Deliverables in Modi’s proposed Ukraine visit
As optics go, the widely speculated visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Ukraine next month could draw the biggest global eyeballs, especially after his Moscow trip earlier this month drew negative vibes from the Western bloc. Moscow was Modi’s first port of call after beating anti-incumbency for the third consecutive time to lead the nation, a rarity in a functioning democracy. His warm embrace of President Vladimir Putin that day turned out to be a PR disaster as a Russian missile had by mistake flattened a children’s hospital in Ukraine hours ago. Outspoken Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had shared his dismay over Modi’s timing, saying it was a devastating blow to the peace efforts.
US diplomat Donald Lu, too, expressed disappointment, drawing a loaded barb from the Indian foreign office, which said the country was free to decide whom it wanted to connect with. If Modi’s one-liner last year to Putin saying this is not the era of war, was universally hailed, this time around he said peace does not flow from the battlefield. A Kremlin spokesperson had shared that Modi floated some peace proposals during his dialogue with Putin but didn’t elaborate. The prime minister can be expected to bring them up if he were to land in Kyiv, his first to the war-torn country since the Russian invasion in 2022. Foreign minister S Jaishankar is said to have already done some spadework for the Ukrainian bilateral.
After more than two years of bloodshed, both sides realise they are locked in a bruising war neither can decisively win. Putin’s Western isolation has not harmed him and his economy. But his continuous pounding of Ukraine hasn’t broken its spirit either. The tough part now is to formulate win-win rules of disengagement. While Putin intends to stay put on the grabbed land, Zelenskyy wants complete withdrawal of the occupation forces. Ukraine’s NATO door is also wide open.
Hungarian premier Viktor Orban did some shuttle diplomacy in Kyiv, Moscow and Beijing, but was discarded by the West as a Putin stooge. China suggested the setting up of a Russia-Ukraine talks table. But it’s not a neutral player. Besides, if Donald Trump were to win the US elections, it could change the Ukraine dynamics. Modi’s proposed visit would come amid such complexities. If he could yet find an acceptable middle ground, it would serve the global good.