CHENNAI: The landmark Women’s Reservation Bill passed in Parliament recently tied its implementation to the delimitation of the Lok Sabha and all state assembly constituencies based on the first Census data after the law is enacted. The bill became law on Friday after it received President Droupadi Murmu's assent. Since the rollout of the law included the D-word, it reignited fears of the North getting a bigger share of parliamentary constituencies because of their higher population density and the South losing its clout substantially. Delimitation is a process to fix boundaries of territorial constituencies in a country or a province that has a legislative body in such a way that each of them roughly represents an equal number of voters.
Since the Constitution capped the number of seats in the Lok Sabha at the present level, political parties are worried about the South, particularly Tamil Nadu and Kerala, losing a big chunk of constituencies after they are redrawn. The heartburn is due to the fact that states that successfully implemented population control stand to lose political power at the expense of the laggards.
Vadakku vazhgirathu, therku theigirathu (The North shines while the South wanes), is a popular quote of DMK's first chief minister C N Annadurai, a literary colossus known for his alliterations and pithy punch lines. Fresh delimitation would further accentuate the party's grouse. To address these concerns partially, the BJP-led government possibly intends to increase the total number of seats so that no state would lose any, which was why it expedited the construction of the new Parliament House.
The new building can accommodate 888 MPs - over 350 more than the old Lok Sabha did. But that does not fully solve the problem because the delimitation math would create much more seats for the North, West and Central India as compared to the South, East, and Northeast when a uniform population yardstick is applied. In other words, the ratio of the South's political say in the Lok Sabha would decline if the Centre decides to stay with the cap on the overall seat count or expand the constituency basket while redrawing them (see graphic).
Southern discomfort
Setting the benchmark on the composition of the Lok Sabha, Article 81 says that the ratio between the number of seats in each state and its population must be the same across all states, as far as practicable. Also, "each state shall be divided into territorial constituencies in such a manner that the ratio between the population of each constituency and the number of seats allotted to it is, so far as practicable, the same throughout the state." But after the provisions of the Women's Reservation Bill became public, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and president of the DMK M K Stalin sought an assurance from Prime Minister Narendra Modi that the South, particularly Tamil Nadu, would not experience a reduction in its representation in the Lok Sabha.
He described the delimitation as a sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of Tamil Nadu and the South as it would reduce their clout in Parliament. Stalin saw a political motive behind the possible reduction in representation of the South in the House of the People and said it should be nipped in the bud. “It is unjust that southern states, which have diligently followed the Union government's policies to control population growth, face punitive measures during the constituency delimitation,” he said.
Why put off for 5 decades
Delimitation is a constitutional mandate after every decadal Census. The process to redraw constituencies happened thrice and delimitation commissions were set up four times since Independence — in 1952, 1963, 1973, and 2002. In 1976, during the Emergency, the then prime minister Indira Gandhi froze the number of Lok Sabha constituencies for 25 years, perhaps influenced by her son Sanjay, citing the progress of family planning programmes in different parts of the country. But Sanjay's draconian sterilisation drive bombed and the misdeeds of Emergency took away Indira's chair a year later.
A fresh delimitation window opened in 2001 but the then prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee took the easy way of postponing it by 25 more years citing family planning as Indira did. The 84th Constitutional amendment under his watch as PM said the next delimitation should be done on the basis of the Census conducted after 2026. With that 50-year freeze ending in 2026, the present government is in no mood to put delimitation off any further.
In any case, the BJP has little political capital in the South, so it has nothing to lose by restarting the delimitation of constituencies before one-third of Lok Sabha seats are reserved for women. The 2021 Census could not be done due to COVID-19 and was not taken up immediately after the pandemic. Union Home Minister Amit Shah in his recent intervention in Parliament's special session on the Women's Reservation Bill, assured that the Census exercise will begin soon after the 2024 elections. If its outcome is published in 2026 just after the delimitation calendar opens, it would set the legal process of redrawing constituencies in motion.
Seat skew
A 2019 study suggests that Tamil Nadu, undivided Andhra Pradesh (including Telangana) and Kerala might lose eight LS seats each while Uttar Pradesh could gain 11 more LS seats if the total count remains static. However, the actual gains/losses for each state will be known only after the next Census is over. The South is not just concerned over lesser say in Parliament and policy making. It fears that it would be politically neglected as winning a sizable number of seats in the North could become sufficient for any national party to capture power.
South's suggestions
Political analysts in the South have suggested that the next delimitation exercise while redrawing boundaries of constituencies, keep the total seats in each state frozen so as to avoid uneven representation in Parliament. Besides, in Tamil Nadu, certain political parties are of the view that ahead of the next delimitation, the Centre ought to form a committee of experts to revisit the entire process of constituency rejig based on population and develop a new formula so that states that controlled fertility levels are not disincentivised. Political parties warn that a bigger say for the North over the South as a consequence of delimitation could trigger unforeseen negative tendencies, including widespread unrest.
Delimitation so far
Delimitation of J&K's Assembly seats was completed in May last year based on the 2011 Census. It added seven more Assembly seats to take the total to 90. Six of the seven new seats went to Jammu. Assam, too, recently wrapped up its delimitation exercise. It retained the number of Assembly seats at 126 and Lok Sabha at 14.