SRINAGAR: The landslide victory registered by the National Conference-Congress alliance in the recent Kargil Hill Development Council polls was on expected lines. But it drew national attention as it was the first expression of popular will there ever since the reading down of Article 370 in J&K. On August 5, 2019, J&K not only lost its special status but was also downgraded to the level of a Union Territory. Two Union Territories were simultaneously created - J&K with a legislature and Ladakh without a legislature.
Coming as the Ladakh verdict did barely a few months ahead of the general elections, analysts have been trying to discern from it the direction the poll winds could possibly take in Ladakh and J&K when the big battle of the ballot begins. The NC and the Congress went to polls with a seat-sharing arrangement. Both NC and Congress are part of the Opposition's INDIA bloc. They have been traditional big hitters in the council polls. Of the 26 Kargil Hill Council seats, the NC won 12 and the Congress 10 while the BJP and Independents won two each. In all, the Kargil Hill Council has 30 members, 26 of whom make it by direct franchise while the other four are nominated.
LAB-KDA factor
The Ladakh Union Territory comprises two districts - the Muslim-dominated Kargil and the Buddhist-dominated Leh - with an overall population of over 3 lakh. While people and political parties in Kargil opposed the messing around with 370 and the bifurcation of state, those in Leh cheered and celebrated the demise of the special status. But this Leh euphoria did not last long. Political parties, traders, religious and civil society groups of the district came together to form the Leh Apex Body (LAB) with former BJP MP Thupstan Chhewang as its head to fight for constitutional safeguards for the new Union Territory.
The LAB later joined hands with the Kargil Democratic Alliance (KDA), an amalgam of various political parties, traders and civil society groups of Kargil district. Both LAB and KDA are now jointly demanding the grant of Sixth Schedule status, statehood with legislature, two Lok Sabha seats and reservation of jobs for locals in Ladakh – similar to what existed before Article 370's abrogation. BJP is the only political party that is not part of LAB and KDA.
Even the innovator, environmentalist and engineer Sonam Wangchuk of the Three Idiots fame aligned himself with the LAB and KDA. He went on to hold a series of climate fasts to press the Central government on the Sixth Schedule status. The Sixth Schedule under Article 244 of the Constitution allows forming autonomous administrative councils in select tribal areas. Such councils have legislative, judicial and administrative autonomy within a state. The Sixth Schedule is specifically meant for administration of tribal areas in Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram.
Omar calls it referendum
Given this backdrop, the victory of the NC and the Congress in Kargil Hill Council polls cannot be dismissed as routine. Former J&K chief minister and National Conference vice president Omar Abdullah was understandably euphoric when he described the outcome as a referendum against the Centre’s decision to nullify Article 370. "Residents of Ladakh have outrightly rejected the decision of Central government to bifurcate the erstwhile state of J&K into two Union Territories and abrogate Articles 370 and 35A," he said.
Kargil-based political analyst Sajjad Kargili, who unsuccessfully contested the 2019 parliamentary elections from Ladakh, said the message is loud and clear that people are angry with BJP and the Central government. “They are angry over Article 370 abrogation, bifurcation of J&K state and the present set up in Ladakh UT,” he said. How does he explain the BJP doubling its tally from one in the last polls to two now? The BJP, he said, should have swept the polls because the entire government machinery is with them, yet it managed only two. The poll results, he added, will definitely have an impact on parliamentary polls in Ladakh.
If the NC-Congress alliance continues and they put up a joint candidate from the Ladakh Lok Sabha seat, they can defeat the BJP, he said. “They will get backing from both the LAB and KDA, which will increase their chances of winning. I think the NC and Congress and other opposition parties are formulating strategies to field a joint candidate.” If, however, they put up separate candidates, it would lead to split in votes and help the BJP, he warned.
At cross-purposes
Even in the recent Ladakh elections, both the NC and the Congress were in the fray in 50% of the seats - as many as 13 of the 26 seats that went to polls - despite their seat-sharing deal. For example, a sliver of data shows that in the Stakchay Khangral seat, the sum of the votes polled by the NC (479) and the Congress (830) separately was much more than that of the victorious BJP candidate (1,007). Had the allies fought it together, they could have easily pocketed that seat.
Such transgressions can still be manageable at micro level where the opponent might not have enough roots and stakes aren't that high. However, this is not possible in Assembly or Lok Sabha polls where the opposite side is formidable. If only the big opposition parties imbibe the spirit of give and take in its true sense in an alliance, give up their bloated egos and field joint candidates, they could become unstoppable. Another political activist said that the Ladakh administration’s attempt to deny the 'Plough' symbol to the NC could have generated a sympathy wave for the party and gone against the BJP. (In two seats, Padum and Karsha, the BJP lost by just 54 and 79 votes, respectively.) It was only after the intervention of the Supreme Court that the Plough symbol was restored to the NC.
Opposition consolidation
Jammu-based political commentator Rekha Choudhary, too, was of the opinion that the NC-Congress alliance made the difference in the Kargil polls. “The NC and the Congress, instead of fighting against each other, fought together against the BJP. If this alliance remains, it would have an impact on the Lok Sabha polls as well because there would be no division of votes.
A straight election between the BJP and the rest would make it a tough contest,” she said. As for Ladakh, “the LAB and KDA coming together is a different kind of politics, as earlier it used to be Kargil versus Leh and Buddhists versus Muslims in parliamentary polls. Since 2019, Ladakh has been having an interesting change in scenario,” she added.
Ladakh BJP president Phunchok Stanzin, however, had a different take. He took heart in the fact that the BJP’s votes have increased from 2,500 in the last elections to over 10,000 this time. Asked if it would have any impact on the LS polls, Stanzin said that the situation would be different as he expected the NC and the Congress to field their own respective candidates. But if they manage to put up a joint candidate and the LAB and KDA support them, the situation could change. He, however, added, “I think that kind of situation will not emerge because LAB and KDA won’t remain united. Our vote bank won’t be affected.” As for the demands of the LAB and KDA, he said two more districts would be created in Ladakh and some constitutional safeguards may be granted to Ladakh in the run up to the polls. “If this happens, the unity of LAB and KDA would be nullified,” he claimed.
The bottomline then is to find ways to keep the opposition unity intact. Big opposition parties need to find space to accommodate the competing ambitions of each other adequately without creating mutual friction and frittering the advantage away. But that's easier said than done.