After supporting the Congress in the 2004 and 2009 parliamentary elections, many voters shifted their loyalties towards the BJP in 2014 and 2019. The Congress enjoyed the support of its traditional voters, while the saffron party gained from the anti-incumbency waves against the Sheila Dikshit-led Delhi government which lasted for 15 years, and the Manmohan Singh dispensation, which was in the Centre between 2004 and 2014.
During this time, the Aam Aadmi Party emerged as a new political force in the metropolis, winning 28 of the 70 assembly seats in the 2013 elections, ending the Congress’ 15-year rule. Despite claims of the mythologised BJP wave across the country, the party’s vote percentage was 46.40%, less than the combined vote share of the Congress and the AAP. Both opposition parties, realising the need for an alliance, initiated talks on several occasions. For the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal expressed his party’s interest in forming an alliance with the Congress for 33 seats in Punjab, Haryana, Goa, and Delhi.
According to Kejriwal, the Congress had refused to form an alliance with the AAP in Punjab and Goa. AAP claimed that everything was planned, but Congress leaders stopped responding to their calls a day before they were scheduled to hold a joint press conference to announce the alliance.
The two parties then fielded their candidates for all Delhi, Punjab, Goa and Haryana seats. However, they failed to win even a single seat in Delhi, the BJP sweeping all seven seats by a 56.86% vote share. The Congress and the AAP, got 22.51% and 18.11% votes, respectively. The saffron party gained 10.46% of the votes, and Congress also gained 7.41% of the votes compared to the 2014 general elections. Meanwhile, the AAP lost 14.79% of the vote share.
Another coalition attempt was made in 2022 for the Gujarat Assembly polls. Still, the Congress rejected the idea, calling the AAP the “opponents” of Mahatma Gandhi and Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel.
The ‘INDIA’ and the AAP, Congress
During mid-2023, major opposition parties joined under a united opposition banner, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), to take on the NDA government in the 2024 general elections.
Among critical factors helping the BJP to improve its tally in every election is the division of votes among the opposition parties. The saffron party got a 31% vote share and won 282 seats in the 2014 general elections, while Congress and AAP got 44 seats and four seats with a vote share of 19.31% and 2.05%, respectively.
The equation becomes relatively poor in the 2019 general assembly elections, with BJP winning 303 seats and amassing more than one-third (37.76%) of the vote share, while the Congress and the AAP registered 19.4% and 0.44% of the vote share and 52 seats and one seat, respectively.
After experiencing defeat in two consecutive general elections, the Congress and the AAP are willing to come together to snatch seats from the BJP in the national capital.
Once a powerhouse, the Congress has been faring poorly in Delhi Assembly elections since 2013. The party secured just eight seats in the 2013 Delhi Assembly elections and decimated to zero in 2015, and the same was repeated in the 2020 Delhi Assembly elections. The vote share recorded for AAP, BJP and Congress for the Delhi Assembly elections 2013 was 29.5%, 33% and 24.6%, respectively. However, the vote share for AAP, BJP and Congress in the 2015 Delhi Assembly elections was 54.3%, 32.3% and 9.7%.
While the vote share percentage for the national party was reduced to 4.26%, BJP registered a growth of more than five per cent from the previous one.
Where the alliance stands
The AAP and the Congress have been negotiating for the past few weeks and have met twice in January to find a seat-sharing formula for Delhi, Goa, Gujarat, and Haryana. Meanwhile, AAP’s recent statement reflected that the party is tired of prolonged discussions and eager to prepare for the upcoming elections.
AAP’s Rajya Sabha MP and party General Secretary Sandeep Pathak on February 8 announced candidates for three Lok Sabha seats in Assam. On February 13, the party expressed willingness to allocate only one out of seven parliamentary seats in Delhi to Congress. It also announced candidates for two seats in Gujarat and one in Goa. The move, however, pushed the opposition alliance to the brink of collapse, but Congress insiders said they may go for a coalition once things are settled between both parties.
Expressing discontent over prolonged delay in finalising seat-sharing arrangements in various states, AAP hinted at declaring candidates for six parliamentary seats in Delhi if an agreement couldn’t be reached soon, leaving only one for Congress. Despite the Congress securing more votes than AAP in five out of the seven seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, AAP stressed Congress’ lack of representation in Delhi’s Lok Sabha and assembly seats, besides its limited success in the 2022 city municipality elections.
Reacting to the AAP offering one seat to the Congress, Delhi BJP said the AAP showed the Congress its ground situation. Delhi Congress jibed at the BJP, saying, scared of defeat in the national capital in the Lok Sabha elections, BJP is indulging in low politics by making misleading statements about the INDIA bloc.
AAP and ‘corruption’: A saga
Despite riding to power based on an anti-corruption stance and promises of clean governance, the AAP, for some time now, has been facing allegations and controversies, casting a shadow on its reputation.
From allegations in forming liquor policy to the functioning of the Mohalla Clinics, a flagship initiative of the city government, have raised serious questions about the party’s earlier standard against corruption.
