NEW DELHI: At least four elements appeared intertwined after news recently broke that the much-delayed 2021 Census exercise would begin in early 2025. While there was no official word, the newsbreak came from reliable quarters and there was no reason to doubt its authenticity. The first of the four elements or prongs is the Census itself. The next is delimitation of Lok Sabha seats, which means fixing boundaries of territorial constituencies so as to roughly have the same proportional representation of population from every seat in the House of People in Parliament.
Tied to delimitation is the third prong - the enforcement of the law on 33% reservation of seats to women in Parliament. The women's reservation bill made it mandatory for delimitation to precede the quota's rollout. And finally, the One Nation, One Poll (ONOP) plan the Modi government is committed to despite the need for multiple amendments to the Constitution. Taken together, they give a sense that the government already has a full calendar of mega events lined up till 2029 irrespective of some fireworks from allies and lots from the Opposition INDIA bloc.
Population enumeration
The Census exercise is conducted in two phases. It begins with house listing and housing Census for which a set of 31 questions have been prepared so far by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner. The house listing and updating the National Population Register (NPR) were scheduled to be carried out across the country from April 1 to September 30, 2020 but had to be put off due to the Covid outbreak.
The NPR is a biometric database of residents of India that records data like name, age, address, and details of Aadhaar card, mobile phone, passport, etc. It ran into a raft of protests because of apprehension it would be linked to the National Register of Citizens (NRC) whose entries would involve proof of citizenship either by birth or naturalisation. The pandemic doused that fire. Whether the NPR would be updated along with the house listing when the exercise begins in 2025 is not clear yet. The second phase is the business end of the decennial Census as it involves population enumeration.
A week before the Census news broke, the government extended the Central deputation of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India, Mritunjay Kumar Narayan, till August 2026. A 1995 batch IAS officer of the Uttar Pradesh cadre, he has been on the post under the Ministry of Home Affairs since 2020.
Double-edged sword
Delimitation is a constitutional requirement after every Census. It was carried out after the 1951, 1961, and 1971 Census, fixing the number of Lok Sabha seats at 494, 522, and 543, respectively to represent the population at that time — 36 crore, 44 crore and 55 crore, respectively.
It was frozen in 1976 by the then prime minister Indira Gandhi for 25 years with the stated objective of encouraging population control as the skew between performing and non-performing states was already visible and the South was beginning to grumble about rewarding the laggards. The freeze came through the 42nd Amendment Act of 1976 till the year 2000. At that time the number of Lok Sabha seats was based on the latest available population (1971 Census).
In 2002, prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee did an encore through another Constitutional amendment Act and extended the freeze for 25 more years, till 2026. That amendment is still in force and the current number of Parliamentary seats continues to be based on the 1971 Census data. This is despite the fact that a limited delimitation exercise was carried out in 2002 based on the 2001 Census. The 2002 delimitation readjusted boundaries of existing Lok Sabha and assembly seats and reworked the number of constituencies reserved for SCs and STs while keeping the total number of Lok Sabha seats static at 543, based on the 1971 Census.
India’s population has almost doubled since 1971, and even a conservative estimate suggests the number of Lok Sabha seats should be at least 750. The apparent purpose behind the construction of the new Parliament at such rapid pace was to create room for accommodation of more members in a post-delimitation scenario.
Legal questions
Article 82 of the Constitution specifies that delimitation can kick in only after the data of the first census taken after 2026 is published. It led to chatter over whether the cartographic exercise would stand legal scrutiny since the next census exercise will begin a year early, in 2025. But a look at the 2011 Census calendar addresses the confusion. Its house listing began a year earlier — from April to September, 2010. The field work of the second phase of population enumeration was carried out in February-March, 2011. If the NDA government were to follow that template, it would label it as the 2026 Census, whose exercise would begin in 2025.
But if it is called the 2025 Census, it would stumble on Article 82's bar on delimitation unless it is amended, said a former officer associated with the Office of Registrar General of India (ORGI), which is responsible for conducting the census.
Another senior officer in the Ministry of Law and Justice said that the provisions in the Constitution, barring the basic structure and fundamental rights, are not cast in stone. Each one of them can be revisited. “While the 42nd amendment of the Constitution pushed delimitation to post-2000, the 84th amendment in 2002 replaced 2000 with 2026. Now, if the government thinks fit, it is fully equipped to advance the end date to 2024 or any other date to remove the legal and Constitutional hurdle for delimitation,” he said, adding that even the requirement of endorsement through simple resolution by one-half of the state assemblies can be taken easily, as more than 50% of the states in the country are currently ruled by the NDA.
