In one of his most memorable speeches, Atal Bihari Vajpayee reminded the nation, “Democracy is a game of numbers.” His party, the BJP, has come a long way since the 1996 speech and has set its sights on crossing the 400-mark along with allies in the forthcoming elections. For this, it needs as many friends as possible. It is in this context that one needs to look at TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu’s meeting with Home Minister Amit Shah on Wednesday.
Naidu has a history with the BJP, having courted and dumped it twice. The interesting part is that he won elections whenever he was in the BJP-led NDA. A historic blunder in 2019 saw him sail with the Congress, with disastrous results. Facing a do or die battle, he is back to wooing the saffron bosses.
Does the BJP need him as much as he needs the BJP? The saffron party is a fringe party in Andhra with just 1 percent vote share, though it may have gone up a few notches after the Ayodhya mandir. But even 1 percent can matter—in 2014, the TDP-BJP’s victory margin over the YSRC was marginal.
Naidu knows the TDP alone cannot take down the YSRC. He has roped in actor Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena, which is in the NDA. If he gets Narendra Modi’s support too, he can be more confident. Failure isn’t an option as a second term in the opposition could throw his party into an irrecoverable position. The BJP’s calculations are obviously more focused on the Lok Sobha than the assembly. It has been enjoying the tacit support of both YSRC and TDP since 2019 without having to ally with either. The question is, would it want to distance itself from Jagan, who is considered more reliable than Naidu?
The BJP would stand to gain if it gets, say, 8-10 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats from the TDP. Winning even half the number would help the party strike roots in Andhra. But any alliance with the TDP is likely to be exploited by the BRS and Congress in the neighbouring Telangana, where the BJP is keen on taking a big leap. A careful cost-benefit analysis is called for. A hard bargain from the BJP will put Naidu in a Hamletian dilemma—and given his past with the party, it is likely.