In politics, euphoria is a one-way ticket to a crash landing. Seven-and-a-half years ago, when the levers of power fell into the hands of the man projected to be Bihar’s Mr Clean and saviour, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had only one motto to get the state out of the quagmire of the four Cs: caste, crime, communalism and corruption.
After his swearing-in on November 26, 2010, as Bihar’s 34th chief minister at the historic Gandhi Maidan in Patna, a reporter asked Nitish to name his first three priorities. His answer was “governance, governance, governance”. What happened to rob the leader, nicknamed ‘Sushasan babu’, of his sheen on his third term as chief minister? “Nitish Kumar’s priority changed after getting a landslide victory in the 2010 Assembly election. He has started preparing for the 2014 Parliament election and governance has taken a backseat. This has led to more bureaucratised administration,” says Prem Chandra Mishra, senior state Congress leader and spokesperson.
Fragile Survival
Today, Nitish is perceived as a politician who broke a 17-year-old alliance with the BJP in the name of ‘secularism’ to preserve his Muslim vote bank, even giving Muslim clerics the right to sport red beacons on their cars.
“The hype created in the first term brought a sense of complacency in the system. Being in the government we too realised that we were not matching the expectations of the masses and people were comparing the performance of NDA II with NDA I,” said senior BJP leader and former deputy chief minister Sushil Kumar Modi.
Nitish is seen by his critics as a leader whose sole obsession with Narendra Modi led him to flirt with the JD(U)’s sworn enemy, the Congress—in spite of objections from long-term colleague and JD(U) president Sharad Yadav—and get the support of Independents to stay in power. “JD(U) survives on a razor-thin majority with the support of four Independent MLAs while the Congress has not even given him the letter of support making the government vulnerable,” added Sushil Modi.
After experiencing the rule of law for two terms under which over 50,000 criminals have been jailed, Bihar’s claim of good governance and an effective law and order machinery got a severe jolt when recent crime records showed a sharp rise in cognizable offences from 1,04,778 in 2005 when Nitish came to power, to 1,47,633 in 2011. The maximum rise was reported in the cases of kidnapping, theft and riots. Former president APJ Abdul Kalam’s grand dream of reviving the ancient Nalanda University collapsed when he resigned, saying he was being forced out by economist Amartya Sen, a Nitish favourite; charges of nepotism plague the university.
When his party lost the Maharajganj by-election to the RJD, Nitish peevishly blamed ally BJP for sabotaging him. “When Modi comes to Bihar, and attacks Nitish, we will automatically stake claim to the largest constituency of secularism,” says K C Tyagi, spokesperson and Rajya Sabha MP, JD(U). Counters Dr Manoj Jha, RJD spokesperson: “The fact is there is no fundamental shift in Nitish Kumar’s politics after the split, and secularism is certainly not his strength. There are historic reasons for that. Not even once in the last 14-15 years he has given any statement on secularism. It is a temporary political posturing in the ensuing battle between L K Advani and Narendra Modi. He (Nitish) is part B of BJP.”
The recent blots on Nitish’s escutcheon happened after 27 schoolchildren died in Chapra, and the government refused to take responsibility and alleged that it was part of a conspiracy to discredit the government. In a state where the chief minister had laid stress on reviving primary health centres and ordered government doctors to work, many of the children died because of the pathetic state of ambulances and a hospital that lacked doctors and sufficient medical facilities. It was reported that the state government had not spent Rs 1,700 crore meant for midday meal infrastructure. Says BJP General Secretary Rajiv Pratap Rudy: “The problem with Nitish Kumar is that he is a one-man army. He does not have second-rung leadership, who can stand by him. He goes into a shell every time something happens—as it happened in case of children’s death by eating midday meals. He cannot handle the political pressure.”
Non-committal Congress
Despite its soft overtures to Nitish, the Congress is, however, acting coy about coming out in open support of the chief minister post his high-decibel split with the BJP. Says Union Minister C P Joshi, new AICC in-charge of Bihar: “My main role and focus will be in strengthening the Congress in the state. We’re not looking at any alliance issue at the moment.”
The Congress headquarters, he adds, is “awaiting a report from the party’s grass-root workers” before any strategy is finalised.
