Just when it seemed Indian aviation was ready to soar again, a number of events have taken the wind off its tail. Late last year, industry watchers were rejoicing about the surge in post-pandemic ‘revenge tourism’, record plane orders by India’s top two carriers, and the revival of a number of unserved airports under the government’s UDAN scheme. But the mood changed early this year.
On January 8, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation issued a new set of duty time guidelines, revising the maximum weekly duty hours and minimum rest for pilots. This upset most airlines, who said they would need to hire 15-20 percent more pilots. The newest operator, Akasa Air, reiterated it was well placed to adhere to the new norms but trimmed by a fifth its budget for 2024-25, its first year of flying abroad. Last week, under pressure from pilots complaining about new salary structures, Vistara announced it would be reducing 25-30 daily flights through April. And all along, fliers have been bemoaning a sharp rise in airfares.
The cancellations explain only a part of the fare rise. Jet fuel, which accounts for about a third of an airline’s costs, is more expensive this year. A weaker rupee has meant that dollar-denominated aircraft leases have become costlier. The market corrects itself to some extent—plane loads fell when fares zoomed before last Diwali. But it cannot be a long-term mechanism to stop fares from flying into the stratosphere.
One way is to rationalise the routes to balance demand-supply on the one hand, and the government’s push to connect under-served locations on the other. Limiting the number of seats fliers have to pay to pick is another way. A longer-term approach would require incentivising having as many operators as are commercially viable. At the moment, Air India and IndiGo have cornered almost two-thirds of the market between them. Helping grounded airline Go First negotiate its protracted insolvency proceeding would go some way.
The consideration that trumps all others is passenger safety—the government’s concern when revising the duty norms for the first time since April 2019 to address pilot fatigue from overwork. On Wednesday, the government asked the airlines to suggest a new deadline for the norms. One way or another, the industry will have to plan better—that’s the plain truth.