KOCHI: Even before Iran officially confirmed the death of its president, Ebrahim Raisi, in a helicopter crash, celebrations had broken out in some cities, with Iranians critical of his oppressive regime distributing sweets and bursting crackers. This was not surprising, as Raisi, known for his ultra-conservative views, had been accused of enforcing repressive laws to brutally suppress political dissent as well as women’s rights.
During his previous stint in the judiciary, he had allegedly ordered the execution of thousands of political prisoners, mostly leftists, at the behest of the then Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
More recently, he was blamed for stamping out violent protests that erupted in the aftermath of the death of a 22-year-old Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, who was fatally assaulted by the country’s morality police for not wearing a headscarf. The shocking incident caught international attention and Raisi’s regime was widely panned for its regressive policies.
The unexpected death of Raisi, however, doesn’t mean the end of Iran’s theocratic rule. Inchoate hopes of progressive Iranians that the winds of change may finally sweep across the Islamic Republic remain muted as June 28 has been set as the date for snap polls to choose the next hardliner president, who will continue to implement Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s policies.
Slow rise
Raisi's ascent to the president’s position was slow and steady. A Muslim jurist, he served in several positions in Iran's judicial system, including as prosecutor for the provinces of Karaj, Hamadan and Tehran. He got his biggest break during his stint in the Tehran "death committee" in 1988, carrying out executions of political prisoners.
While it earned him the infamous moniker 'Butcher of Tehran' and accusations of crimes against humanity, his career graph shot up after the controversial stint. He became deputy chief justice in 2004, attorney general in 2014, and chief justice in 2019—a position Raisi held till he became the country’s president in 2021.
He ran for president in 2017 but lost to moderate incumbent president Hassan Rouhani. Raisi contested again in 2021 and won amid allegations of foul play and rigging. However, he was the favourite of the Supreme Leader and surmounted the opposition easily. Given the clout he enjoyed, unlike previous presidents, many experts believed he was being considered to succeed Khamenei as Supreme Leader.
Supreme Leader’s shadow
Technically, the president’s position is second only to the Supreme Leader but the hierarchy of Iran’s power structure shows a different picture. The Supreme Leader keeps with himself all strategic and sensitive portfolios, leaving the president with rudimentary domestic affairs.
Also, a superbody called the Guardian Council, a 12-member panel comprising six clerics picked by the Supreme Leader and six Muslim jurists nominated by the Chief Justice, who in turn is directly appointed by the Supreme Leader, sits on top of the president. The Council can veto any bill passed by the parliament if they are not to the liking the Supreme Leader. For example, bills on reforms and women’s rights passed by elected members are routinely shot down by the Council.
Ministers for important portfolios such as defence, intelligence, science, interior, and foreign affairs are directly picked by the Supreme Leader, who can also dismiss any minister or vice-president regardless of the opinion of the parliament.
As foreign policy is handled by the Supreme Leader’s office, the foreign minister’s role is limited to protocols and ceremonial events. Ambassadors to Arab countries are appointed by the Quds Corps, which reports directly to the Supreme Leader. On the other hand, all the appointments of the president are subject to approval by the Supreme Leader.
Khamenei, the current Supreme Leader, has been at the helm for more than three decades and has made final decisions on the economy, foreign policy, education, and almost everything else that matters for the country. He has not hesitated to use his power to fire, and reinstate, presidential appointees.
In short, Iran’s president doesn’t have full control over the government, as it is the Supreme Leader who functions as the head of state. The Supreme Leader’s decrees are final and binding. In this context, Raisi’s death won’t really create a power vacuum in Iran.
Sham election
Presidential elections in Iran were not due until next year, but the tragic death of Raisi kicked in the constitutional provision that stipulates that the country can’t go without an elected president for more than 50 days.
In the absence of the president—due to death, illness or dismissal—the Supreme Leader gave vice president Mohammad Mokhber temporary charge to lead the nation and start the process of holding a snap election to pick the next president.
Under Iran’s law, presidential aspirants must have certain qualifications and meet the procedural requirements. Only Iranian nationals with demonstrable credentials, including administrative experience, piety and conviction in the principles of the Islamic Republic, can run for president. The term of the president is four years, and one is not allowed to contest for more than two consecutive elections.
Also, the presidential election is not for everyone. Only those candidates whose names have been cleared by the Guardian Council make it to the ballot. Women are not explicitly banned from contesting, but they have never been allowed to enter the fray by the all-male Council. According to the Iranian constitution, the contest for the post of president is open to rijal-e siasi, an Arabic-Farsi term whose meaning can be ‘religious and political elite’ or ‘religious and political men’ depending on who is interpreting. It is another matter that a woman president may not be able to usher in radical changes at will because it is the Supreme Leader who calls the shots.
A dozen fixers
The 12-member Guardian Council is supposed to scrutinise each presidential candidate’s merit and suitability to be the Supreme Leader’s executive. Their understanding and appreciation of the Islamic values, as interpreted by the Council, also come into play. In the 2021 election, which Raisi won, the Council had ruthlessly disqualified over 600 candidates, leaving only seven on the ballot. Curiously, three of the seven men standing also pulled out days before the election, making it pretty much a pre-determined outcome in favour of Raisi.
Among those disqualified in 2021 were prominent candidates such as former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, incumbent first vice-president Eshaq Jahangirim, and former parliament speaker Ali Larijani. The rejections had triggered a controversy and many, including Ahmadinejad, called for boycott of the presidential election. The voter turnout was an abysmal 48%—the lowest in four decades.
Critics of the Islamic Republic claim the presidential elections are a sham as the Guardian Council eliminates competition even before the polls, so that their man gets elected no matter what.
Whodunit
Most Iranians reacted with shock and disbelief after news broke of their president’s helicopter crash. Rumour mills churned out conspiracy theories that the country’s enemies—Israel and the US—could be behind it.
Such theories gained some traction given Iran’s undeniable role in the ongoing Israel-Hamas war and its retaliatory attack on Israel in response to the killing of its military commanders stationed at its embassy in Syria.
However, no proof has emerged so far linking Israel or the US to the accident. Israel’s stated policy is not to confirm or deny its role in such cases. This time, though, Israeli media quoted official sources as saying that Tel Aviv has nothing to do with the crash.
The US, on its part, rushed to express condolences, though Secretary of State Antony Blinken later clarified that the US is “definitely not grieving over his death” and that the people of Iran “are probably better off… bearing in mind the horrific acts in which he was involved as a judge and president.”
Some Iran watchers flagged the possibility of an internal angle. Raisi was one of the two potential candidates for the Supreme Leader’s position. The other candidate is incumbent Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, who is said to nurse tall ambitions.
Mojtaba, 55, is said to have participated in the Iran-Iraq war during 1987–88 and wields considerable influence over his father in policy decisions. After Raisi’s unexpected death, Mojtaba remains the only known contender for the top post.
Initial probe findings
Meanwhile, Iran has not blamed any external forces for the accident so far. Late on Thursday night, Iran’s investigators issued a statement saying the president’s helicopter appears to have caught fire soon after the crash, and that there was no sign of any attack. It said the copter followed the pre-determined flight path to the dot and an analysis of the communication between the crew and the control tower just before the crashed threw up nothing suspicious. The last communication was recorded 90 seconds before the crash. The investigators said they will disclose more details after the probe is complete.
Raisi and his entourage were en route to East Azerbaijan province when their helicopter crashed in a mountainous area last Sunday. Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and the Supreme Leader’s aide, Mohammad Ali Ale-Hashem, were also on board the doomed helicopter.
Raisi was laid to rest on Thursday in his hometown, Mashhad.