KOCHI: While multiple landslides rushed down the hills, destroying everything in its paths, in the Mundakkai region in Wayanad, Malayalis around the state came with helping hands. While some donated food and other aid, some donated money to the Chief Minister’s Distress Relief Fund (CMDRF), and then looked to the future, by analysing and studying the phenomenon.
What three research analysts from Kochi did was study the monsoon and its changes. The startup Infocrita Data Solutions by Parthiev K S, Litty Adens and Kripa Jose used data in the past ten years to address one contributing factor to landslides in Kerala — the rain pattern. The trio’s finding cautions Kerala to prepare better for future monsoons as rain turns increasingly volatile each season.
The researchers behind the study, alumni of Rajagiri College of Social Sciences, met while pursuing postgraduate degrees in statistics with data science. Parthiev and Litty were classmates, while Kripa was their junior. After completing their Msc course, together, they founded their start-up to focus on socially relevant issues with comprehensive reports accompanied by visualisations while simplifying complex data for the public.
The trio chose the Olympics as their first theme. That is when disaster struck Wayanad. “So, we prioritised our study on rain due to the severity of the Wayanad landslides,” says the trio.
“Mundakkai is part of the ecologically sensitive Western Ghats area and has a terrain inclined by 20 degrees. Continuous rainfall above 100mm can almost certainly lead to landslides here. The area recently received continuous heavy rainfall, with of 200mm and 372mm recorded on consecutive days,” explains Parthiev.
The region faced an unusual combination of triggers and soil conditions, he adds. The exceptionally hot summer had dried out the soil, making it more prone to erosion once the rains began, he says.
However, not just this year, the monsoon season over the past decade has become increasingly unpredictable and dangerous. Furthermore, Kerala’s relationship with the monsoon has evolved into one of extremes, the report titled ‘A Decade of Deadly Extremes and Unpredictable Weather Patterns’ explains.
“Kerala is one of the most rain-dependent regions in India for its rich biodiversity and scenic landscapes,” explains Parthiev.
However, data from the Kerala-WRIS (Water Resource Information System) highlights significant fluctuations in rainfall patterns from 2018 to 2024, revealing a worrying trend of both excess and deficit rainfall. “These changes have led to a series of catastrophic events, claiming hundreds of lives and causing widespread destruction,” says the study.
The study delves deep into the rain pattern during the catastrophic flood of 2018 and the subsequent one in 2019. In 2019, after the massive deluge of 2018, the state recorded rainfall of approximately 3,009 mm — closer to the annual norm and not seem particularly extraordinary at first glance. “However, intense concentration of rainfall in specific regions in August 2019 led to a series of devastating landslides,” the trio says in the report.
The most harrowing event occurred in Puthumala, Wayanad, where a massive landslide struck, burying entire houses and claiming 17 lives. “Not far away, in Kavalapara, Nilambur, another landslide claimed 59 lives, marking it as one of the deadliest in the state’s recent history. These incidents highlight how the hilly terrain, coupled with excessive rainfall, creates perfect conditions for disasters.”
The study report notes that in 2020, the state recorded 2,865 mm of rainfall, slightly below the long-term average. Yet, it became another challenging season, marked by a series of deadly landslides, including the Pettimudi landslide in Idukki. Torrential downpours triggered a massive landslide in Pettimudi on August 6, resulting in the loss of 66 lives and burying the quarters of four tea plantation workers under meters of mud and debris. The area received excessive rainfall, with intensity reaching 200mm in a single day, creating conditions ripe for such a disaster.
In 2021, Kerala experienced unprecedented rainfall, marking one of the wettest years in the state’s recorded history. It was also another year of a series of tragic events, particularly landslides in the hilly districts of Idukki and Kottayam. The most devastating incidents occurred in Kokkayar, Idukki, and the regions of Plappally and Kavali near Kottayam, burying houses and causing significant loss of life and property.
In 2022, there was a slight moderation in overall rainfall, but this reduction did not equate to a decrease in the severity of the weather, the report explains. A landslide in Thodupuzha, a hilly region in the Idukki district, resulted in the deaths of five people and caused significant damage to homes and infrastructure. Whereas, in 2023, the state witnessed far below normal rainfall, leading to water shortages and a drought situation.
The study report also suggests that we must use the lessons learned from these past years to guide
planning and preparations. Strengthen early warning systems, enforce land-use regulations, restore natural landscapes, and heed the recommendations of environmental reports to mitigate risks, the trio explains in their start-up’s first such study.