CHENNAI: Nearly three months after the surprise victory of the reformist Move Forward Party (MFP) in the Thailand general elections, the country is yet to elect a prime minister. Pita Limjaroenrat, the Harvard-educated young leader of MFP, who campaigned on a promise to make Thailand a modern democracy and limit the humongous influence of the monarchy and the military over the country’s politics, has been barred from contesting for the PM’s post.
Normally in a parliamentary democracy, the leader of the largest party becomes the PM after proving the support of a majority of lawmakers in the popularly-elected chamber. Pita had assembled a coalition that held 312 seats in the 500-member lower house of Parliament – the House of Representatives.
But in Thailand, that isn’t enough. The PM needs majority support of both houses of Parliament put together, including the Senate that is nominated.
That’s how the monarchy with a thin skin and the military pull the strings.
Winds of change
Two institutions are sacred in Thailand – the monarchy and the military. Both wield enormous influence over the country that has witnessed many coups. Even now, criticism of the king is outlawed and violators face lengthy jail terms. But the winds of change are blowing and today’s youngsters want to see their country become a full-fledged democracy where their elected representatives, led by the prime minister, make laws without interference from the king or the army chief.
Against this backdrop, the May 14 general election was expected to unseat the government led by former army chief Prayut Chan-o-Cha. Opinion polls showed Paetongtarn Shinawatra of the Pheu Thai party as the favourite to take power. Pita was the next most popular leader. But his party did better and emerged as the biggest in Parliament.
Prayut seized power in a bloodless coup in 2014 amid a political crisis over the transfer of a senior civil servant by then-PM Yingluck Shinawatra. Prayut was subsequently elected PM in 2019 in a vote held under the military-drafted constitution signed by King Maha Vajiralongkorn in 2017. His party had won only 116 seats in the House, less than the Pheu Thai party’s 136. Yet, with the backing of the 250-strong military-appointed Senate, he managed to seize power. The subsequent years saw periodic pro-democracy protests, mostly led by youth, against the backdrop of increasing repression and an economic slowdown, exacerbated by the Covid lockdown.
Lese majeste law
In the run-up to the May general elections, Pheu Thai promised to raise the minimum wage, cut fuel and public transportation costs, make a one-time payment of $300 to every adult to spend locally, and provide free internet and a tablet computer to all students. The MFP made similar promises but went further by pledging to reform the country’s political system, which resonated with the youth but drew the anger of the conservatives. MFP’s reformist proposals included drafting a new constitution, ending conscription, limiting the military’s influence over politics and amending Section 112 of the Thai penal code that bans criticism of the monarchy. The last of these was the highlight of the party’s poll plank and led to calls from royalists to disband it.
Thailand’s lese majeste law is one of the most stringent in the world with lengthy prison terms for even the slightest of criticisms against the monarchy. Hundreds of people, including minors, have been jailed without trial under the law since the 2014 coup. The MFP proposed reducing jail terms and an exemption from punishment if the criticism was made in good faith.
Thailand is a constitutional monarchy. The king does not play a direct role in policy-making. But, he wields influence over the process through a loyal Senate. If elected MPs attempt to make or amend a law that could hurt their interests, the Senators can be expected to block it. MFP’s proposals on the lese majeste law set it on a collision course with the Senators.
Majority in the House
The MFP was launched in March 2020, days after its predecessor, the Future Forward Party (FFP), was dissolved by a Constitutional Court. The FFP landed in hot water over its acceptance of a donation of $6 million from its co-founder.
As per Thai law, a party cannot accept more than 10 million baht ($2,89,000) from an individual. Eleven lawmakers, who were the party’s office-bearers, were banned from the House. The remaining 55 joined the MFP.
In the May 14 elections, the party won 151 seats in the 500-member House. The Pheu Thai won 141. Days later, Pita announced that the MFP and seven other parties, including Pheu Thai, had signed a coalition agreement. Together, they had 312 seats.
How Senate Stifled Pita
Thailand got its 20th constitution on April 6, 2017, during Pratyut’s watch as PM. It created a 250-member Senate whose members were appointed by the military government for a term of six years. Under the new constitution, any party with at least 25 seats in the House can nominate a candidate for the PM’s post. But to become the PM, the nominee needs the support of a majority of lawmakers from both chambers of Parliament.
