After India avenged the Uri and Pulwama terror attacks by Pakistan, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval had famously said, "I have never done anything twice in my life. Every operation big or small is a first in my life." In other words, his operations can never be typecast to read a pattern because they are always unique.
As Doval crafts a new strategy to make Pakistan pay for orchestrating the recent Pahalgam massacre of tourists, we perhaps may not see a surgical strike of commandos going behind enemy lines to take out terror nests as was done after Uri. Or a rerun of an aerial attack deep inside Pakistan's Balakot to demolish Jaish-e-Mohammed's (JeM) biggest jihadi training factory in retaliation to Pulwama. What can be said though is that Pahalgam will be avenged in spectacular fashion.
With Prime Minister Narendra Modi saying in English - despite addressing an audience in the Hindi heartland of Bihar - for the benefit of the global audience that "India will identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers and we will pursue them to the ends of the Earth," Doval has his task cut out. Modi went on to say that the "terrorists along with their backers, will get a punishment bigger than they can imagine".
Pakistan messed up with India at a time when it is already struggling to manage internal instabilities and tensions on its borders with Afghanistan and Iran. Believe it or not, since 2021, of all countries that Pakistan shares its borders with, the one with India has by far been the most stable. Pahalgam could be the Pakistani army's attempted pivot, as it is losing mass support at home due to a string of terrorist attacks as also its pogrom against former prime minister Imran Khan and his supporters.
The ceasefire
The Directors General of Military Operation (DGMOs) of both countries had in 2021 reiterated the 2003 ceasefire agreement. Their joint statement read, "Both sides agreed for strict observance of all agreements, understandings and cease firing along the Line of Control and all other sectors with effect from midnight 24/25 February 2021." The truce was observed by and large despite the Uri and Pulwama escalations.
But, the situation changed for the worse after the April 22 terror attack in the Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir, in which 25 tourists and a local person were gunned down. It was the deadliest attack in Kashmir since 2019 when a car bomb targeting a convoy of buses carrying Indian paramilitary soldiers killed 40 of them in Pulwama.
If soldiers were the target in Pulwama, tourists were segregated based on religion and shot dead from pointblank range in Pahalgam. It is the biggest attack on civilians in over two decades.
Balakot action
In recent years, India twice opted for a strong retaliatory military response against Pakistan, in 2016 and 2019. In 2016, India carried out surgical strikes inside Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) in response to an attack on an Indian army camp in Uri. Three years later, IAF planes bombed the JeM training facility in the wee hours of February 26 after the shocking suicide attack on a CRPF convoy in Pulwama on February 14.
A dozen IAF Mirage 2000 aircraft equipped with Israeli-built SPICE (Smart Precise Impact and Cost Effective) 2000 precision missiles flew across the Indo-Pak border to target the intelligence-identified terrorist camp in Balakot in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
The complete package for the Balakot attack comprised a mix of aircraft, including Mirages, accompanied by four Sukhoi-30s for air cover and decoy. Two surveillance aircraft, the Phalcon Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) and the indigenous Netra Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) system, were deployed, as were two IL76s for mid-air refueling.
The Pakistan Air Force responded by entering the Indian airspace but were chased away by IAF fighters. It led to a dog fight and the brief capture of Group Captain Abhinandan Varthaman, whose MiG took a hit.
In the post-operation press conference, the then foreign secretary Vijay Gokhale said, “Credible intelligence was received that Jaish-e-Mohammed was attempting another suicide terror attack in various parts of the country, and the fidayeen jihadis were being trained for this purpose. In the face of imminent danger, a preemptive strike became absolutely necessary. In an intelligence led operation in the early hours of today, India struck the biggest training camp of JeM in Balakot ... this non-military pre-emptive action was specifically targeted at the JeM camp.”
The 2019 operation was different because Indian warplanes penetrated Pakistani airspace for the first time since the 1971 war. Even during the Kargil war in 1999, the IAF had operated from within the country’s airspace.
The Balakot strike also marked a shift in the Indian response doctrine. Not only did the government take political ownership of the action of entering the enemy airspace, it introduced an element of surprise and let terrorists and their masters know that India has the will to pursue them deep inside Pakistan and would not shy away from using its military might.