As the most prominent Congress leader from Bihar, Shakeel Ahmed, puts it candidly, “We are maintaining equidistance.” This is of course vis-a-vis long-standing ally of sorts, the RJD, and its chief Lalu and the newly single and ready-to-mingle JD(U) and its icon Nitish. There are two reasons for this Congress ambivalence. Despite the sneaking admiration for Nitish and the obvious positive spinoffs his stance on Narendra Modi has generated for the Congress nationally, the Grand Old Party is not sure about two things: JD(U)’s electoral fortunes post-split, and its own intent.
On the first count, there is no saying that Lalu might not bounce back and it would be foolhardy to junk a long-term ally for a closet neo-convert for undefined returns. And second, even if the JD(U) does well, it might be more inclined towards a non-Congress formation. (And of course, the Congress, in the event of a hung Parliament, might not be averse to backing a Nitish-led combination to scuttle Modi.)
As of now, both sides seem to be keeping the post-poll menu of possibilities rather open-ended.
Weak on terror
The handling of the Bodh Gaya blasts tarnished Nitish’s image as an administrator—the state government did not act on information provided by the Intelligence Bureau, the Union home ministry and Delhi Police that the Indian Mujahideen (IM) was doing a reconnaissance of the site. Nitish later washed his hands of the affair saying the police officials concerned should be questioned.
Ironically, the chief minister is in charge of the home portfolio and would have been privy to the warnings. Bihar has no Anti-Terror Squads and Special Task Forces. There is no-anti Maoist security policy. Police sources say that after the Batla House encounter and the subsequent crackdown on the ‘Azamgarh module’, the IM has moved base to Darbhanga and neighbouring areas in Bihar; of the 14 IM members captured by security agencies in the past two years, 13 are from Darbhanga. Nitish’s opponents accuse him of going soft on terror modules to prevent annoying the Muslim community, which he had weaned away from RJD’s Lalu Prasad.
In May 2012, when the Karnataka police arrested alleged terrorist and Darbhanga native, Kafil Akhtar, Nitish raised objections. Sources also say that Ishrat Jahan was born and raised in Khagaul in Bihar before her family shifted to Mumbai. A desperate attempt to counter a resurgent Lalu and protect his minority base, an overwhelming ambition to be the next PM and a declining social order seem to be dimming the aura of a leader who held such promise for the state.
The economic deal
It was a promise Bihar looked forward to being fulfilled; in a state where during Lalu-Rabri rule, kidnappers roamed free and citizens could not walk the streets after 7 pm, Nitish brought the rule of law back. The demoralised, sycophantic police force was re-energised; criminal-politicians like Syed Shahabuddin—hitherto considered untouchable—were jailed.
In a state where infrastructure existed only in name, roads appeared magically and girls went to school riding bicycles the government gave them. Real estate prices rocketed, with construction spurring growth. Investment started pouring in from expat Biharis who found the moribund state they had left behind had turned into a welcome mat. Rural health infrastructure improved drastically and private investors moved in. The bureaucracy, which had functioned as a groveling political appendix, began to work with commitment. The workaholic JD(U) honcho had no other obsession than work; he did not care for films, music, television or any kind of sports, working 14 hours a day.
“Do not consider work a burden,” he told officials, “Do it as your dharma.” Statistics sang Nitish’s praise. In June 2009, a World Bank report said that Patna was India’s second best city for business, after Delhi. Between 1999 and 2008, Bihar’s GDP grew by 5.1 per cent annually, though it was still below the Indian average of 7.3 per cent. Later, the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) stated that between 2004–05 and 2008–09, the state’s GDP grew by 11.03 per cent, which made Bihar the second fastest-growing economy in India during that five-year period, just behind Gujarat’s growth rate of 11.05 per cent.
A joint report by CSO and National Sample Survey Organisation calculated that Bihar experienced a 14.80 per cent growth in factory output in 2007-08, just below the national rate of 15.24 per cent. Nitish became the poster boy of political salvation; a leader to be lauded and emulated. His critics, however, say that these numbers did not reflect the right story: the survey base was too small. “The state failed to attract private investors largely owing to non-availability of land for industries, shortage of power and a lackadaisical bureaucracy,” says KPS Keshri, President of Bihar Industries Association.
Half the state’s population is made up of BPL families and over 56 per cent of Bihar’s children less than three years old suffer from malnutrition. Till December 2008, of the total 164 proposed new investments of Rs 91,750 crore recorded by the State Investment Promotion Board (SIPB), only 15 worth Rs 628.49 crore have taken off.
