YSRC chief and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy appears to have drawn a few lessons from the recent electoral debacle of the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) supremo K Chandrasekhar Rao in Telangana. Despite the anti-incumbency headwind of two tenures, the latter chose to go to polls with more or less the same face and paid the price for it. Though Jagan is not exactly in the same boat, he has chosen to go in for a massive reorganisation as his first stint in power draws to a close this April, dropping several sitting legislators. It prompted three MPs to quit the party in protest. If reports are to be believed, Jagan could well drop 40-50 sitting MLAs.
This begs the question whether he is being overcautious or is concerned that anti-incumbency could deny him a second consecutive term. Whatever the case, the YSRC chief’s move makes clear a few things. First, he has neither depended on nor given powers to MLAs after his landslide victory in 2019. He believes his image and track-record in executing welfare schemes will help him retain power.
Second, he does not seem worried that the opposition TDP and its ally Jana Sena are increasingly becoming aggressive, consolidating the numerically strong Kapu community and drafting a joint manifesto including more freebies. Neither does he seem bothered about his own sister Y S Sharmila taking him on in her new role as the state Congress president. But, unlike 2019, the forthcoming elections will definitely be tough for him, facing as he does a pincer attack from the opposition.
Jagan is banking on giving a big chunk of seats to the backward classes, SCs, STs and minorities. It is a good strategy that seeks to portray the YSRC as the party of the downtrodden up against the ‘capitalist’ TDP. The opposition will also find itself in a spot as it concludes its exercise of seat-sharing with the Jana Sena. The BJP, which has been silent, has a spring in its step after the pran pratishtha in Ayodhya, and may well play spoilsport if it manages to increase its vote share even marginally. It has its cards close to its chest for now. If it decides to go with the TDP, the YSRC will face an uphill task. Any which way one looks, Jagan has quite a challenge at hand.