Defence minister Rajnath Singh had termed the Balakot operation as India’s out-of-the-box response, adding the adversary has to think 100 times for any future misadventures. He said the response displayed India’s defence capability and affirmed its right to defend itself against terrorism.
Rajnath described the Balakot airstrikes as a singular event of military precision and impact, saying that it teaches the leadership to think strategic rather than tactical. “Our approach to terrorism was and will remain a judicious combination of clinical military action and mature and responsible diplomatic outreach,” he said.
The Navy factor
Though Doval's previous operations involved deploying the Army and IAF, to Navy did not have a substantial role. Sources said the Navy’s assets can easily be mobilised and deployed in the northern part of the Arabian Sea in international waters. This flexibility is not available with the Army or the IAF. For, no helicopter can come within 1 km of the LoC and no fixed-wing aircraft is allowed within 10 km on either side. As for the maritime boundary, it extends up to the 12 nautical miles (around 22 km from the coastline) where a nation can exercise its sovereignty. Beyond that is international waters.
“The tactical deployment of warships would send a clear message to Pakistan, making things tough economically. As it is Pakistan doesn’t have its own merchant ships for trade and energy supplies. The presence of warships close to Pakistani waters can lead to higher insurance premiums and also make things tricky,” the source said.
No measures to mobilise firepower using road and rail can compensate if the sea lanes of communication (SLOC) are threatened, he added. That call, of course, has to be taken by the political leadership.
First steps
The Cabinet Committee on Security, the highest decision making body of the country, on April 23 announced a raft of measures in response to the Pahalgam killings. They include:
The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty.
Expulsion of Pakistan's three military attaches. Both countries to downsize staff strength at their respective high commissions from 55 to 30.
Suspension of permission to Pakistani nationals to travel to India under the SAARC visa exemption scheme (SVES). All Pakistani nationals currently in India under its SVES visa to leave within 48 hours.
Closure of the Integrated Check Post at Attari with immediate effect. The Attari-Wagah check post is the only operational land border crossing between the two countries.
Suspension of visa services to Pakistani nationals with immediate effect. The ministry of external affairs revoked all existing valid visas issued by India to Pakistani nationals with effect from April 27. The medical visas issued to Pakistani nationals will be valid only till April 29. All Pakistani nationals currently in India are to leave the country before the expiry of visas.
Describing the recent retaliatory measures, another source said, it is no more about destroying a camp or a training facility. “India is now aiming to hit the state of Pakistan with unforeseen ferocity.”
Sources also cited the decision to put the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance as one of the many out-of-box steps taken this time around. The treaty had so far withstood tumultuous bilateral relations, including the wars of 1965 and 1971 and 1999 Kargil conflict. “It is a strong symbolic message,” the source said.
Also, the way the ambassadors of other countries are being briefed and the heads of the other states are responding, India is aimed at isolating Pakistan internationally.
Indus Waters Treaty
Though India does not have adequate facility to impound the Indus waters at present, it is already making Pakistan nervous. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called the suspension of the treaty an act of war. He said it would block the lifeline for 240 million Pakistanis. "Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan as per the Indus Waters Treaty, and the usurpation of the rights of lower riparian will be considered as an Act of War and responded with full force across the complete spectrum of National Power," his office quoted him as saying in a statement.
And Pakistan Peoples Party Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari threatened that blood would flow in rivers if water is stopped. "The Indus is ours and will remain ours - either our water will flow through it, or their blood," the former foreign minister was quoted as saying.
Pakistan reacted with counter steps, including the suspension of visas, scaling down of diplomatic staff, including the defence attaches, and firing along the LoC. It said it "shall exercise the right to hold all bilateral agreements with India, including but not limited to the Simla Agreement in abeyance."
Islamabad also blocked the airspace for Indian airlines and closed the Wagah border crossing and suspended all trade routes with India, including those through third countries.
"Pakistan shall close down the Wagah Border Post, with immediate effect. All cross-border transit from India through this route shall be suspended, without exception. Those who have crossed with valid endorsements may return through that route immediately but not later than 30 April 2025," the statement read.
