Heads turned when Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu gave an 'ultimatum' to India last week to withdraw Indian military personnel from the island nation by March 15. Maldives had sought the Indian troops’ removal from the country earlier as well, but this was the first time a deadline was given. “Indian military personnel cannot stay in the Maldives. This is the policy of President Mohamed Muizzu and that of this administration,” said a statement issued by the office of President Muizzu, a known India baiter.
While the tone of the terse statement did not go down well with many in India, it was no surprise as it came days after three deputy ministers in Maldives made disparaging social media remarks against Prime Minister Narendra Modi for promoting Lakshadweep as a tourist destination.
The Maldives government ‘suspended’ the three ministers after their comments drew widespread condemnation and social media influencers, including celebrities, called upon tourists to boycott Maldives, which depends on revenue from tourism for its survival.
Muizzu was preparing to leave for China when the controversy exploded and his first statement upon return was Maldives won’t be 'bullied' by any other country. Later, his office gave the March 15 deadline for Indian military personnel to pack up.
Why are Indian soldiers in Maldives?
India has 88 personnel from the armed forces in the archipelago country, including medical professionals. They are stationed there primarily for humanitarian assistance and training. Indian troops are also manning one helicopter and two Dornier aircraft, which are used for rescue operations. According to India, the troops need to stay in the island nation to train the Maldives defence forces in helicopter operations. However, disinformation campaigns in Maldives claim that India's ultimate aim is to take over the country.
India-Maldives ties
India has historical ties with the Maldives. The small island nation depends on India for much of its needs. India is on its speed dial whenever there is an emergency. During the 2014 Male water crisis, Indian Air Force rushed 375 tonnes of drinking water, hours after a distress call from Male. Later, INS Deepak and INS Shukanya shipped 2,000 tonnes of water, easing the pressure off around 1.5 lakh restive Maldivians who were left without water after a fire destroyed the generator of its biggest water treatment plant.
Maldives' economy is dependent on tourism revenue. While its breathtaking beaches and exquisite stay options attract tourists from the world over, travellers from India form a major chunk of the total inflow.
India has traditionally been benevolent to Maldives, fulfilling its needs and cementing partnerships in defence and education sectors, among others. Despite anti-India propaganda, New Delhi has not gone back on its commitments to Male.
Genesis of anti-India sentiment
Though Muizzu's foreign policy may seem outrageous, the paradigm shift is not sudden. Anti-India sentiments, fanned by carefully crafted disinformation campaigns, have been simmering in Maldives for at least a decade. It gained traction after its proponents played up fears of India chipping away at Male’s sovereignty. The genesis of these sentiments could be traced back to 2013, when anti-India hardliner Abdulla Yameen assumed power. Yameen's administration was out and out pro-China and entered into a series of dubious infrastructure agreements with Chinese firms, which would later drag the country into Beijing's infamous 'debt trap'.
Ibrahim Solih, the next president, turned the anti-India campaign on its head by launching the 'India First' campaign. However, calls against India resumed again during the 2023 presidential election, which Muizzu won on the back of the 'India Out' campaign.
It’s politics, stupid!
Muizzu came to power in December 2023 on an anti-India, pro-China plank. Sending back Indian troops was the highlight of his election manifesto. On the second day after taking oath, he boasted about ending Indian military presence in the country. A week later, he embarked on his first foreign trip to Turkey, breaking the tradition of Maldivian presidents choosing India as the first country to visit. To boot, Muizzu's government decided not to renew India’s contract for conducting hydrographic surveys.
Whipping up nationalistic sentiments among people is a tried-and-tested method to attract votes. Muizzu adopted the same strategy to rally support for him. And India, being a big neighbour, is an easy target. The timing of the latest anti-India rhetoric is curious as the archipelago nation is headed for parliamentary polls on March 17. This could also be the logic behind the March 15 deadline for Indian troops to pull out.
According to reports, Muizzu's People's National Congress is bracing for a spirited fight from the main opposition Maldivian Democratic Party. The election will also test the mettle of Muizzu's pro-China policy.
What next
India is a dominant player in South Asia – both in terms of population and economy. It is on course to taking its leadership role forward, extending cooperation to smaller neighbours while countering China’s influence. Occasional nuisance from countries like Maldives won’t impact India’s long-term strategy for the region.
Speaking at an event recently, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said that “politics is politics” and it’s not possible to get every country to support and agree with India all the time. India will continue to build global connections whatever be the political mood, Jaishankar said, adding the people of Maldives "generally have good feelings towards India".
On Thursday, Jaishankar met his Maldivian counterpart Moosa Zameer in Ugandan capital Kampala on the sidelines of the NAM Summit. Signalling the talks were positive, Jaishankar said they had a “frank conversation on India-Maldives ties”. His Maldivian counterpart, however, said the talks included withdrawal of Indian troops as well as expediting the completion of ongoing development projects in Maldives. At the end of the day, pragmatism could win the game.
Interestingly, Muizzu's party lost the Male's Mayoral elections to a pro-India Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) on January 13 by a wide margin. The outgoing mayor was Muizzu himself. MDP still holds a majority in parliament.