When US President Donald Trump recently gave Russia 50 days to end the Ukraine war, while simultaneously threatening a 100 percent secondary tariff on big nations like India, China and Brazil for importing Moscow’s cheaper crude, there was hardly a ripple in the global oil markets. For, bourses have learnt to live with Trump’s eccentric pronouncements, perhaps because of his tendency to bark but not bite when push comes to shove. Trump is anyway averse to high crude prices, given its inflationary pressures. Analysts say such secondary tariffs could send crude prices flying from under $70 now to $130 a barrel, as it would suck out Russia’s share—10 percent of the global oil output—from the market. Besides, working on a bilateral trade pact with the US, which Trump keeps trumpeting at every available opportunity, makes little sense under the shadow of a possible secondary levy. Yet, here we are, racing to arrive at an India-US pact before the August 1 deadline set by Trump.
Amid the trade turmoil came the welcome gesture of the US state department designating Lashkar-e-Taiba’s offshoot, The Resistance Front (TRF), as a foreign terrorist organisation and a specially designated global terrorist outfit. The TRF had claimed responsibility for the Pahalgam terror attack, which set off the four-day India-Pakistan clash. Such is the mixed messaging on the intent of the Trump administration on a deal with India.
Nato chief Mark Rutte echoing his master’s voice on secondary tariff was more of an irritant, as India cautioned him against double standards in global energy policies. Letting the European Union source gas from Russia while penalising other nations smacks of an appalling policy slant. India is one of the largest importers of Russian crude oil, sold at a price cap of $60 a barrel, significantly below market rates. At present, it accounts for 42 percent of the country’s total oil imports, or around 2.08 million barrels per day.
However, there can be no rational responses to quixotic exclamations like making others pay for US policy failure on ending the Ukraine war. India must continue with its strategic autonomy, stare back at the bully and face the situation as it presents itself. Reviving the Russia-India-China trilateral dialogue could be a diplomatic way forward.