According to the Bihar Economic Survey 2009-10, the state government has cleared only 22 of the total of 245 proposals amounting to Rs 1,33,841 crore approved till November 2009. The total actual investment in Bihar is just Rs 1,044 crore. Agricultural growth contributed only 6 per cent to the overall growth story. About 89 per cent of Bihar’s population depends on agriculture for livelihood; during 2005-06, agricultural growth was -10.82 per cent, while during 2007-08, it was -8.72 per cent. The share of registered manufacturing in Bihar’s total Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) fell from 2.3 per cent in 1999-2000 to 0.7 per cent in 2008-09. However, JD(U) MP N K Singh says that apart from infrastructural development, huge social sector spending has helped the state attend high growth rate.
Urban collapse
During the heady days of Nitish’s rediscovery of Patna, Bihar Urban Development Minister Ashwini Kumar Chaubey’s photograph standing on a JCB machine was published in the newspapers with the accompanying slogan that the city would be made to be the “Paris of India”.
According to a Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) report, less than 10 per cent of the city’s population is connected to a sewage network; which means 90 per cent of the city’s waste is discharged into open drains. From the drains, it percolates into the groundwater, which is pumped up by the Patna Municipal Corporation to be distributed. This is the only major city in the country where solid waste disposal systems hardly exist. Nitish’s government allowed the construction of over 2,500 high rise shopping complexes and apartments on the already-congested roads—most of them even 8 to 10 feet wide—adding to the chaos.
The regulatory mechanism failed totally. Recently the Patna High Court stopped the construction of the buildings which didn’t follow building bylaws. According to a review paper by the UK’s Department for International Development, the per capita expenditure on core municipal services in Bihar in 2012 was abysmally low, compared to other urban centres of similar size.
The Yatra crisis
With his achievements as a backdrop, Nitish projected himself as the people’s CM; his many yatras were not just mass contact programmes, but were calculated political moves to enhance his credibility. The chief minister has undertaken seven yatras, the spindrift of which is indicative of his popularity, complete with singers and dramatists who extolled the government’s achievements. The first trip was named Nyaya Yatra—a whirlwind tour undertaken in July 2005 protesting the then Governor Buta Singh’s decision recommending dissolution of the Assembly.
The next two—Vikas and Dhanyawad yatras—happened before and after the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, one with the slogan of development and the other giving thanks to the people for rewarding the JD(U)-BJP combine with 32 of the state’s 40 Lok Sabha seats. Then came the Prawas Yatra in December 2009, followed by the Vishwas Yatra again just before the 2010 Assembly polls. The JD(U)-BJP alliance got an unprecedented 206 of the state’s 243 seats. Soon things began to change as the government’s unsustainable image bank collapsed.
Schoolteachers attacked Nitish’s Adhikar Yatra in Khagaria district—for two days, stones were pelted at his cavalcade and vehicles were set on fire. In one village, the CM had to shut himself inside a government office to avoid meeting complainants until the cavalry arrived. At one of his janata durbars, policemen took off their clothes in protest against not being paid salaries.
Corruption and crime rule
Corruption grew in Bihar more than what it was during Lalu’s time: government plan outlay increased from Rs 4,000 crore a year to Rs 34,000 crore, offering more scope for loot. Nitish had vowed to confiscate the properties of corrupt officials. Some bureaucrats suffered, but the move was stalled after the courts stepped in.
In 2012, a performance audit of the implementation of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) in Bihar found that 73 per cent, or Rs 6,000 crore, of the Rs 8,189 crore spent in 38 districts between 2006 and 2010 was siphoned off by the authorities. “In most cases of financial improprieties, action has been initiated,” defends JD(U) spokesman Neeraj Kumar. The Detailed Contingency (DC) Bills amounting to Rs 18,797.90 crore, which remained pending till August 31, 2012, against 92,168 Advance Contingency (AC) bill withdrawals to the tune of Rs 30,305.47 crore was one of the major concerns for the Comptroller and Auditor General in its last report. The Opposition kept on raising this issue. “We strongly demand a CBI probe into the AC/DC bills scam and other financial lapses mentioned in the CAG report,” said Abdul Bari Siddiqui, RJD leader in the Assembly.
The Cycle Yojana to stop girl students from dropping out of school is dogged by corruption too. A government survey suggests that about half a million school children enrolled in 11 of 38 districts are fake admissions. The overall figure in the entire state may run into several millions, exposing the Bihar government’s claim of a huge enrolment of children in schools at the behest of the state.
