NEW DELHI: If the analysis of the past Lok Sabha elections is anything to go by, the national capital has voted according to the mood of the nation—be it in the aftermath of the late prime minister Indira Gandhi’s assassination or the ‘Modi wave’ in 2014.
In 1984, the general elections were held soon after the assassination of Indira Gandhi, the then-prime minister. Her son, the late Rajiv Gandhi, swept the polls with a massive 414 seats, a record yet to be broken by any national political party.
That time, Delhi, which had just two months back witnessed the anti-Sikh riots, too extended its hand in favour of the Congress, probably due to a heavy outpouring of public grief at Indira Gandhi’s death. Congress won all seven seats in Delhi in the 1984 elections. The victorious candidates were KC Pant from New Delhi, Lalit Maken from south Delhi, Chaudhary Bharat Singh from outer Delhi, HKL Bhagat from east Delhi, Jai Prakash Aggarwal from Chandni Chowk, Jagdish Tytler from Delhi Sadar and Sundarwati Nawal Prabhakar from Karol Bagh.
Rajiv Gandhi’s time
However, five years later, things changed for the Congress. Rajiv Gandhi-led Congress government was caught in the middle with the Bofors case, the rising insurgency in Punjab and Assam, the Sri Lankan civil war and the Shah Bano case. Its influence was seen in Delhi. In the 1989 general elections, the BJP won four of the seven seats in Delhi, the Congress won two, and the Janata Dal in third place with one seat. Although the BJP won most of the seats, the Congress still led in votes. LK Advani (BJP) from New Delhi, Madan Lal Khurana (BJP) from south Delhi, Tarif Singh (Janata Dal) from outer Delhi, HKL Bhagat (INC) from east Delhi, Jai Prakash Aggarwal from Chandni Chowk (INC), Vijay Kumar Malhotra (BJP) from Delhi Sadar, and Kalka Dass (BJP) from Karol Bagh, were declared as the winners.
At the Centre, VP Singh, the head of the Janata Dal, was chosen as leader of the National Front government with outside support from the BJP and CPM. The alliance remained in power for two years until November 7, 1990, when the BJP withdrew its support.
Babri Masjid
Then came the 1991 general elections, which were, according to political experts, held in a “polarised” environment and are also referred to as the ‘Mandal-Mandir’ elections—the reason—the fallout of Mandal Commission and the Ram Janmabhoomi-Babri Masjid issue.
The effect of the issues could be seen in Delhi voters, who gave five of the seven seats to the BJP. The Congress had to settle for two seats. However, at the Centre, the Congress formed the government with prime minister PV Narasimha Rao.
The government functioned for a full five years, and the next polling was held in 1996. The results in Delhi were almost similar, with the BJP yet again winning five of the seven seats and the Congress two.
This time, some new faces among the seven Delhi parliamentarians from both parties who remained victorious were Sushma Swaraj, who won from south Delhi; Jagmohan Malhotra, a bureaucrat-turned-politician, who contested on the BJP’s ticket and won from the New Delhi seat; and Meira Kumar of Congress, who in the later years of her life became the Speaker of Lok Sabha.
Politics was rapidly changing at the Centre. The BJP, which was probably riding on a “polarised wave” that garnered the votes following the demolition of Babri Masjid, won 161 Lok Sabha seats, making it the largest party. However, it lacked a clear majority, resulting in a hung Parliament.
Vajpayee years
President Shankar Dayal Sharma invited Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the leader of the single largest party, to form the government. Vajpayee accepted the offer and became the 10th Prime Minister of India, but his government was short-lived and ended within 13 days.
The second-largest party, the Congress, declined to form the government, and ultimately, Janata Dal leader and the then Karnataka CM HD Deve Gowda was sworn in as the 11th Prime Minister. Gowda served as the PM for almost a year until he had to resign after Congress withdrew its support.
IK Gujral, who maintained good relations with the Congress, was then given the baton and became the 12th prime minister. However, Gujral’s tenure was too short-lived, as he resigned after the Congress again withdrew its support following Gujral’s refusal to expel the DMK from the government. Due to this continuous instability, early elections were held in 1998. The people of Delhi gave 6-1 lead to the BJP, and Meira Kumar was the sole winner for the Congress from Karol Bagh constituency.
UPA I, II
On the national level, the results of the 1998 polls were not much different from previous polls, but Vajpayee was able to form a coalition government—the NDA—after stitching an alliance with the TDP.
It was a bumpy ride ahead for the BJP in managing an uneasy coalition. The NDA government functioned for 13 months until AIADMK withdrew its support, and the government collapsed by just one vote in a no-confidence motion. However, as other parties also did not have the required numbers, none could form a government, and yet again, free elections were announced.
In 1999, the BJP went into the election, leading the NDA, a coalition of over 20 parties and swept the polls in Delhi by winning all seven seats. At the Centre, Vajpayee formed the government and became the first non-Congress Prime Minister to serve a full five-year term till 2004.
The winds of political change again started blowing in 2004 and the Congress was back in business. In the Lok Sabha polls, the Congress defeated six of the BJP’s candidates in Delhi out of 7.The six Congress parliamentarians were Ajay Maken from New Delhi seat, Sajjan Kumar from outer Delhi, Sandeep Dikshit from east Delhi, Kapil Sibal from Chandni Chowk, Jagdish Tytler from Delhi Sadar, and Krishna Tirath from Karol Bagh. BJP’s VK Malhotra won the south Delhi seat.
The Congress party further strengthened its position in the next polls, i.e. 2009, and trounced the BJP by winning all seven seats in Delhi. At the Centre, the UPA government, led by Manmohan Singh, continued its second term.
Modi wave
The second term of Congress was mired with multiple issues, including inflation, economic slowdown, corruption, security, and terrorism. On the other hand, the BJP announced the then Gujarat CM Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate. Political pundits called the poll results a “Modi Wave,” as the BJP trounced the Congress by winning 282 seats and reducing the grand-old party to only 44.
In Delhi, the saffron clans swept the polls by winning all seven seats. However, it was not just the “Modi Wave” that helped the BJP. The anti-corruption movement started by Anna Hazare, supported by the current Delhi CM, Arvind Kejriwal, also helped.
From 2014 to 2019, the time between two general elections, the Aam Aadmi Party rose to the firmament of political power in Delhi after their complete dominance in the Assembly elections. In 2015, in the Vidhan Sabha polls, the AAP shattered all records to gain an absolute majority by winning 67 of the 70 seats. BJP had to settle for three, while Congress drew blank. In the 2019 general elections, though it seemed that the AAP would have wrested power from the BJP, the “Modi Magic” continued, and the BJP was once again victorious on all seven seats in Delhi.
Surprisingly, the BJP dropped six of the seven sitting MPs for the forthcoming polls. The AAP and Congress are now part of the INDIA bloc and have distributed 4-3 seats.
