HYDERABAD: As the clamour of the GHMC elections died down this week after the announcement of the final results, JVC Sreeram from Hyderabad feels it is the right time to talk about how his predictions about the results turned out to be right.
“My first prediction in public was for 2019 elections. My first tweets were from April 24, 2019, saying BJP would cross 300+ seats. A few hours before the exit poll was to be released on May 19, 2019, by 4:30 pm, I tweeted disclosing my figure which was BJP - 302+ & INC - 53.
The final tally was BJP - 303 and INC 52,” says Sreeram. In a tweet dated December 2 at 1.36 pm, Sreeram predicted that BJP will win 44-52, TRS 51-58, MIM 36-39. He added that he predicts this with 95 percent coincidence and went on to add that ‘with 75 pc confidence’ he predicts BJP will win 57+, TRS 47+ and MIM will win 38. Finally, TRS won RS: 55, BJP won 48, AIMIM got 44 and Congress 2. He believes that his consistently close to correct predictions have earned him credibility.
About how he goes about announcing his numbers, he explains, “I have my network of people whom I have trained mostly professionals across the country. I do sampling with my network. I also travel to places and speak with opinion makers and the public to gauge the mood of the public.
Secondly, I go by past vote share and seat share calculations. Once I am able to ascertain the swing. I collate the numbers. I use a simple Excel sheet and not AI.” He had started this from the 2004 Lok Sabha elections.
While he got the predictions for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, 2020 Bihar elections and 2020 GHMC elections result right, he also admits to going ‘horribly wrong’ for the 2020 - Delhi Assembly elections. An international keynote speaker, corporate trainer, Sreeram has been a keen observer of politics from the age of 17 as a student in computer science and engineering.
— Manju Latha Kalanidhi kalanidhi@newindianexpress.com @mkalanidhi