How America elects its President

The afterglow of the botched assassination attempt on Donald Trump appears to be waning, making him grumpy, as his rival Democratic Party presidential candidate Kamala Harris picks up steam and forges ahead with undecided voters leaning towards her as the better option

Express Illustration | Sourav Roy

KOCHI: The US presidential election, the most watched poll in the world, is set to go right down to the wire. If former president Donald Trump was seen as the clear front-runner a few weeks ago — his ratings soared after the failed assassination attempt on him -- the scenario flipped after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race to make way for Vice President Kamala Harris. According to an analysis by the Economist, Biden had just 21% chance of getting re-elected on July 21, the day he bowed out.

After initial hiccups, Harris managed to close the gap with Trump and, according to the latest surveys, she has a slight edge over the Republican presidential nominee nationally while the race remains neck-and-neck in key battleground states, which is also seen swinging in favour of the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.

WHAT SURVEYS SAY

As of August 16, most surveys give Harris an edge over Trump. According to FiveThirtyEight’s popularity polling average, Harris leads Trump 46.3% to 43.5%. RealClearPolitics’ tracker shows Harris leads at 45.6% against Trump’s 44.5%. Plus, Harris has a narrow lead in six out of the seven swing states. If elections were held now, Harris would get 46% support from registered voters whereas 45% would pick Trump, says a Pew Research Center survey.

This is a major shift considering that just a month ago, Trump was leading his then rival Biden 44% to 40%. Harris’ entry also hurt the prospects of independent presidential candidate Robert F Kennedy, whose support base halved from 15% last month to just 7% by mid-August, according to the Pew survey. Another survey done by Outward Intelligence claims Harris is way above Trump at 49% to 43%.

Fox News seems to be the only one showing Trump in the lead. According to the latest Fox News national survey, Harris trails Trump by 1 point at 49% to 50%.

The above figures are the national average. As for the seven battleground states, which can ‘swing’ to favour either candidate, a survey from the Cook Political Report Swing State Project claims Harris has an edge across all seven swing states.

BATTLE FOR BATTLEGROUND STATES

By all indications, the election will come down to a handful of battleground states. Precisely because these states can be won by either candidate, political parties spend a lot of time and money there.

According to the average of all surveys by FiveThirtyEight, Harris has a 0.9% lead in Arizona, 0.2% lead in Georgia, 2.9% lead in Michigan, 2.3% in Pennsylvania, and 3.3% Wisconsin. Trump has a 0.5% lead in North Carolina while it is a tie in Nevada.

Most surveys indicate that 5% of the respondents haven’t yet made up their mind on whom to vote. Both camps are vying to woo this segment.

MAJOR ISSUES, POLICIES

Economy, inflation, jobs, and immigration crisis are the major issues for most voters. Trump is perceived to have an advantage over Harris on the economy. However, reports say Harris is seeking to blunt this edge by touting her own economic plans, including proposals to lower costs for families. On the other key issues, the two candidates offer starkly different visions. On immigration, for example, Harris is widely expected to offer citizenship for undocumented immigrants while Trump’s plan is to complete the border wall and stop the flow of immigrants coming through Mexico.

Harris is likely to take forward most of Biden’s policies. However, some analysts believe her decision to pick Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as vice presidential nominee is a sign that the US’ unconditional support for Israel in its war against Hamas in Gaza may be reviewed. Harris is expected to continue or bolster the war funding for Ukraine, though.

Trump, on the other hand, is both ambiguous and ambivalent about his plans for Israel and Ukraine. He claims he will end the wars within 24 hours of assuming office but there is no clarity on how he will go about it. In the past, he has questioned the need for bankrolling Ukraine in its war with Russia. Trump in his recent unmoderated discussion on X with the platform’s owner Elon Musk had said he would slash all ‘wasteful’ government funding.

ELECTION PROCESS

Trump has been officially chosen as the Republican Party’s presidential nominee. Harris is yet to be formally declared the Democratic Party’s presidential pick; the formal announcement will be made in the Democratic National Convention to be held in Chicago from August 19 to 22. After that formality, her name will be entered on the general ballot. The US Presidential election is on November 5.

Unlike other US elections, the President is not elected directly by citizens by popular vote. Instead, he or she is chosen through the Electoral College process.

In all, there are 538 electors in the Electoral College and a candidate needs to have the vote of at least 270 electors to win the presidential election. If there is a 269-269 tie, then the newly-elected House of Representatives would determine the winner.

Each of the 50 states is allocated presidential electors equal to the number of its representatives and senators. Barring Maine and Nebraska, all states use a ‘winner-take-all system, in which all electoral votes are given to the popular vote winner. It means, if a majority of voters in a state vote for the Republican presidential candidate, then the Republican slate of electors is chosen. If a majority vote for the Democratic presidential candidate, the Democratic slate of electors is chosen. Maine and Nebraska award one electoral vote to the popular vote winner in each of their congressional districts and the remaining two electoral votes to the statewide winner.

While the projected winner is announced on the election night (November 5) itself, the actual Electoral College vote takes place on December 17 when the electors meet in their states. The actual counting of electoral votes will take place on January 6, 2025 when the Congress meets in a joint session. January 20 is the inauguration day when the president-elect becomes the President of the United States.

CHANGING DYNAMICS

Online surveys and opinion polls can only indicate the mood of the respondents and are not conclusive. Also, the charts can change dramatically in a matter of days. A better picture will emerge after the live debate between Trump and Harris on September 10 on ABC. According to Harris’ campaign team, there will be another round of debate sometime in October. Trump had offered to have three rounds with Harris, but the Harris camp is yet to accept a third round.

Electoral votes by state

State Votes

Alabama 9

Alaska 3

Arizona 11

Arkansas 6

California 54

Colorado 10

Connecticut 7

Delaware 3

District of Columbia*3

Florida 30

Georgia 16

Hawaii 4

Idaho 4

Illinois 19

Indiana 11

Iowa 6

Kansas 6

Kentucky 8

Louisiana 8

Maine 4

Maryland 10

Massachusetts 11

Michigan 15

Minnesota 10

Mississippi 6

Missouri 10

Montana 4

Nebraska 5

Nevada 6

New Hampshire 4

New Jersey 14

New Mexico 5

New York 28

North Carolina 16

North Dakota 3

Ohio 17

Oklahoma 7

Oregon 8

Pennsylvania 19

Rhode Island 4

South Carolina 9

South Dakota 3

Tennessee 11

Texas 40

Utah 6

Vermont 3

Virginia 13

Washington 12

West Virginia 4

Wisconsin 10

Wyoming 3

*Although not a state, the District of Columbia is allotted electors