KOCHI: In recent times, we have seen the weather forecast in Kerala going for a toss. There has been a drastic increase in extreme weather conditions and the hapless weatherman has been caught in a whirl.
Over the past four years, thanks to climate change, there has been a clear shift in the rain patterns in Kerala. Extreme rainfall is becoming a common phenomenon, and the state has been bearing the brunt of calamities such as flash floods and landslides.
Though the India Meteorology Department (IMD) has scaled up its observational network in the state, the shortage of staff remains a major challenge. Also, the Centre is yet to grant sanction to the proposal to instal one more radar system in Kannur.
Currently, there are only two radar units in Kochi and Thiruvananthapuram. Data from Kochi is collated and analysed in the state capital. The radar system is functional only for five days from 10am to 4pm, says an official of the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA).
“The southern districts, especially Thiruvananthapuram, are more vulnerable to effects of climate change,” notes the official. “We have been urging the IMD to make the radar system operational 24/7. Now, the predictions are limited to a few hours. Weather patterns change drastically these days. Untoward incidents involving fisherfolk can be avoided with timely alerts.”
More radar systems needed
According to KSDMA, the existing radar system fails to cover the entire state. Hence, one more system needs to be installed in the northern states to give more accurate predictions for vulnerable districts, including Wayanad and Kannur.
“Some days, the IMD changes predictions multiple times,” says the official. “We have drawn up certain protocols for each alert based on the intensity of the rain. It gets chaotic when there are frequent changes. Also, the warnings are not issued in Malayalam. They issue alerts in English, with all technical jargon that the common people don’t understand.”
‘100% accuracy impossible’
Currently, the IMD forecast is issued for five days. This includes district-wise broadcasts, and warnings for fishermen on rain and cyclonic disturbances. The agency has also introduced impact-based forecasting on the chances of landslides, flooding, etc. It also gives regular feeds to the Central Water Commission, which issues flood warnings.
K Santhosh, the head of the IMD’s regional centre in Thiruvananthapuram, says it is impossible to achieve 100% accuracy in predictions. “Kerala has a tropical climate, and our predictions can be precise to only some extent,” he says. “We have been ensuring 70 to 80 per cent accuracy, despite the challenges. There may be criticism, but we are doing our job without fail.”
Santhosh adds the radar system in Thiruvananthapuram is operated by Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre. “We have requested them to operate the radar system 24/7. They have been working flexibly based on our demands,” he says.
On setting up a radar unit in north Kerala, Santhosh says “the Centre has to decide”. “We have placed a proposal to set up one in Kannur,” he adds. “We have identified probable sites; the approval and funds should come from the Centre, and experts have to inspect the sites. We are following it up.”
Staff shortage
The IMD has set up 100 automatic weather stations (AWS) in Kerala to improve data gathering and predictions. However, IMD officials say the agency faces scarcity of staff. “We are already short-staffed and lack the resources to maintain weather stations,” says Santhosh.
“The operation and maintenance of AWS would be taken care of for five years by a private party. After that, we will need at least 14 officers for maintaining the stations. We have requested the Centre to fill the vacancies.”
Notably, about 565 scientific assistant posts are lying vacant at IMD regional offices across India, according to sources. Santhosh says IMD “staff work extra hours” during harsh weather conditions. “We need to give cyclonic storm alerts every three hours. It gets quite tedious,” he adds.