Pak Army losing influence
The frustration of Pakistan Army losing its traditional hold over the state and the people was visible, as on April 17, its Army Chief General Asim Munir termed Kashmir as its jugular vein. “Our stance is absolutely clear, it was our jugular vein, it will be our jugular vein. We will not forget it. We will not leave our Kashmiri brothers in their heroic struggle,” said Munir.
He also played the religion card and reiterated the two-nation theory that led to Partition in 1947. "The two-nation theory was based on the fundamental belief that Muslims and Hindus are two separate nations, not one. Muslims are distinct from Hindus in all aspects of life - religion, customs, traditions, thinking and aspirations," Munir said. "Our religions are different, our customs are different, our traditions are different, our thoughts are different, our ambitions are different. That was the foundation of the two-nation theory that was laid there. We are two nations, we are not one nation," he added.
“The Pakistani Army abhors good relations with India,” said another source. Regurgitating the two-nation theory is part of the mind games.
How the 2019 attack panned out
February 14: 40 CRPF personnel killed when their convoy was attacked by Jaish suicide bomber
February 15: India withdraws Most Favoured Nation status to Pak, adds it would take all possible steps to isolate it in the international fora. Pak rejected allegations of its link to the strike
February 16: Mortal remains of the 40 CRPF soldiers cremated in their hometowns
February 17: J&K administration withdraws security cover to five separatist leaders in the Valley. India briefs various countries about the terror attack
February 18: Nine persons, including an Army Major and three Jaish terrorists killed in a gun battle that lasted close to 18 hours in the Pinglena area of Pulwama. Pakistan summons its envoy to India for consultations
February 19: Then PM Imran Khan breaks silence, says Pak would retaliate if India takes punitive military action against them
February 20: Terror attack probes goes to NIA. It names Jaish in FIR
February 22: Pak govt takes administrative control of Jaish HQ
lFebruary 23: 10,000 Central forces personnel sent to Kashmir valley to strengthen the counter-insurgency ops, maintain law and order.l
February 26: IAF bombs Jaish’s biggest terror-training camp in Pak’s Balakot. Islamabad says it is “uncalled-for aggression”.
February 27: IAF pilot, Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, captured by Pak after his MiG goes down on the other side of border
February 28: Pak suspends Samjhauta Express service between the two countries. US, UK, France make a ‘listing request’ to the UNSC demanding travel ban on Jaish leader Masood Azhar
March 1: Pak frees Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman after international pressure
Defining Line of Control
The Simla Agreement defined the Line of Control between India and Pakistan. Subsections 1 and 2 of clause 4 of the Simla Agreement state:
In order to initiate the process of the establishment of durable peace, both the Governments agree that:
Indian and Pakistani forces shall be withdrawn to their side of the international border.
In Jammu and Kashmir, the line of control resulting from the cease-fire of December 17, 1971, shall be respected by both sides without prejudice to the recognised position of either side. Neither side shall seek to alter it unilaterally, irrespective of mutual differences and legal interpretations. Both sides further undertake to refrain from the threat or the use of force in violation of this Line.
The withdrawals shall commence upon entry into force of this Agreement and shall be completed within a period of 30 days thereof.
Doval speak
At an interview with the MHRD innovation cell in 2019, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval had said, “I have never done anything twice. I always liked doing everything differently as if I am doing it for the first time. Whether it’s a big or small operation, I treat it as my first. So I do it with the spirit of a child. Because, then, you do not depend on any assumptions.” Here are some of his other insights on operational decision making:
Always assume the worst-case scenario - what happens if everything goes wrong. Then try to improve on it
Have abundant clarity about your objectives. Take out all the adjectives and adverbs. There should be only nouns and verbs. Make it as small and as simple as possible. Don’t say ‘we are going to fight terrorism’. That’s not the objective. Instead, say: we are going to neutralise on such-and-such date such-and-such person or module
Before taking a decision I always ask myself, am I angry. I never take a decision when I am angry. Because you can’t be objective when you are angry. Also, I ask if I’m afraid. If I’m afraid about the security of my life, then my decisions can’t be objective. So, I wait for another day. Always take decisions in a completely calm state of mind, neutral state of mind
Tough decisions have very limited options, but still there are a few options to choose from. Go for the most cost-effective and most sure-shot option
Failure happens not because of wrong decisons but because of wrong options, which lead you to the wrong way.