October 1962. The world is on the brink of nuclear annihilation. The Cold War between historically implacable foes America and the Soviet Union, which began in 1947 on the ruins of post-Nazi Europe, is at its coldest—a blizzard of coups, proxy conflicts, dramatic intelligence wins and losses, and military grandstanding. The conflict between Communism and the Free World is shaping the 20th century’s World Order. The Cuba Missile Crisis is the apex point of this remorseless rivalry. In 1961, the Americans place nuclear missiles in their bases in Italy and Turkey, and CIA tries to overthrow Cuba’s cigar-smoking president Fidel Castro. Worried about the threat to his government’s existence, Castro begins to pivot towards China, which makes the Russians antsy. They place nukes in Cuba and the Americans threaten to launch missiles against the island. It takes 12 nerve-wracking days for things to settle.
February 2022. Vladimir Putin launches an invasion of Ukraine. Three years of war, Russia loses over 8,00,000 soldiers. The US and the West give Ukraine money and weapons. They impose sanctions on Russia to cripple its economy. Then comes along Donald Trump, the 47th president of the United States. For the first time in history, he tilts the US towards Russia and castigates his Western allies. The 21st century’s New World Order is born. A divided Western alliance, with the Washington-Moscow axis on one side and UK and Europe on the other. China stands aside, watching. Perhaps, smiling.
THE COLD WAR THAT SHAPED AMERICA AND THE WORLD: In 1950, China, under Mao Zedong had waged war with America over Korea. Neither side won, but Castro realised there is indeed a world power which could give the omnipotent Americans as good as they got. Concerned about losing a vasal state so close to American soil, Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev in July 1962, offered Castro the protection of the Russian nuclear umbrella and installed medium and long-range nuclear missile launch-pads in Cuba. American President John F Kennedy ordered a 500-mile naval blockade to prevent more Soviet missiles from reaching the neighbourhood. Russia sent warships to Cuba. Khrushchev told Kennedy, “I do not doubt that if someone attempted to dictate similar conditions to you—the United States—you would reject such an attempt. And we also say—no.” The phrase “eyeball to eyeball” came from that confrontation. On the morning of October 24, US Secretary of State Dean Rusk had whispered to National Security Adviser McGeorge Bundy, “We’re eyeball to eyeball, and I think the other fellow just blinked.”
ALLY KHRUSHCHEV BACKED CHINA IN 1962: Another eyeballto-eyeball confrontation was happening on the India-China border around the same time. India lost both the border war and land to China. Jawaharlal Nehru saw Mao as “half man, half devil” and accused the Indian Communists of wanting to “wash off his face so that it won’t be frightening, like a devil’s.” A trifecta of betrayal and self-interest emerged on the Asian theatre comprising Khrushchev’s USSR and Mao’s China at odds and Russia refusing to back India against China. Moscow suspended sale of MiG-21s. A week before the Chinese incursion, Khrushchev told a Chinese diplomat that the Soviet Union supported Beijing’s protests against India’s ‘territorial encroachment’; similar to what Trump is telling Zelenskyy on Putin’s behalf. On the day China’s PLA crossed into India, the power struggle between the Soviets and the Chinese was put in cold storage; in return Khrushchev expected Mao’s support in the Cuban Missile Crisis. China held off propaganda blitzes against Russia. But when Khrushchev blinked, a furious Mao called him a coward. Sick of Mao’s belligerence, Khrushchev revoked his position on selling MiG-21s to India. After five decades of fighting China, an unenviable task awaits Modi and India which had basked in the vishwaguru glow. South Block will have to navigate the US-RussiaChina triangle with deft diplomacy and trade dialogues.
