The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a warmer and drier winter this year, with below-normal rainfall and above-average maximum and minimum temperatures across most parts of the country. The conditions could affect soil moisture, water availability and agricultural productivity during the rabi cropping season.
The northeast monsoon, which occurs from October to December, is expected to arrive in southern India during the third week of October and is likely to be normal, with rainfall in the range of 88 per cent to 112 per cent of the long-period average (LPA). Based on data from 1971 to 2020, the LPA for South Peninsular India during the season is around 334.1 mm.
The forecast offers some relief to the southern peninsula, which experienced its driest monsoon season since 1901. However, most parts of the country are expected to receive below-normal rainfall, except some areas of northwest India.
The anticipated rainfall deficit during the rabi season could worsen soil moisture conditions and water availability, increasing irrigation requirements and putting further pressure on agricultural productivity.
The IMD has also indicated a higher likelihood of dry spells this season. While extreme weather events are generally less frequent during this period, their occurrence and localised effects cannot be ruled out.
For October, the IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall, at less than 85 per cent of the LPA. The country's October rainfall LPA, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is around 75.4 mm.
Later in October, both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to remain above normal across most parts of the country, except some areas of northeast India and isolated parts of central and northwest India.
This year's monsoon rainfall was 87 per cent of the long-period average, totalling 759 mm between June and September. It was the fourth-lowest rainfall recorded since 2001 and the 13th-lowest since 1901.
The all-India rainfall deficit was 12.6 per cent, with significant shortages and drought conditions reported in several states, including Maharashtra, Karnataka, parts of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Gujarat and Rajasthan.
June and August were notably poor rainfall months, while July received more rainfall and September recorded normal levels. Low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal helped keep the eastern core monsoon zone adequately wet.
Region-wise, northwest India received 94.1 per cent of its LPA, Central India 97 per cent, South Peninsular India 76 per cent and northeast India 74 per cent. East and northeast India recorded 1,017.1 mm of rainfall, the lowest since 1901. South Peninsular India received 542.0 mm, its fourth-lowest total since 1901 and second-lowest since 2001. Central India, in contrast, received normal rainfall.
The monsoon core zone, which covers much of the country's rain-fed agricultural area, received 779.9 mm of rainfall. This was below the lower limit of the normal range of 782.8 to 881.2 mm, although the rainfall was described as near normal.
