He is not a man who can flee; he is in the public eye.” Courtroom 2, Delhi High Court is all crammed on the March 21 afternoon, a sultry stillness settling over faces in the audience while a verbal duel rages between Advocate Abhishek Manu Singhvi and Additional Solicitor General SV Raju.
“The ED has been calling since last year, can’t they wait for two more months? …the summonses were sent with an oblique motive to arrest him. The investigation has been going on since August 2022,” says Advocate Singhvi, appearing for Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal.
The Chief Minister, after being issued a ninth summons by the Enforcement Directorate (ED), had approached the high court, seeking it to direct the probing agency to stay coercive action against him for not appearing on the eight summonses sent prior.
“You can’t jump the gun; put the cart before the horse. The court has to hear first on maintainability (of the plea). They (petitioner) have to demonstrate first that it is maintainable; without demonstration, they can’t get interim relief,” ASG Raju, representing the central agency, responded.
The back and forth will continue for a while. The court will ultimately deny relief to Kejriwal against ‘use of force’. But in the course of the hearing, the division bench of Justice Suresh Kumar Kait and Justice Manoj Jain will make an “oral observation” that will usher in the storm clouds; a hailstorm shall descend to irrevocably alter the political scenario of the city. The country will be pelted with headlines like ‘first time in the history…’ and ‘never before…’ while the citizen will stare in mute wonderment.
The observation was informal, almost ironic; “You are sending summons after summons. What has prevented you from arresting him?” the bench asked ED’s counsel. And that was it.
Hours later, a sticky evening has crept in. Standing behind the barricades that have shut out the city traffic, we aim our cameras at the CM’s official residence on Flagstaff Road in Civil Lines, north Delhi. A 10-member ED team led by an additional director has just alighted at the front gate. They will search the place up and down while the incumbent chief minister is questioned for more than two hours by sleuths. Back outside the gates, AAP leaders are gathering here. They have expressed their apprehensions earlier, they will repeat it — ‘They are here to arrest him.’
9.15 pm. It is swift. Car doors close authoritatively; then a convoy flies past. We are handed a statement — ‘An ED team on Thursday reached the residence of Arvind Kejriwal and carried out searches. Subsequently, he was arrested.’
On our way back, we have seen Delhi Police disperse protesting crowds. “Murder of democracy,” voices screamed as they were loaded onto police vans. On the next intersection, saffron flags distribute saffron sweets in praise of ED; their glee knows no bounds.
And since, Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal has been in custody, first at ED’s and then at Tihar. Quite remarkable under any circumstance, but with the Lok Sabha elections round the corner, Kejriwal’s arrest has taken all political dynamics for a toss, whether local or national.
An emotional appeal
The arrest of the AAP national convener in connection with Delhi excise policy case has significantly impacted the party’s campaign for the polls ahead. With a prominent crowd-puller for the party incarcerated, it seemed that the situation would ‘halt’ AAP campaign for some times.
However, the ground appears to be telling a different story; AAP will not only get votes from its dedicated base of workers, sympathy for Arvind Kejriwal may also reflect in AAP’s vote share, murmurs say. And the party seems aware of this opportunity, leaving no stone unturned to garner public sympathy. “The ED and the BJP are conspiring against him to hinder his campaign efforts during the election season. The time of his arrest, with the model code of conduct in place, was orchestrated to disrupt the AAP’s electoral performance,” say the party leaders.
Sunita Kejriwal has taken the centre stage. Reading the CM’s heartfelt ‘letters from prison’ as she sits on his ‘office chair’, Sunita has sought to sway public sympathy in her husband’s favour. Meanwhile, the party, presumed to have faced a ‘setback’ with its top man in jail, pulled significant crowds to the Ramlila Maidan on March 31, where the opposition INDIA bloc’s top brass gathered to protest the high-profile arrest.
The return of ‘Sanjay bhaiyya’
Meanwhile, something significant stirs in the Supreme Court. Sanjay Singh, jailed for six months over alleged involvement in the liquor ‘scam’, is granted bail by the top court. Sanjay is released from the jail a day later. Now outside, he went directly to CM Kejriwal’s house to meet ‘Sunita bhabhi’. Singh then reached the party office, and addressed those who had gathered to hear his fiery enunciations after so long.
Sources in the party suggest, after the INDIA block rally, Sunita Kejriwal is likely to occupy a prominent position in AAP’s electoral campaign, to compensate for her husband’s absence. Sanjay Singh, now out on bail, is expected to feature next to her take, as she takes the CM’s words to the people. Sanjay Singh will probably lead the AAP campaign in Delhi and other states, sources say.
Following an alliance with the Congress, the AAP had previously announced candidates to four Lok Sabha seats. While the BJP has named candidates for all seven Delhi seats, the Congress is yet to finalize candidates for three seats.
The AAP kickstarted its Lok Sabha poll campaign on March 8 from Delhi, advocating for the slogan, ‘Sansad mein bhi Kejriwal, tabhee Dilli hogee aur khushahaal’ (With Kejriwal in Parliament, Delhi will prosper).
The party urged voters to elect all seven Lok Sabha candidates of the INDIA alliance to strengthen Kejriwal’s position. Criticising the incumbent BJP MPs for allegedly neglecting Delhi’s issues in the Parliament, AAP leaders questioned their absence when crucial situations affected the city.