WHY INDIA CANNOT TRUST TRUMP: The American president is an unreliable ally. He humiliated his ‘good friend’ Modi publicly at a press conference in Washington by announcing in the PM’s presence that the US would do the same to India with import taxes and “it no longer matters to us that much what they charge.” He even mocked an Indian reporter’s accent. After a few days of harsh tirades, Trump said that “somebody is finally exposing them (India) for what they have done.” Like in 1962, Russia is silent on the Trumpian offensive, considering India ignored Biden’s sanctions against buying Russian oil. Only it is the US playing the USSR with India this time, not China. Harsh Pant, Director, Studies and Head of the Strategic Studies Programme at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi, says, “As far as Modi and Trump are concerned, it’s not really a question of trust. It’s about what you can possibly do and how you can engage with an administration where the top leadership is seemingly devoid of a wider framework. Trump’s stance of challenging China’s dominance largely creates a space for India and the US to work together. While there are no indications that he is not going to do that, there are also no indications that he is giving it serious thought. He is blowing hot and cold on China; it puts India in a difficult situation.” Finally, after much dithering, the Indian government seems to have got its courage back. Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal declared that India has made no commitments to the US over the tariffs; neither has the tariff hike begun. Should India give in, it will severely impact the economy. Goods like foreign cars, clothes and alcohol will become cheaper almost by half. The RSS which controls the levers of government won’t take this lying down because of their proSwadeshi ideology. Ideology is the minefield of international relations. Indian foreign policy took a slow U-turn after the Cold War. PV Narasimha Rao, India’s prime minster then, cautiously began to improve relations with the US, Western Europe, and China. In 1991, the movement for liberalisation, privatisation and globalisation began under Rao with Manmohan Singh at the helm. Indian foreign policy was initially shaped by Nehru’s “peacemaker” role while his daughter Indira wanted India to be a “security seeker”. Her stance almost changed the country into a Russian satellite. Ironically Modi and Nehru are on the same page with India seeking to play a larger role, offering to mediate between Russia and Ukraine. But Trump has no compunctions of conscience. The author of the Art of the Deal sees himself as a world solo peacemaker, negotiating with the Taliban before, and now Hamas and Ukraine. His allies are forced to swallow their bile because there is no Western world order without America.
The Trump of 2025 is treating India as a piece on the subcontinent chess board, not as an ally or friend. National security expert Bharat Karnad says, “Basically, nothing much has changed. It’s always the powerful running the world, in different guises. Trump knows that America can’t be as dominant as it was in the previous era. He is trying to see if he can get Russia on his side, so together they can corner China. He needs proximity to Putin to put China on the spot, otherwise China becomes uncontainable.
That’s the larger strategic plan. This is actually a good thing—Trump is essentially doing the hard work for India. But that doesn’t mean that he is India’s friend; he is nobody’s friend, America is nobody’s ally.” Pakistan has been desperately trying to manoeuvre its old favoured position, but Trump isn’t buying it. In his first address to Congress, he praised Pakistan for helping the CIA capture terrorist Mohammad Sharifullah, who was behind the 2021 attack on US troops at Kabul airport. Recently, Pakistan’s Ambassador to Turkmenistan was deported from the Los Angeles airport despite a valid visa.
THE PUTIN-TRUMP BROMANCE IS UPENDING THE OLD ORDER: Putin, unlike Khrushchev, hasn’t blinked. Three years after the Ukraine invasion, the unthinkable has happened. The US voted with Russia on two UN resolutions on Ukraine against the Europe-backed UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russian aggression— Trump even accused Ukraine of invading Russia. Israel, India and Putin allies like Iran, Israel and North Korea sided with the new alliance. It speaks of the diplomatic fix New Delhi is in, that the ‘Mother of Democracy’ shared oxygen with dictatorships like Iran and North Korea. “If present trends continue, the growing closeness of Putin and Trump is to watch out for. It remains to be seen what happens to it once the Ukraine war ends though. More so, on whose terms does the Ukraine war end?” says Pant. After insulting Ukrainian president Zelenskyy publicly, Trump has invited him back, and laid the responsibility on Russia of making the 30-day ceasefire work. Washington has threatened sanctions on Moscow if it doesn’t comply. Europe is confused and disheartened by Trump’s hostile unpredictability. “Now that there is a sense that Trump is abandoning Europe, it might result in a fundamental restructuring of European security architecture since the end of World War II,” says Pant. The power equation that had held the world in balance is unravelling. Trump has questioned the relevance of NATO, and threatened to block US dollars unless other members paid “more”. NATO was formed with the US as its leader in 1949 as a pivot to counter the Warsaw Pact of Communist countries; after the USSR’s fall, it reigns supreme over sea and air. On March 7, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “If they (European nations) don’t pay, I’m not going to defend them.” The greatest worry of Britain and Europe is a Russian invasion. Putin has dreams of creating a new, great, Russian Empire by reviving, or even expanding the long-dead Soviet imperium. What America does affects the rest of the world. It means India, too. Diplomat Dilip Sinha says, “America is by far India’s most important economic partner, and our largest market and source of investment. Whether we trust Trump or not, we cannot ignore America’s importance. We have to play along with Trump.”