In other words, the candidate must get the support of at least 376 of 750 lawmakers (500+250) to become the PM. Pita naively believed he would get the support of a few dozen Senators, having reached out to them earlier, but most of them listened to their master’s voice instead. They blocked his path to PM-ship citing his party’s stated intention to amend the lese majeste law. By making the Senate’s vote count in the election, the Constitution put the choice of the PM in the pocket of the monarchy and the military.
The first round of voting was held on July 13, nearly two months after the elections. Of the 705 lawmakers who voted, 324 endorsed Pita, 182 voted against him and 199 abstained. He got the support of 13 Senators alone. Mass protests erupted. Thousands of MFP supporters hit the streets demanding that Pita be allowed to become the PM.
But things went south from here.
Days later, on July 18, ahead of the second vote, a motion to block him from contesting again — on the grounds that Parliament’s rules do not allow for a repeat motion within the same session — was passed with the backing of 395 lawmakers. A day later, Pita’s troubles were compounded as a court suspended his membership from the lower House following a complaint by a political activist that the MFP leader held shares of iTV. Thai rules prohibit lawmakers from owning shares in media firms.
What's next?
The MFP approached the Constitutional Court through the state ombudsman challenging Parliament’s rejection of Pita’s renomination. The court was expected to decide on the maintainability of the petition on August 3, but it put it off claiming it needed more time to take the call. It will be on August 16 next to decide whether or not to accept the petition. If it does accept it, the court could order that the vote be put on ice till it pronounces its verdict. Besides, the MFP has filed a petition in Parliament demanding an amendment to the constitution to eliminate the unelected Senate’s ability to veto PM candidates. That said, Pita’s chances of running for PM again in the current term of Parliament appear negligible unless the monarchy-military stranglehold is decisively relaxed by the judiciary or people’s power.
As for the eight-party alliance the MFP had cobbled together, it has since broken up. The next biggest party in the coalition, the Pheu Thai, announced it will form a new coalition as all other parties and Senators it spoke to wanted the MFP out of any new arrangement. In other words, the party with the biggest numbers in Parliament has become politically untouchable.
While Pheu Thai intends to nominate real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin for PM of the new coalition, Paetongtarn Shinawatra recently created a flutter by announcing her father and former PM Thaksin Shinawatra’s return home from self-imposed exile after 15 years on August 10. With the wheels of politics turning slowly, Thailand’s wait for a new government has just got longer.
Cast of characters
King Vajrajalonkorn
He ascended to the throne on December 1, 2016. As a prince, he spent most of his life in Europe, especially Germany. When the new constitution was being drafted, he demanded changes so as to allow him to travel abroad without having to appoint a regent. He used the lese majeste law against his divorced third wife’s parents and jailed them.
Pita Limjaroenrat
A Harvard-educated businessman, he joined politics in 2018 and won a seat in the House of Representatives on the Future Forward Party’s ticket the following year. When the FFP was dissolved, he was made leader of the successor Move Forward Party. Before joining politics, he was the CEO of Agrifood, a family-run business.
Prayut Chan-o-cha
Seized power after leading a coup against Yingluck Shinawatra govt in 2014. A staunch supporter of the royalty, he was appointed a commander of the Royal Guards. Rose through the ranks to become the top commander of the Thai Army in 2010. After the 2019 polls, the Palang Pracharath Party nominated him as a candidate for PM.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra
The scion of the Shinawatra family was the clear favourite to be Thailand’s next PM. She is the daughter of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra. Ahead of the polls, most opinion polls favoured her Pheu Thai party. She is far more popular than Srettha Thavisin, her rival for the PM’s post. Yet, Thavisin is ahead in the race for the PM.
Thaksin Shinawatra
The former PM was ousted from power by the 2006 coup. He fled in 2008 to avoid jail. He is the founder of the Pheu Thai party and remains a popular figure. His daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra claimed he will return to Thailand this month, ending 15 years of self-imposed exile. It could prolong the Thai political deadlock.
Srettha Thavisin
He is expected to be Phue Thai’s PM candidate. A property tycoon, he is known for his excellent management skills. Thavisin was appointed as chief adviser to Paetongtarn Shinawatra in March. Thavisin has vowed to improve Thailand’s international standing if elected PM.