CHENNAI: Year 2024 will see elections to the world’s largest and second-largest democracies. While India is yet to firm up the dates for the Lok Sabha polls, the US has already started electioneering for the high-stakes presidential poll that has a fixed date.
The upcoming US presidential election is going to be significant for various reasons. One, rarely has the US had an election where the sitting president is pitted against a former president. Despite his advanced age–he is 80– and poor ratings, President Joe Biden wants a second term. He is expected to face former president Donald Trump, 77, who is a strong contender though hemmed by serious legal challenges that may harm his presidential bid. As of now, there are 14 serious candidates eyeing the hot seat – 10 Republicans, 3 Democrats, and one third-party candidate. A few more had announced their intent to run but pulled out of the race.
As of Saturday, a total of 1,101 candidates have registered with the Federal Election Commission website to run for president with some 300 identifying themselves as belonging to Republican Party and over 160 as Democratic Party. In 2020, as many as 1,212 people had registered as candidates. But only a few from both parties are serious contenders.
Many in India will be closely watching the 2024 US election because there are a handful of Indian Americans, too, in the fray but only Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy (both Republicans) are in the news. The others are relatively lesser known — Hirsh Vardhan Singh (Republican), Shabadjot Singh Bharara (Democrat), and Ajay Thaliyath (Democrat). A few more candidates with Indian-sounding names are in the list.
The process
The US elects its president every four years but the entire election process takes about two years. The election day is fixed – the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. The next presidential election will be held on November 5, 2024.
Eligibility to contest
For a person to become the US President, he/she should be a natural-born citizen of the US, be at least 35 years old and have been a resident of the US for 14 years. Hollywood actor and former Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger could not run for president because he was born outside the US. Though Obama was born in the US, he faced allegations about his place right through his tenure. Once a candidate declares his/her the intention to run for presidency, he or she has to raise or spend more than $5,000 for their campaign and register with the federal election commission.
Delegates matter
The next step is to get votes in state primaries and caucuses run by local governments through a secret ballot. Political parties run caucuses which are private meetings. Candidates have to win more delegates at the end of primaries and caucuses. These delegates represent their state at national party conventions. The candidate who wins the most delegates represents the state at the national party convention, which picks the national presidential candidate. The sitting president is more likely than not to be renominated by the party, though winnability depends on various other factors. There are instances where the incumbent has lost. While only three Democrats are in the fray so far, the scenario could change if Biden bows out following pressure from the party.
The initial stages of election can be a little chaotic as the candidates fight it out at the primary and caucuses, where a lot of mudslinging happens. Whoever gets the most number of delegates is sent as the party’s candidate to the national convention. However, if no candidate has a majority of delegates before the party convention, the delegates get to do another round of voting to choose their presidential nominee. At the end of the national convention, the winning candidate generally announces his/her running mate (vice president nominee).
TV debates
Oratory skills are a key qualification and TV debates can make or break a candidate. Once the parties announce their presidential and vice presidential candidates, the action shifts to election campaigns and television debates. The practice of television debates started in 1960, which was broadcast through radio, too. The first debate was between John Kennedy (Democrat) and Richard Nixon (Republican). Whoever heard the debate on radio felt Nixon was articulating his position well. But whoever saw the debate on television found Nixon uncomfortable to the medium.
His refusal to use makeup resulted in a ‘five o-clock shadow’ (beard visible late in the day after a clean shave in the morning), which is believed to be a factor in his defeat. Kennedy, whose rating was down until then, started to canter. There were three more debates and Nixon did win them, but it was not enough for him to win the presidency.
After 1960, the next presidential debate happened only in 1976. Since then presidential debates are a staple before any US elections. Candidates decide the format and at least three debates happen. In the 1990s, Republican President George Bush (Sr) was debating with Democratic contender Governor Bill Clinton. At one point in the debate, Bush checked the time on his wrist watch before a live audience. Soon after, his rating started falling and he subsequently lost.
Election day
The election is held in November. Only registered citizens can vote. Irrespective of their affiliation to a party, they are free to vote for any candidate. Voters who have not voted in primaries can still vote during the presidential general elections. America has been mostly a two-party—Democrats and Republican—country. A third candidate from the Green Party or People’s Party, too, stands and loses. The third candidate is not part of television debates.
Electoral college
The electoral college determines the outcome of the elections. A candidate who wins the popular vote cannot become the next president if he/she does not get a simple majority in the electoral college. Each state gets as many electors as it has members of Congress. There are currently 538 electors in all. A candidate needs the vote of at least 270 electors to win the presidential election. In the past, candidates have won the popular vote but not had enough electoral votes and had to concede, as it happened in 2016 and 2000.
INAUGURATION OF PRESIDENT
Once clarity emerges on who will be the next president, he has to wait for two months before he takes office. The inauguration day is usually January 20. It may be pushed by a day if it happens to be a Sunday.