North-South divide
However, delimitation is bound to open up old wounds and drive a wedge between the North and the South. NDA ally and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu triggered a storm by calling on women in his state to bear at least two children to stabilise its population. Andhra's birth rate is under the replacement level of 2.1 live births per woman.
South India is witnessing an aging problem, Naidu said, adding each woman should give birth to more than two children in their lifetime. His Tamil Nadu counterpart M K Stalin linked it to the delimitation exercise, saying people could end up thinking about raising "16 children" for demographic rebalance, alluding to a Tamil saying. The South is wary because its share of Lok Sabha seats would drop drastically and so would their clout in national decision making if delimitation in its present form gets the green light.
The corollary is the North getting 'rewarded' with lots more seats despite failing to follow family planning. For instance, Uttar Pradesh, which already has the highest number of seats at 80, is projected to gain the most with nearly 130 MPs after delimitation.
Looked at it differently, Tamil Nadu and Kerala together could lose 16 seats, if Lok Sabha seats are redistributed after delimitation amid a freeze it their total mumber, according to a research paper for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The report said the North could gain more than 32 seats while South may end up losing 24, if the national constituency count stays at 524.
TDP MP and parliamentary party leader Lavu Sri Krishna Devarayalu demanded the reworking of the delimitation policy besides more consultations with stakeholders to address Andhra’s concerns. “Andhra Pradesh shouldn’t lose out on seats and political representation. We have done well in population policy and we shouldn’t be punished for that,” he told this newspaper.
Sources in the government indicated that before the delimitation ball is set in motion, additional factors beyond population could be introduced to address the skew against the South.
For example, provisions for inclusion of those who are underrepresented owing to social factors. Another suggestion is on increasing the number of seats in certain geographies so that no state ends up losing constituencies, but that would enhance the numerical gulf between the North and the South.
Written in stone
The Delimitation Commission in India — the body tasked with redrawing of constituencies—has representatives of all political parties. It will consider their concerns and look for solutions, sources said.
But once the Delimitation Commission makes a decision, its orders have the force of law and cannot be questioned before any court. "The orders come into force on a date to be specified by the President. Copies of its orders are laid before the House of the People and the State Legislative Assembly concerned, but no modifications are permissible therein by them," as per the Election Commission of India.
Misplaced debate
However, some experts say the debate over regional imbalance is completely misplaced. “Regionalism is bad for India. Highly populated states have their own economic disadvantages. Like mineral rich states lost substantially due to freight equaliser. And then India is not an ideal federation like the US, where equal representation is given to each of the states in the Senate, irrespective of their size and population,” says political analyst and former Patna University professor, N K Chaudhary.
“We have another model of Nepal, where the mountainous regions have higher representation in the national assembly despite having less population than the tarai (foothills and plains). This is erroneous, as it is devoid of natural justice and principles of democracy,” he told this newspaper.
According to him, a national consensus should be arrived at before delimitation of Parliamentary and assembly constituencies, and the genuine concerns of the states having lesser population should be addressed before taking the final decision. He went on to add that all options, including that of maintaining the present proportion of representation could be tried while increasing the numbers of overall seats in Parliament and state assemblies. Also, a new system of resource allocations could be worked out, he suggested. While the Central government will have to walk a fine line on this, it also has to deal with another tricky issue — enumeration of all castes across India.
Caste census
Since 1951, when the first census of Independent India was conducted, only the number of Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs) has been counted, not of all castes. The reason for capturing the data of only the SCs and STs was to ensure the number of seats reserved for the two communities in the legislatures reflects the proportion of their population. Currently, of the 543 Lok Sabha seats, 84 are reserved for the SCs and 47 for the STs.
However, there is a growing demand for a comprehensive caste census. Several political leaders, social activists and civil society groups are demanding such an exercise saying it is essential to accurately assess the social landscape and ensure targeted policy interventions.
The demand gained further tempo after Bihar released its own caste survey results, which showed that the other backward classes (OBC) and the extremely backward classes (EBC) together constitute a whopping 63% of the state's population. Ever since, the Congress-led INDIA bloc intensified the call for a national caste census, though the grand old party is struggling to release the outcome of a similar exercise in Karnataka, as it is said to found that the population of the dominant Vokkaliga and Lingayat communities is much lower than claimed.
Government sources say no decision has been taken on the national caste census yet, though key NDA allies like the JD(U) and the TDP are in its favour. As for the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the ideological fountainhead of the BJP, it has no objection to collecting data on specific communities or castes if it is used for welfare.