A KGB MYSTERY: The historical precedent to MAGA and American isolationism harks back to pre-World War II times. America lived in splendid isolation, separated from the rest of the world by the Atlantic Ocean. Eisenhower refused Churchill’s pleas to join the war to save a losing Britain until the Japanese bombed the Pearl Harbor. After America helped to destroy the Hitler nightmare, Russia under Stalin emerged as its new foe. Has Trump upended the template now? Informally called ‘the Tsar’ by Russians, Putin was a KGB colonel. KGB officers active in the 1980s now say Trump was recruited by the Kremlin in 1987, during his first visit to Moscow and given the codename “Krasnov”. There is not even a shred of proof to such sensational statements. Meanwhile, America’s shadow president Elon Musk, has been in regular contact with Putin for the last two years. According to a Wall Street Journal report, they have spoken repeatedly about ‘personal matters, business and geopolitics’. The report further cited many current and former American, European and Russian officials saying Putin asked Musk to hold back Starlink over Taiwan “as a favour” to China’s Xi Jinping; Putin and Xi are close, having met more than 40 times since 2013. Russia denied the WSJ report. Beijing is mum. Sinha says, “The biggest change today is the divide in the West. You have Musk who is beholden to China because of Tesla, and you have Trump who is soft on Russia. Despite the so-called animosity between China and the US—Trump’s 20 per cent tariff on China—it does not mean that Trump cannot cut a deal with China. Now there is talk of recession in America. This might edge Trump to go back on his tariff on China.”
TARGET CHINA: China has moved fast to reduce imports of American goods. Economists expect that China could allow the Yuan to depreciate to around 7.60-8.00 to negate the tariff fallout. It could target close US competitors in key sectors. Beijing can halt exports of critical raw materials; half the world’s production and processing of 18 of 34 critical raw materials happen in China. However, the massive Chinese infrastructure growth bubble popped after Covid—not good news for Xi since about 30 per cent of China’s GDP comes from the domestic real estate sector. About $18 trillion in Chinese household wealth has been wiped out since 2021. FDI went down by around 80 per cent between 2021 and 2023. WSJ reported capital flight of $254 billion from China between June 2023 and June 2024. About one in five young Chinese adults is unemployed. Xi, however, is no pushover. Tariffs or no tariffs, about 45 per cent of global industrial output will be Chinese by 2030, according to the United Nations Industrial Development Organization. Trump’s axing off aid agencies is altering America’s ‘Defender of Democracy’ image irreparably. Without American dollars, diseases like HIV and Ebola could become global pandemics, ferried by air and sea. The shutdown of USAID in the long run will erode American soft power. Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia told a reporter, “Huge mistake. We need reform of USAID not dismantlement. China is not ending foreign assistance programmes.” Curtains on USAID will lead to a healthcare crisis in resources-rich Africa, which is the final frontier of global control where China has been assiduously courting and liberally assisting governments.
