It is common for politicians to rebel and switch sides if their aspirations are frustrated. In Andhra Pradesh, this routine is playing out among the ruling YSRC, opposition TDP and the latter’s ally, actor Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena. While the YSRC and TDP are going about the issue with clarity and maturity, Jana Sena is facing a severe backlash. This has implications not only for the actor, but also the TDP.
The TDP conceded 24 assembly and three Lok Sabha seats to its ally. It is in talks with the BJP as well to seal a tri-partite deal. Its calculation is that the alliance would have a good chance of dislodging Chief Minister Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy. It is banking on the star power of Pawan Kalyan and his community, the Kapu, to swing the votes. Jana Sena’s vote share is expected to go up from the 5.5 percent it clocked in 2019.
In addition, given the hype surrounding Pawan Kalyan, his followers expected more out of the alliance. Hence the uproar following the pact should have been anticipated; but it seems both the star and his close aides are taken aback. Many of his cadre and Kapu community leaders are visibly upset, accusing him of working only to make TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu the chief minister.
Pawan did himself no favours by asking them not to question him. What he has conveniently ignored is that many followers stuck to him over the last decade in the hope of seeing their own prospects soar one day alongside the party’s. What is even more appalling is his admission that his party has no organisational strength, viable candidates or booth agents in every constituency—which only points to his and his aides’ failure in the last, or rather the lost, decade.
If the BJP, which we understand is reluctant to bolster the TDP, comes around, it will only be on its own terms, unlike the Jana Sena. Though the BJP’s vote share is marginal, it is likely to bargain hard for seats, making things a bit difficult for the TDP. With these factors playing out, it is no wonder that some TDP leaders are ruing the very idea of the alliance. If Pawan fails to control the flames of dissent, vote transfer would remain a pipe dream.