As India resumes direct flights to China after a five-year freeze, a far more urgent challenge is emerging on its western flank. The long-dormant Sir Creek dispute with Pakistan has flared again—this time, with far more serious implications.
What was once dismissed as a dispute over a 96-km stretch of uninhabited marshland now risks becoming a flashpoint for confrontation—should Pakistan choose provocation, emboldened by the prospect of Chinese backing, or its own ballooning military bravado.
Islamabad is again asserting claims over the creek despite India’s clear legal and historical position supported by midchannel markers and international principles. However, this should not be seen as a cartographic quarrel. Pakistan has begun expanding military infrastructure in the area—a familiar playbook of creeping escalation.
What makes this moment more dangerous is the deepening convergence between Pakistani adventurism and Chinese military enablement.
Over four-fifths of Pakistan’s arsenal comes from China. From HQ-9 and HQ-16 surface-to-air missile systems to JY27A radars and Wing Loong drones, China is not just arming Pakistan but actively shaping its battlefield posture, too. Even though many of these systems failed to perform during the May 2025 clashes—jammed radars, downed drones, breached air defences—Pakistan has not recalibrated.
Instead, it has doubled down, procuring even more advanced Chinese systems, including microwave weapons and airborne early warning aircraft. In June, Pakistan announced that China had offered to sell it a new arsenal of cutting-edge weaponry, including 40 of its latest fifth-generation J-35 stealth fighters and advanced ballistic missile defence systems.
The larger concern is strategic. In a future conflict, it is not unthinkable for the Chinese army to play a vital role in managing escalation and trying to keep hostilities below the nuclear threshold—on terms that favour China.
With Field Marshal Asim Munir now the single point of military authority in Pakistan, decisions are expected to be faster. Sir Creek is no longer a peripheral irritant; it could well become a trigger for a two-front conflict. India cannot afford to be caught underprepared. The air force needs to induct 35-40 jets annually to meet its operational needs.
Indigenous production, AI integration, and battlefield automation must move at war footing; Hindustan Aeronautics must pick up pace in delivering on long-gestating projects. The flights to China will resume—but complacency must not.