Kerala has often shown a tendency to vote differently from the rest of the nation. In 2019, it was the only state to elect non-BJP candidates in all its 20 Lok Sabha seats when the rest of the country voted the BJP back to power with its largest ever tally. Now, with the LDF, UDF and BJP having finalised their candidate lists, the state is back in the election mood.
The 2024 election, in many ways, is a make-or-break tussle for all three fronts. The Congress-led UDF, which had swept the 2019 elections by winning all but one seat, is hoping against hope to repeat the feat. The state Congress unit, which is yet to recover from its humiliating defeat in the 2021 assembly elections, needs an emphatic victory to stay afloat.
The defections to the BJP of former Chief Minister K Karunakaran’s daughter Padmaja Venugopal and of Congress veteran A K Antony’s son Anil Antony have affected the party’s morale in a deeper way than the party leadership would like to admit. It also has dented the trust the state’s minority communities, especially Muslims, had towards the Congress.
The LDF, too, needs a convincing victory if it is to swim against the strong waves of anti-incumbency washing across the state. It is for all to see that the state’s finances are in a mess. The Enforcement Directorate’s unearthing of financial misappropriation worth crores of rupees in the cooperative sector and the corruption allegation against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s daughter are not helping either. The CPM has another reason to try and win as many seats as possible from Kerala, because its national party status depends on it.
That the BJP is yet to win any seat from the state—except a lone assembly seat in 2016—is something that has always hurt the collective ego of the saffron party. Seemingly determined to assuage its feelings this time, the BJP has put its best foot forward.
The party knows too well that winning at least one seat and improving its vote share is pertinent for its long-term plan for the state that has always looked the other way. What remains to be seen is whether Kerala will retain its electoral uniqueness, or turn to look the way the rest of the country is.