Heat-wave conditions have already gripped large parts of peninsular, central and eastern India. The national weather office has warned the country is entering a scorching summer of ‘above-normal’ heat conditions. There has been a continuous flow of warnings that heat waves—when temperatures are 4.5°C above normal or cross 45°C on consecutive days—will blaze through India in the April-June period. State and local governments have been asked to gear up to ensure that people stay indoors, and stock fodder and water for livestock to avoid casualties.
The crisis is real. As climate changes the world over, heat conditions are worsening with every passing summer. Year 2023 was the hottest by far and broke many climate records, noted a World Meteorological Organization report published this March. This year is likely to be even tougher, with greenhouse gas levels increasing and ocean temperatures rising.
In the more immediate context, the coming Lok Sabha elections—spread over a sweltering six-week period from April 19 to June 1—will be a huge health challenge. The risks involved were demonstrated exactly a year ago, when 11 persons died of heat stroke while attending an official Maharashtra government award ceremony in Khargar, Navi Mumbai in an open college ground. To avoid such tragedies when people queue up to cast their votes, protected waiting areas and plenty of drinking water will have to be provided to keep the voters hydrated. The election machinery will need to be efficient so that long queues are avoided. Voting hours can perhaps be staggered so that people can cast their votes soon after sunrise or after sundown.
On the broader economic front, the brunt of the blistering heat will be faced by farmers. Extreme heat leads to early maturity of grains without ripening to normal levels, leading to a 15-20 percent fall in production. This can worsen the food inflation we have been experiencing for the last few months. There is no escape for the urban consumer either, who is likely to face a 10-15 percent rise in milk prices as animals remain thirsty and under-productive. The only silver lining in an otherwise bleak weather scenario is that there has been a partial withdrawal of El Niño, a global phenomenon that can stymie monsoon rainfall. This has improved the possibility of the rains coming on time.