AMERICAN UPHEAVAL: The ‘woke’ Liberal establishment, which had until now controlled all levers of society, business and politics has one foot in the grave. The nationalist Bible Belt and racist groups such as Proud Boys and Aryan Nation are uprooting the ossified establishment, encouraged by Musk and Trump. The president’s policy is simple and effective: Be American, Buy American. Bring manufacturing back home to boost jobs. No aid to countries which don’t sync with his worldview, including India. Diplomat and India’s former Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Rajiv Dogra says, “The World Order as it exists is a tested and tried formula. There might be tinkering, some of which is needed; but replacing the entire system is hopefully not going to happen. Trump may be mercurial, but has not yet been declared as totally out of control.” Narendra Modi’s slogan Minimum Government, Maximum Governance may not have been fully fructified, but he and Trump share the idea. On his election campaign Trump had promised to ruthlessly slash the bloated government—“drain the Washington swamp”—although the scything is being done by unelected bestie Musk who is in charge of the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). No private citizen has wielded such power in the history of the United States. Initiated by Musk, massive layouts of government employees, elimination of whole departments, sacking of FBI agents who worked on cases against Trump, irregular stops and detention of people deemed to be aliens, attacks on Blacks, Asians and Indians, is dividing America. There is eerie similarity between American and Indian politics: the Democrats lack a leader with the mojo to take on the Great Disruptor and India’s Opposition has failed to evolve an acceptable and effective leader who can win against Narendra Modi’s charisma and nationalist strength. Rahul Gandhi is not up to the job despite his good intentions.
EUROPE IN TURMOIL: Trumpism is finding echoes in Europe, regardless of global security concerns. The Liberal Left is on the retreat everywhere and the Right is taking over the democracy space. The anti-immigrant nationalist sentiment of Europeans is bringing right-wing parties to positions of influence in the national and even continental narrative. In Europe, immigrant equals Muslim. The Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders who won the last election wants to ban immigration from Muslim countries—a Trumpian concept—and construction of new mosques. The Muslim ban declared by Trump during his first presidency is creeping back; Pakistanis and Afghans will be banned from entering the US. Italy’s right-wing prime minister Giorgia Meloni won the election on an anti-immigration platform; she had promised a naval blockade around Italy to prevent North Africans from entering her country. Last year, Germany restarted border checks. France plans to restore “order on our frontiers”. Sweden and Finland are getting tough on anti-migrants with new laws. The US president’s threat to annex Canada and Greenland has left allies fuming, much to Putin’s advantage. A country with mammoth military and industrial power abandoning its allies to benefit Putin presage division and conflict. Geostrategist and author Iqbal Chand Malhotra says, “The way things are happening, probably there will be three blocs—America plus Russia; Europe; China-Pakistan-North Korea and Iran.”
INDIA-US CHESS BOARD: In 2017, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the White House, the famous Modi bearhug was on full display with a beaming Trump clasped to his bosom. They held hands at the ‘Howdy Modi’ event where Modi declared “Agli Baar, Trump Sarkar!” This time Trump played both good cop, bad cop himself; praising Modi as a “great leader” and “nice guy” but mimicking him on a podcast, “I will do it, I will do it, then I will do anything necessary” changing his voice with a fake Indian accent like a vaudeville actor in a cheap dive. While Trump insists the partnership is equal, he also said “But really, we want a certain level of playing field, which we really think we’re entitled to.” Modi responded with a subtle warning, “One thing that I deeply appreciate and learned from President Trump is that he keeps the national interest supreme. And like him, I also keep the national interest of India at the top of everything else.” India may make some concessions, but in the larger picture where Indian interests are in danger, the prime minister will not be bullied. A fightback against Trump is growing worldwide. Europe and the UK are boosting their defenses, considering the possibility of Trump leaving them adrift. Canada and China are retaliating with tariffs which will hurt the American consumer. Malhotra says, “At this point of time it is important to reiterate that China is the Number 1 political, economic and military threat faced by India. In the last three years, India has been incurring over a $100-billion trade deficit with China. China has succeeded in destroying Indian industry. What the Chinese have done is that they succeeded in converting industrialists in India into traders.” American courts are on the warpath against Musk’s extra-constitutional powers while Trump is planning to change the Constitution to get a third term in office. Sherlock Holmes called any difficult case a ‘Three Pipe Problem’. The world’s three pipe problem is the Trump-Putin-Xi paradigm. The world is watching the smoke signals with trepidation.