A couple of months ago, RSS chief spokesperson Sunil Ambekar said: "In cases where special attention is needed, the government needs the numbers (the number of men, women, and children belonging to a given community). Then there is no problem... but it should be for welfare only. Should not be used as a political tool. We draw the line there."
Senior Congress leader Jairam Ramesh has sought an all-party meeting to address pressing concerns regarding the Census, saying it was long overdue since 2021. His demand highlights two crucial issues: the inclusion of a comprehensive caste enumeration beyond SCs and STs, and whether this Census will serve as a basis for delimiting Lok Sabha seats per Article 82 of the Constitution. Census could also figure in Parliament's winter session that will begin on November 25.
Questions on sects
Then there is the issue of enumeration of sects affiliated to different communities like the Lingayats, who identify themselves as a distinct sect within Hinduism. There is also a demand within the Scheduled Castes for recognition of sect-specific identities, such as Valmikis and Ravidasis. The Census could potentially reflect these nuances. The government has not taken a call on this sensitive issue yet.
First digital census
After the Census 2021 was deferred due to the pandemic, the government repeatedly extended the deadline for freezing the boundaries of administrative units such as districts, tehsils, villages, etc — which is a mandatory procedure prior to the start of the exercise. However, no extension order was issued after June 30, 2024.
“The census process has undergone a major technical updation since its last iteration. The upcoming one will be the first digital census that will allow respondents to self-enumerate at both the house listing and the population enumeration stage. All replies to the census questionnaire will be uploaded on the dedicated Census portal,” said a senior official who is involved in the process. The officer confirmed that the work on setting up a Census portal is in process. “Since the processes have undergone a technical overhaul, the requirement for a fresh pre-test may be considered, even though the app and the software are being tested internally. The enumerators need to be trained beforehand with the new processes and the Census app,” he said.
Women's quota
Whenever the delimitation exercise is wrapped up, it would lift the constitutional bar on reserving seats for women in Parliament. The government can be expected to milk the women's reservation bill it passed last year amid great fanfare in a special session of the new Parliament on September 20. Sources suggest the process of earmarking seats reserved for women for the 2029 general elections is likely to be taken up in 2027-28.
One Nation, One Poll
Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a strong One Nation, One Poll (ONOP) pitch during his Independence Day address from Red Fort in August. He could as well take it up after the delimitation dust settles.
Pragmatism suggests that the government would not want to fight on multiple fronts simultaneously. ONOP is much more difficult than delimitation as it requires at least five constitutional amendments. The government does not have the numbers at present to get those constitutional amendments passed in Parliament.
Article 82 on delimitation
Upon the completion of each census, the allocation of seats in the House of the People to the States and the division of each State into territorial constituencies shall be readjusted by such authority and in such manner as Parliament may by law determine:
Provided that such readjustment shall not affect representation in the House of the People until the dissolution of the then existing House:
Provided further that such readjustment shall take effect from such date as President may, by order, specify and until such readjustment takes effect, any election to the House may be held on the basis of the territorial constituencies existing before such readjustment:
Provided also that until the relevant figures for the first census taken after the year 2026 have been published, it shall not be necessary to readjust-
(i) the allocation of seats in the House of the People to the states as readjusted on the basis of the 1971 census; and
(ii) the division of each state into territorial constituencies as may be readjusted on the basis of the 2001 Census, under this article.
When 42nd Amendment Act, 1976 amended Article 82
In Article 82 of the Constitution, after the proviso, the following provisos shall be inserted, namely:
“Provided further that such readjustment shall take effect from such date as the President may, by order, specify and until such readjustment takes effect, any election to the House may be held on the basis of the territorial constituencies existing before such readjustment:
Provided also that until the relevant figures for the first census taken after the year 2000 have been published, it shall not be necessary to readjust the allocation of seats in the House of the People to the States and the division of each State into territorial constituencies under this article.”
84th Amendment in 2002
It kicked the delimitation can down the road by extending the bar proportional representation of seats for the next 25 years till 2026.
Questionnaire
Questions to be posed during house-listing include the total number of persons normally residing in the household, whether the head of the household is a woman, number of dwelling rooms exclusively in possession of the household, number of married couple(s), whether the family has telephone, internet connection, mobile or smartphone, two-wheeler or four-wheeler, the cereal they consume, main source of drinking water, main source of lighting, access to loos and their type, waste water outlet, availability of bathing facility, availability of kitchen and LPG/PNG connection, main fuel used for cooking, availability of radio, transistor, television etc.
