Reshape cost-benefit calculus of terror for long-term deterrence
The message is unambiguous: it can no longer be business as usual with Pakistan. Pahalgam marked the worst terrorist attack since the 26/11 Mumbai carnage. And again, the cross-border nexus is undeniable—Pakistan stands exposed as both a sponsor and a sanctuary for terror groups.
The Pahalgam attack was also an assault on India’s unity and Kashmir’s hard-earned calm following the abrogation of Article 370. However, it failed in its sinister objective of sowing communal discord in Kashmir. Instead, it drew an unprecedented wave of condemnations.
From the grieving families to the streets of Srinagar, the public mood was defiant, united and resolute. The people of Kashmir stood shoulder to shoulder with fellow Indians.
When PM Narendra Modi spoke about the nature of the response, first at a rally in Bihar and later on his radio show, it reflected the nation’s mood. At a high-level meeting on Tuesday, he granted the armed forces operational freedom to choose the timing, method and target of any punitive response.
His message to the global community, too, was clear: India will identify, trace and punish the terrorists and their enablers. The opposition seems resolutely behind the government on this.
Diplomatic and economic levers have been activated. India has suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty. Pakistan has belligerently labelled the move an “act of war”. In a further escalation, Islamabad has threatened to withdraw from the 1972 Simla Agreement—the very accord that defines the Line of Control and frames Kashmir as a bilateral issue.
These are desperate reactions from a state cornered by its own duplicity. India has also slashed Pakistan’s diplomatic presence in Delhi, shut down a border crossing, and suspended visa services for Pakistani nationals. Pakistan, in turn, has mirrored these actions.
It’s now time to move into the realm of decisive deterrence. India must recalibrate its strategic posture toward a neighbour that openly employs terrorism as an instrument of state policy.
Any response, particularly a military one, must be grounded in a clear-eyed assessment of the risks, the credibility of deterrence, and alignment with long-term objectives. This is not about any immediate retribution, but about reshaping the cost-benefit calculus for those who believe they can bleed India without consequence.
The Pahalgam massacre is a line in the sand. The time for half-measures is over. It’s time for India to act with a long-term strategy and clarity of purpose.