A political hot potato is in the making much before the Centre takes a final call on the long-pending delimitation process. The scheduled redrawing of parliament constituency boundaries based on population is now at the heart of a raging political controversy in Tamil Nadu and the rest of South India after the state’s CM called for an all-party meeting on March 5, claiming the exercise hangs over the southern states like the sword of Damocles. M K Stalin believes these are the BJP’s machinations to run the country with the support of the increased number of MPs coming from the Hindi heartland and royally ignore states governed by opposition parties. The political storm Stalin kicked up ahead of next year’s state elections fits perfectly with his anti-Hindi and anti-BJP tirade.
Home Minister Amit Shah’s assertion that southern states would not see reduced parliamentary representation has not cut any ice with them. There is no clarity yet on the term of reference. Will it be based on population or a pro-rata basis on existing Lok Sabha seats? There are no quick answers. Karnataka and Telangana have responded quickly to the call to unite against the Delhi move. Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah called Shah’s claim “not trustworthy”. His Telangana counterpart, A Revanth Reddy, accused the BJP of using delimitation as a pretext to secure ‘permanent’ power by increasing seats in ‘BIMARU’ states while diminishing South’s political significance.
In general, delimitation is directly proportional to size. It means states with larger populations get more representatives in parliament. Currently grappling with a population explosion, northern states may end up in that category, while southern states with effective population control may see reduced representation. India’s population may reach 142 crore by 2026, and the delimitation process based on the new census may increase the Lok Sabha seat count of Tamil Nadu by a few. The back-of-the-envelope calculation shows Karnataka may see a minor increase while Kerala, with the slowest population growth, may lose a seat. Fears are that states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar could see a substantial 50 percent jump in their Lok Sabha seats, making South India increasingly insignificant in parliament. That would mean a slap in the face of the states that effectively implemented population control in the nation’s interest.