The past week highlighted how rapidly international relations can shift, instantly upending expectations. After President Donald Trump claimed the European Union was formed to hurt American interests, his verbal skirmish with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sent US-Europe relations down a slithery slope of unease. On the third anniversary marking the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US aligned with Russia twice at the UN, signalling a shift away from Europe, unwaveringly and unequivocally. First, the US opposed a European-drafted resolution condemning Moscow and supporting Ukraine’s territorial integrity, voting alongside Russia, North Korea, and Belarus in the UN General Assembly. Then, the US proposed a resolution in the Security Council to end the conflict but refrained from criticising Russia. The week culminated in a strong display of European unity in London, marked by a bold yet difficult-to-implement pledge to wrest control of the Russia-Ukraine war negotiations from the US.
The implications of the deepening US-Europe rift are historic and point to an uncertain future. The claim that the European Union was created primarily to strengthen the Cold War West in its rivalry with the Soviet Union is historically grounded but irrelevant to contemporary geopolitics the US seeks to shape. Trump’s opposing NATO membership for Ukraine and his reaching out to Russia directly have boxed Europe in a quandary by making out the conflict to be a European security matter. NATO chief Mark Rutte and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stressed increased European defence spending and “rearming” Ukraine. However, statements from various European capitals underscore that “strong backing from the US is necessary” for any lasting solution.
The EU-US rift and resultant geopolitics and geoeconomics shifts present opportunities for India as a non-conflicting partner. Prime Minister Narendra Modi acknowledged the changes, underlining the growing importance of the India-EU partnership. He stated that in times of “rapidly evolving” geoeconomic and political circumstances and “breaking down” of old equations, this partnership “becomes even more important”. With 6,000 EU companies in India and bilateral trade reaching $135 billion in 2022-23, the partnership has nearly doubled in a decade. What remains to be seen is how the opportunity to deepen ties with the EU helps achieve these ambitious roadmaps.