NEW DELHI: India should move away from population control as a state policy objective and recalibrate its family planning framework to reflect the country’s changing demographic profile, said Sanjeev Sanyal, member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM).
Sanyal shared the report, titled "The Ghost of Population Past: How Population Control Persists in India", co-authored by Aakanksha Arora, a director, and Virat Singh, a consultant with the EAC-PM.
The report warns that fertility has fallen well below the replacement level in several parts of the country. This has raised concerns about an ageing population and changes in India’s demographic profile.
The authors said live births in India peaked at about 29 million in 2001 but have since fallen to below 23 million. The population continues to grow, mainly because of demographic momentum created by India’s relatively young population. Longer life expectancy and improvements in healthcare and living standards have also contributed to population growth.
“India’s fertility rate is well below the replacement rate and some parts of the country now have East Asian and European fertility levels,” Sanyal said.
The authors said population control measures remain embedded in government policies, including in some states that are now seeking to encourage higher fertility. They said this disconnect between policy and demographic trends needs to be addressed.
The report compares India’s situation with China, where population-control measures continued for years even after their adverse demographic effects became apparent. It cautions that India could face similar pressures if policies designed for an earlier phase of population growth remain unchanged.
Sanyal clarified that the report does not oppose family planning for health reasons, birth spacing or individual choice. “Its central argument is that population control should no longer be treated as an objective of state policy, given the country’s declining fertility,” he said.
The authors cited data from the Sample Registration System (SRS) and the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) to highlight differences in fertility across states and union territories.
The report noted that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is 1.4 in Andhra Pradesh, Punjab and Maharashtra, 1.5 in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, 1.3 in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, 1.6 in Goa, and 1.2 in Delhi.
Together, these states have a median age of about 35 years and an average TFR of around 1.4. Their demographic profile is therefore closer to ageing economies such as China and the United States than to India’s national median age of 30, the report said.
India’s continued population growth is largely a result of its relatively young population and the resulting demographic momentum. Falling infant mortality and rising longevity have also contributed to population growth even as the number of births declines.
The report concludes that India is not heading towards another population explosion. Instead, it expects fertility to continue declining naturally. It warns that further attempts to suppress fertility could accelerate the country’s transition to a low-fertility and ageing society.
The report calls for family planning policies to be realigned with India’s emerging demographic reality rather than continuing to focus primarily on limiting population growth.
