When electoral fortunes swing at the slimmest of margins, a close look at the contributors of the incremental votes and the other accompanying factors is warranted. Take Haryana. With just 0.9 percent addition to its vote share vis-a-vis the 2019 assembly polls, the BJP snatched a handsome victory from the jaws of defeat and retained power. In Maharashtra, the accretion in the BJP vote share as compared to its performance in the Lok Sabha elections six months ago was barely 0.59 percent. Yet, it posted its best-ever performance with 132 seats, 13 short of a simple majority in a 288-member assembly. In the process, it notched up a stunning 89 percent strike rate (seats fought vs won) against the Congress’ 16.
The general elections gave the BJP a wake-up call as it had slumped to nine Lok Sabha seats from 23 in 2019. The debacle prompted a reset and persuaded the party to rollout pro-poor programmes like the Ladki Bahin scheme of a monthly dole to 2.2 crore women, an adaptation of a Congress idea. Synergising its foot soldiers with the RSS network established booth-level connectivity to get every possible vote polled.
As stellar as the BJP’s performance was that of both its allies, the Shiv Sena led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and the NCP of Ajit Pawar with strike rates of 71.3 percent and 69.5 percent, respectively. Caste consolidation happened and the scare of constitutional shake-up to deny quotas wore off. Voters snubbed the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance that was high on ambition to lead the government but lacked internal harmony. There was no visible fire in the Congress belly, content as it was with working for the dynasty’s personal glory.
How else does one explain the disproportionate attention of party big hitters in Wayanad for Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s sureshot seat when better time management could have bettered its prospects elsewhere. Multiple rallies of Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka got cancelled in Maharashtra for various reasons.
Jharkhand was a study in contrast, as the JMM was charged up following the arrest of Chief Minister Hemant Soren by the Enforcement Directorate in a land fraud. It spawned the emergence of his spouse Kalpana as the biggest vote catcher in the tribal belt. His emphatic victory is an object lesson on how to play the game right in the face of an existential crisis.