Iran is trending. Trump says it’s about democracy, saving protestors and freedom. With hundreds dead and thousands detained under a brutal government crackdown, the world watches a volatile moment escalate into a potential turning point. Iran’s leadership says it is fully prepared for war if the US intervenes, while Washington keeps “very strong options” including military force on the table in response to the deaths of civilians. Trump has warned Tehran about crossing a “red line”, maintained tariffs on trade partners dealing with Iran, and urged the protection of protestors from afar. The Islamic Republic rose from the ashes of a popular revolt against an autocratic Shah, backed implicitly and explicitly by the US. With exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi now calling for action, the spectre of regime change looms once more over Tehran. If Trump were to invade Iran, overthrow the ayatollahs, and install exiled Pahlavi—already engaging with Washington—what name would history give the Orange Man? Would this be dubbed a neo-Pahlavi reconquest under the banner of democracy?
Trump doesn’t care. The real headline is oil, gas and control. Iran is one of the biggest energy vaults on Earth. It controls the Strait of Hormuz and sits between Asia, Europe and the Middle East like a switchboard. Whoever controls Iran controls prices, routes and leverage. But Trump should know this is not the 1940s. After America entered World War II alongside Britain, it inherited the British Empire’s military footprint. The US took over British naval bases, strategic ports and global dominance. The empire changed hands without being officially declared. The Soviet Union did the same after conquering Eastern Europe, planting its military presence across the Baltics and even Cuba. Empires don’t always announce themselves. They expand through bases, access, and control. Trump’s pitch about being the “de facto president” of Venezuela shows something new: America is no longer hiding behind CIA coups and covert regime changes in Africa or Latin America. This is open militarism, direct ownership and direct control sans a mask. Next, if Trump ever tries to take Greenland by force, NATO will collapse overnight. America would be attacking territory protected by its own allies. Europe would be forced to choose between war and loyalty. The alliance would shatter to Russia’s glee. Capitalism punishes instability. Economic war will follow. Markets would panic. Investors would pull money out of the US. Trade retaliation would hit American companies. The dollar’s strength depends on trust; break that and borrowing will become expensive, inflation will rise, and America will bleed economically without a single bomb falling on its soil.
In this era of shifting tectonics, India’s choice is stark. With a powerful military, a decisive political leadership, vast manpower, and rich natural resources, India is uniquely positioned to emerge as Asia’s dominant military power to balance the triumvirate while navigating a wary China. The Bhagavad Gita exhorts: “kankseta phalam svadharmaya yuddhac chreyo ’nyat…”—Better to die in one’s own duty than live fulfilling another’s (Gita 3.35). India cannot stand as a passive spectator in a world where great powers redraw maps in pursuit of resources and influence. It must act decisively, uphold its strategic interests, and be prepared not for war but for deterrence, leadership, and regional stability. Buy the best weapons available globally, not wait years to perfect indigenous versions. Power respects speed. In this new order Pakistan is not a power player, it is a pressure point. It doesn’t shape the game, it reacts to it. Its economy is too weak, its politics too unstable, and its military too dependent on external sponsors to act independently. Right now Pakistan survives on a mix of Chinese loans, Gulf money and IMF life support. That means its foreign policy is transactional. Pakistan becomes a buffer state in the Triad vs China with shrinking relevance. It will lean even harder into China because it has nowhere else to go. But the moment Pakistan becomes more liability than asset, Beijing will slow down, not step up. Pakistan remains dangerous but not dominant. Nuclear weapons give it deterrence, not leadership. It can prevent defeat, but it cannot shape outcomes beyond its borders. A rising India and a distracted China make Pakistan feel cornered. That’s when it historically becomes more unpredictable. Not stronger, but just more desperate, which is often more dangerous. But Pakistan is simply a side character stuck between bigger, richer, calmer players.
Make no mistake. If Trump invades Iran, he won’t be ending tyranny. He’ll just be replacing one form of control with another. The ayatollahs ruled with God and guns while Trump will rule in absentia with oil and contracts. Iran won’t be freed. It will only be transferred not from dictatorship to democracy, but from theology to capitalism. Not from oppression to dignity, but from clerics to corporations. Trump will be known as the man who turned a civilisation into a transaction and called it liberation.