India needs to learn coping with an increasingly ageing population. That’s the message contained in the latest Sample Registration Survey report. The data show that the nation’s total fertility rate (TFR) has decreased to 1.9 in 2023, after remaining constant at 2.0 in 2021 and 2022. At the same time, TFR for rural India has touched 2.1—the replacement level where births and deaths balance out each other, leading to population stability. While the fall in TFR is a significant demographic marker for India catching up with global population trends, this poses a new challenge for the country as a whole, though some regions like the south have been dealing with an ageing population for some time now.
The implications of ageing demographic are significant and enduring. While the initial phase of low fertility certainly comes with a demographic dividend—a larger working-age population—in the long run, an ageing population poses major socio-economic challenges. A fall in the working-age population and a rise in the dependent population can hurt productivity and overburden the healthcare sector. It surely necessitates changes in systems and policies.
India is caught between a present opportunity and a future worry—and must be prepared to deal with both. The current age distribution is a window of opportunity for growth that could last another couple of decades. It’s what comes later that warrants some meticulous planning. And while planning, India should take into account the disparity in population trends across the country. For example, Kerala’s fertility rate has been declining since 1971, and it is already dealing with the challenge of the growing elderly numbers and a shrinking working-age population.
There are pointers for the country in how Kerala is handling the situation. Apart from its health and entrepreneurial schemes targeted at the elderly and projects to strengthen geriatric and palliative care, Kerala’s Senior Citizens Commission, formed recently to ensure the welfare and protection of senior citizens, and the proposed Kerala State Policy for Elder Persons, 2025, which promises a ‘Kerala model of ageing’ through participation of local bodies, healthcare providers and non-governmental organisations, are worth a look. India must formulate policies and allocate adequate resources to address the unique needs of a growing elderly population and deal with the potential economic and social implications.