With more than 2,300 dead in extremely hot weather across India, a recent Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay (IIT-B) study predicts more intense and longer heat waves, more often and earlier in the year in future. In a changing climate, newer areas, including large swathes of southern India and both coasts will be severely hit, resulting in more heat stress and deaths, said the study, published in the journal Regional Environmental Change.
“From climate model projections, we have pointed out that there is a possibility of high occurrences of heat waves in South India in future,” says Subimal Ghosh, associate professor at the Department of Civil Engineering, IIT-B, and one of the paper’s authors.
Such a forecast is in line with global and Indian studies. Other recent assessments have predicted that intense heat waves will grow with rising global temperatures, up by 0.9 degrees Celsius since the start of the 20th century.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) records that from 1906 to 2005, the mean annual global surface-air temperature increased by about 0.74 degrees (land-surface air temperature increases more than sea-surface temperature). As a result, there will be significant changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including heat waves, as IPCC’s 2014 report warns.
“It is difficult to directly link this present single-year high heat-wave occurrence to climate change,” says Ghosh. “However, there is a good possibility that such heat waves may indicate the adverse impacts of global warming.” A rise in the frequency and intensity of heat waves would increase the risk of heat stroke and heat exhaustion, and even deaths from hot weather, the IIT-B team predicts, echoing concerns raised by IPCC.
With a large proportion of people without sufficient access to water, electricity and primary healthcare facilities, India could be very vulnerable to heat waves, the study notes. “Heat waves are an important class of climate hazard that may have serious consequences on health and ecosystem, keeping existing vulnerabilities of population in mind,” says Kamal Kumar Murari, the lead author of the study and an IIT-B doctoral candidate. “Our findings highlight the need to better understand the direct temperature-related consequences in order to develop better adaptation strategies.”
The IIT-B study is important because it is particularly exhaustive. Murari and his colleagues used daily temperature data over 40 years (1969-2009) from 395 weather stations across India. They also used climate-change simulations of seven EarthSystem Models (ESM), which combine the interactions of atmosphere, ocean, land, ice, and biosphere under a wide variety of conditions. In addition, they used US National Center for Atmospheric Research data on daily relative humidity and data on heat-stress analysis. Based on these datasets, the IIT-B team estimated the potential impact of future heat waves on mortality, using historical data from India’s home ministry.
The team projected intensity, duration and frequency of severe heat waves for low, middle and high range rates of climate change as shown in long-term projections called representative concentration pathways (RCPs) —four greenhouse gas concentration trajectories that climate modellers use to describe possible climate futures. Each pathway notes how much the planet has heated up and the concentration of greenhouse gases doing the heating.
The IIT-B team took RCP26, a projection consistent with the goal to hold global warming to 2 degrees, showing a peak and a decline in warming; RCP45, considered the most probable case; and RCP85, possibly the worst-case scenario.
Under the most probable-case and the worst-case scenarios, 2070 onward, there could be an increase in intensity, duration and frequency of severe heat waves. In particular, a large part of southern India, east and west coasts, which have been unaffected by heat waves, are projected to be severely affected after 2070.
Severe heat waves are expected to appear early in future years, starting in early April, under the worst-case scenario. A sizeable part of India is also projected to be exposed to extreme heat-stress conditions, intensification of heat wave and heat-stress leading to increased mortality.
Heat-stress is a condition in which the body cannot cool off to maintain a healthy temperature—resulting in rashes, cramps, dizziness or fainting, exhaustion, heat stroke, and a worsening of existing medical conditions. The IIT-B study follows other studies that have also shown an increasing trend in heat waves.
Dr D S Pai, who heads the Long Range Forecasting division at the National Climate Centre, Pune, and his colleagues at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), have shown a noticeable rise in the heat wave and severe heat-wave days over India during 2001-2010—the warmest decade recorded—compared to the previous four decades.
The IMD team used heat-wave information from 103 stations on the Indian mainland during the hot-weather season of March to July over the past 50 years (1961-2010). They examined various statistical aspects of heat waves and severe heat waves, such as long-term climatology, decadal variation, and long-term trends.
Pai and colleagues also found heat waves linked with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), denoting fluctuating ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, known for its global impact. The study indicates the complexity of future weather predictions.
They found that heat waves of eight or more days peak a year after the El Nino (warm) phase of this cycle and are at a minimum a year after the La Nina (cool) phase. The IMD team found other factors linked to heat-wave dynamics, including the annual path of the sun; moisture distribution across India and how it is influenced by seas on its either side and the arrival of the monsoon. The arrival of the monsoon over north India marks the end of the hot weather. In 1998 and 2002 when the monsoon was delayed, long heat-wave conditions prevailed here. —IANS/IndiaSpend