The fire season in these regions will also increase by 12-61 days.