BJP’s rebuttle
BJP leaders in Delhi do not feel that the arrest of CM Kejriwal would favour AAP in the Lok Sabha elections, rather, they believe that it is the turning point of the AAP’s political future. Yet, the BJP is alert to the fast-paced developments in the political spectrum and has strategised to counter if any sympathy wave is being generated in the favour of the Aam Aadmi Party.
While AAP on one side has come out on the roads to protest against the arrest of their leader, the BJP leaders, who could have possibly remained in ‘wait and watch’ mode, are also out on the streets demanding Kejriwal’s removal from the post of chief minister. “We are well aware that AAP may try to gather a sympathy vote from Kejriwal’s protest but we too are prepared to tackle it,” a BJP leader said. Sources in the party say that leaders have been strictly directed to avoid using any “demeaning or controversial” statements against AAP leaders and instead focus on the “misrule and corruption” of the AAP governments in Delhi and Punjab.
To counter AAP’s “Mein Bhi Kejriwal” campaign, the BJP workers have been assigned to go door-to-door and explain their party’s developmental schemes and simultaneously clear the doubts of people on the “liquor policy scam”, in case they believe AAP’s version of facts.
Just a few days back, Delhi BJP’s Lok Sabha election in-charge, OP Dhankar held three detailed meetings with the seven Lok Sabha candidates of Delhi, heads and members of the election management committee, to review election preparations. Dhankar while asking candidates to keep their campaign clean, also asked them to make every voter aware of the corruption of the Kejriwal government.
Shades of opinions
Former CPI (ML) leader, Kavita Krishnan, while speaking to this newspaper observed that the messaging after Arvind Kejriwal’s arrest built on the alleged misuse of the central agencies has percolated among the public
“I have observed electoral communication very closely since the days of university elections. I don’t think the Congress was able to communicate its messages effectively initially but now, the shift to a simple style of communication is resonating with the public which the AAP and Arvind Kejriwal always had,” Krishnan said.
The Left leader said she is noting currently that the message opposition parties are trying to convey is now penetrating with some sections of society. People are talking about the misuse of central agencies. The lack of moneytrail in the arrest of Arvind Kejriwal which the AAP is badgering on is being discussed.
“Besides, in my conversations, I have observed that people, who are against the current regime, are comparing the country’s scenario with Russia. They are wary of giving full control to a single party. They want the BJP to earn their votes while also want a stable opposition. The sympathy sentiment towards Kejriwal is also there. However, whether the sentiments would translate into votes or into voters apathy is yet to be seen. But the point is that the message is percolated to the voters and if the opposition continues the momentum, then we can see interesting results,” said Krishnan.
Distinguished ex-professor Shamsul Islam who taught Political Science at the Delhi University said the opposition is gaining sympathy ground in the city after Kejriwal’s arrest.
“I go to various areas including bastis and unauthorised settlements for my work, which co-incidentally, is the biggest voter base of the political parties. What I have seen there that the charge of corruption (against AAP leaders) is not making much ripples,” the academic noted.
Pointing out the elusive dynamics of sympathy and anti-incumbancy, the professor said, “There is a sympathy sentiments for the AAP and anti-incumbency for the ruling government. The BJP knows it very well. It is also evident in the actions of the central probe agencies in the manner they are going after the opposition. The ‘jumla of 400 paar’ (400-seat narrative) is only a psychological tactic to give an impression to the voters about a confident return. The ground reality is not what the party is projecting. I think the redundant opposition has revived after the latest event. While the voting day would decide the fate but I won’t be surprised if oppositions sweeps the seats here,” he noted.
What people say
On the streets, opinions are mixed. Anjali Singh, a young law student said “The BJP is trying to finish off any opposition that remains. You know that democracy is in danger when Chief MInisters can be put behind bars over petty issues”.
Dharmendra Pal, a shopkeeper in South Delhi’s Saidulajab and an Aam Aadmi Party voter since the party entered electoral politics in 2013 said, “The people of Delhi love Kejriwal. They will punish the BJP in the coming elections. The INDIA alliance will win all seven seats in Delhi this time around”
Yet many remained apathetic to Kejriwal’s arrest. Some even expressing delight at the party’s fate. Ashok Pandey, a small business owner who had supported the party in its initial years said, “They have had it coming. Despite starting off as an anti-corruption party, they have become increasingly corrupt over the years. This is why most of their leaders are behind bars.”
Kusum Rani, a resident of Tilak Nagar said, “If they are not involved in any corruption, they have nothing to worry about. We should just let the law take its course.”
Some residents also showed a balanced view of the situation. Sarabjit Singh, a government employee said, “I am not a big Kejriwal supporter and I think there are corrupt elements in his party. However, arresting a major opposition leader just before the election is not fair. The Election Commission should definitely look into this matter.”
Anas Ahmad, a former JNU administrator, said, “I think voting behaviour depends on the work done as per the demands by the particular minister. There may be many people in the slums and villages who wouldn’t know that Kejriwal is behind bars for what reasons so they may still go by what he has done for them in the past so many years. Kejriwal is likely to win many sympathy votes. People have seen his government work and give people what they want so his arrest may not impact the voting behaviour negatively.”
Meanwhile a resident of Patparganj, Pooja Mehra who is also a teacher at one of the play schools said, “One may feel that Kejriwal’s arrest will turn tables in terms of voting but I as a resident have seen his government taking initiatives for the residents. I live in the assembly of Sisodia and we all saw him personally doing all the work. Even if he is not around for the past two years, we still miss him badly and I feel that if he comes back, things will be all positive. He still has a strong hold over our hearts.”