BJP needs Baniya, Punjabi votes to win

If the 34 Baniya-Punjabi seats once again go in the favour of Arvind Kejriwal, the chances for the saffron party returning to power after 27 years would remain very remote.
 Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a public meeting ahead of the Delhi Assembly election, at RK Puram in New Delhi.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a public meeting ahead of the Delhi Assembly election, at RK Puram in New Delhi.Photo | PTI
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In the general poll narrative it’s often heard that it’s the Purvanchalis (migrants who came from eastern UP and other Hindi speaking states), Dalits and minorities who are responsible for Bharatiya Janata Party’s defeat in Delhi in the past six assembly elections since 1998. In the same vein, it said that BJP could sweep the Lok Sabha polls in 1999, 2014, 2019 and 2024, winning seven out of seven seats riding on the popular support of its natural constituents – Punjabi, Baniya and the Sikh voters.

If one were to closely scrutinise the vote related data of the Lok Sabha and the assembly polls in the national Capital, one would realise that the matter much in black and white as mentioned in the above narration but there are several areas of grey. The story is that while the natural voters of the non-BJP block remain with it, the natural voters of the BJP that is Punjabis, Baniyas and Sikhs, shift loyalty from the saffron party in the Lok Sabha polls to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the assembly polls.

There are 34 assembly seats in the national Capital, which has a dominant Punjabi-Baniya presence. During the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP establishes huge leads from these assembly segments. However, in the Vidhan Sabha elections, in the last two polls, the BJP could win just one (Rohini) out of the 34 seats. In the last assembly polls in 2020, the remaining seven BJP seats came from the constituencies which have strong Purvanchali presence.

The remaining seven seats won by the BJP in 2020 were – Karawal Nagar, Ghonda, Rohtash Nagar, Laxmi Nagar, Gandhi Nagar, Vishwas Nagar and Badarpur. All these seats have substantive presence of the Purvanchali and Dalit voters, who even at the height of the wave in the favour of the Aam Aadmi Party went against the trend to support the Bharatiya Janata Party.

What is most bewildering is the performance of the BJP candidates on the seats falling within Chandni Chowk parliamentary segment. There are 10 assembly seats in this segment. Of these two seats – Matia Mahal and Ballimaran, are minority dominated. The remaining eight are typical Baniya-Punjabi seats.

On some of these seats their voter percentage is as high as 57 percent. Several organisations of the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) are located in these areas and has a large presence of their cadres. These seats are replete with parks where regular ‘shakhas’ (meetings) of the RSS cadres are held. Despite such presence, in 2020 of these eight seats, BJP could win none. Are the migrant, Dalit and minority voters to be blamed for the saffron party’s pathetic performance on these seats?

These indicators showcase the need for a changed strategy from the past two polls for the BJP on the polling day this time. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has tried to establish contact with the booth level workers of the party by addressing them through the NaMo app. This has been done under what the party calls the ‘MeraBoothSabseMajboot’ programme.

Literarily translated, the slogan means my booth the strongest. This is the mantra which the Prime Minister has tried to drive into the thought process of the party workers. Studying the data and performances in the past assembly and parliament polls, the BJP will have to adopt an aggressive strategy on the polling day.

An analysis of the data, discounting the presence and the performance of the Congress in the polls, the BJP leaders and cadres would have to work towards raising the voter turnout to over 70 percent, and ensure that the majority of voters reaching the booth are their voters. This is what the Prime Minister had indicated through his dialogue with the voters.

The other scenario, which could help the BJP, is the improved performance by the Congress party. Though there are several Congress candidates who are putting up a very strong fight but how much would that materialise into seats is something which is not assessable as of now. In the event of their performance improving by several notches, it could give rise to an interesting post-poll scenario.

The crux of the analysis is that if the BJP has to win in the elections, its victory march should start from the 34 Baniya-Punjabi seats. If these seats once again go in the favour of Arvind Kejriwal, the chances for the saffron party returning to power after 27 years would remain very remote.

Sidharth Mishra

Author and president, Centre for Reforms, Development & Justice

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