In the alleged involvement in a liquor scam, reports have surfaced indicating that specific individuals with close ties to AAP leaders have been involved in irregularities related to the distribution and sale of liquor licenses. These allegations have raised concerns about corruption and favouritism within the party’s ranks.
Meanwhile, reports of irregularities, including financial mismanagement, lack of proper infrastructure, and inadequate medical supplies, have surfaced, raising doubts about the efficacy and transparency of the Mohalla Clinic programme.
Allegations against the AAP dispensation have sparked widespread criticism with opposition parties questioning its commitment to its founding principles of honesty and transparency. Supporters and city residents have expressed disappointment over the tarnishing of the party’s image.
However, AAP leaders have denied any wrongdoing and attributed the controversies to political vendetta and smear campaigns orchestrated by rival parties.
The Congress, which had earlier faced corruption allegations against its lop leaders by the AAP, is still undecided whether to go on the offensive. The upcoming elections will be a litmus test for the party’s ability to regain public confidence and restore its tarnished reputation.Under such circumstances, only time will tell whether AAP can weather the storm and emerge stronger from this tumultous period in its political life.
Chandigarh mayoral polls: A litmus test
Barely 250 km from the capital, a ‘semi-final’ match is played between INDIA bloc members, the Congress and the AAP, and the BJP in the last week of January 2024. This was a showdown before the ‘final’ in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections (if all goes well between the alliance members).
The keenly contested Chandigarh Mayor polls on January 30 this year, was won, controversially, by the BJP. The election held for the post of mayor in the Union Territory was a two-sided contest, unlike the three-sided or four-sided contest during the Punjab Assembly elections 2023. For the post of Chandigarh mayor, the Congress and the AAP allied to dethrone the BJP.
The equation was simple. In the 35-member municipal house, AAP has 13 councillors, and Congress has 7. The INDIA alliance, thus, had 20 votes against BJP’s 15 (BJP MP Kirron Kher’s vote was already added). Given the on-paper arithmetic, the alliance would have easily knocked out the saffron party from the mayor’s post, and their joint candidate would have won.
However, in a shocking turn of events, eight votes from the INDIA bloc were deemed invalid by presiding officer Anil Masih. Thus, BJP candidate Manoj Sonkar, with 16 votes against INDIA’s 12, was elected the mayor of Chandigarh.
The Congress and the AAP alleged fraud by the BJP and boycotted the elections for the post of senior deputy mayor and deputy mayor, which also went to the saffron party. The AAP,then, approached the Supreme Court, bringing allegations of poll fraud against the BJP. Currently, the apex court has ordered the preservation of the entire electoral process record and directed that the corporation’s ensuing meeting be deferred till the next hearing date.
The national party
Hardly ten years after its formation, the Aam Aadmi Party was recognised as a national party in 2023. With this recognition, the party announced its national expansion plan. The party formed governments in two states, Delhi and Punjab, and later snatched the MCD from the BJP.
Now, with the general elections around the corner, the AAP is making all efforts to show its strength at nearly 40 Lok Sabha seats in states like Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, Goa, Assam, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, etc. Party strategists aim to win at least 30 out of all the seats on which their candidates will contest. Since the party intends to play a significant role at the national level, they are drifting closer to ‘like-minded’ parties to get the desired result.
Party insiders firmly believe only a united opposition can halt the BJP’s victory for the third consecutive time; hence, there is urgent need to find common ground.
Who laughs last?
While the BJP has retained its vote share, it faces challenges in converting these votes into seats, particularly against AAP’s lucrative policies that appeal to voters, especially those in urban and semi-urban slum areas.
Efforts to form alliances, particularly between the Congress and the AAP, have been ongoing to consolidate votes against the BJP. However, disagreements over seat-sharing and ideological differences have hindered progress. The success of the opposition alliance hinges on its ability to overcome internal divisions and present a cohesive front to voters. As the general elections loom, all eyes are on the capital as AAP and the Congress strive to form a coalition to challenge the BJP myth.
Earlier Trends show the Way Ahead?
A critical factor helping BJP to improve its tally in every election is the division of votes among opposition parties. Having lost two consecutive general elections, Congress and the AAP are willing to join forces to grab BJP seats in Delhi.
The Chandigarh Dispute
The arithmetic in the Chandigarh mayoral polls indicated a victory for the alliance. However, in a shocking turn of events, eight votes from the INDIA bloc were deemed invalid by presiding officer Anil Masih. Thus, BJP candidate Manoj Sonkar, with 16 votes against INDIA’s 12, was elected the mayor of Chandigarh. The Congress and the AAP alleged poll fraud by the BJP.
Alliance on the cards?
Despite facing setbacks in recent elections, both Congress and the AAP are resolute in their determination to collaborate for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. However, AAP’s governance has been marred by controversies, including allegations of corruption, which have damaged its credibility. This underscores the urgency for AAP to rebuild public trust and posit itself as a viable alternative to the BJP.