Nitish’s support for politicians with criminal associations has cast a shadow over his image. Ajay Kumar, involved in over two dozen cases of murder, kidnapping and extortion in Siwan, married Kavita Singh who later became MLA from the same constituency. Kavita is not alone, other wives of criminals rule the roost. The JD(U) has played host to MLAs like Bima Bharati, wife of alleged gangster Awadhesh Mandal; Annu Shukla, wife of the jailed former legislator Munna Shukla; Lesy Singh, wife of slain gangster Butan Singh; Purnima Yadav, wife of history-sheeter Kaushal Yadav; and Poonam Devi, wife of gangster Ranvir Yadav, who had in September last year opened fire in Khagaria in front of the CM, against protesting teachers. Nitish defended Ranvir’s action.
The caste backlash
Nitish’s debut as CM had much to do with social engineering of a different kind. Soon after coming into power, he attempted to develop special social constituencies and further consolidate his traditional support base. He created two new categories—Ari Pichhra (Extreme Backward Castes) and Mahadalits (extreme Dalits). The excuse was that the creamy layer of even the lower castes was cornering government resources.
The strategy worked well initially; a large chunk of voters from the most deprived of the lower castes shifted towards JD(U). Except the sub-caste of Paswans, Nitish had included all the other major 21 castes in the Mahadalit category. Mahadalits were given land along with `300 crore from government funds to be distributed among them. It is another matter that the land had been brought earlier from the Mahadalits themselves by officials and middlemen for a song and sold to the government at a huge profit.
The Mahadalit Vikas Yojana became a joke when it was found that a villager in Nitish’s constituency was allotted a pond. In Bihar, 94 EBCs still lag far behind the dominant backward castes and constitute 32 per cent of the votes—Nitish’s core constituency. The upper castes constituting Brahmins, Bhumihars, Rajputs and Kayasthas account for about 14 per cent of the population. They are disenchanted with Nitish. Sources in Patna say that after the split, they would back the BJP.
Considering this fallout, Nitish has tried to pamper Bhumihars and Rajputs, and appointed them to key positions such as chief secretary, DGP and offered them key portfolios in government. Upper caste disillusionment was recently clearly reflected in the Maharajganj by-election, in which RJD got a comprehensive lead in upper caste-dominated constituencies.
The murder of Ranvir Sena chief Brahmeshwar Singh, alias Mukhiyaji, in June 2012 in Bhojpur district, added to Nitish’s fears of a caste backlash. He depends on 16.5 per cent of crucial minority voters to boost his electoral prospects, and damage Lalu whose politics thrives on the MY (Muslim and Yadav) combination. The belated demonisation of Narendra Modi by the JD(U) leadership has had its impact on Muslims in Bihar: privately community leaders and Muslim JD(U) leaders feel that Nitish has unnecessarily given his Gujarat counterpart more relevance.
The police-firing incident at Forbesganj in June 2011 in which four Muslims were killed has not gone down well with a large section of the minorities who feel that Nitish tried to shield the officers concerned. However, Neeraj Kumar feels that “Nitish can take political risks rather than compromise on basic principles.” Meanwhile, CPI(ML) leader Kamlesh Sharma is opposed to Nitish’s open liquor policy. “It may have helped multiply state revenue by opening liquor shops in every nook and corner of not only urban areas but in remote villages. But easy accessibility has made many young poor people alcoholics,” he says.
In a recent biography of Nitish, the CM is quoted saying, “But then I have to be sure if people are giving me another tenure. I nurtured a tree. Whether it’s going to bear fruit or not depends on nature’s mood.” The weather report on the ground doesn’t seem encouraging.
Nitish Raj: A performance appraisal
Promises
Improvement in power situation
Good road connectivity from district HQs to capital city
Land reform
Would act tough on corruption
Would create an environment for investment
Would give a major boost to agriculture sector
Would check migration for survival
Technical educational institutes to check migration of students
Better healthcare facilities; new multi-specialty hospitals
Achievements
Not at all. Per capita power is still the lowest.
Most of the districts are connected with good roads
Land records updated in few districts
Corruption increased manifold
No major investment came to the state Agriculture is yet to take off
Migration is still continuing from rural areas
Barring a few, no major institution came to Bihar
Hospitals don’t have any
basic healthcare facilities