It’s déjà vu all over again. Just ahead of the foreign ministers’ meet of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) nations this week, Pakistan backtracked from its support for trans-South Asian road connectivity project. Suggesting that it needed more time to consider the implications of the project, Pakistan has managed to scuttle a pact that would have allowed free movement of passenger and cargo vehicles with the SAARC nations. After Pakistan had refused to sign the pact at the Kathmandu summit of SAARC in November 2014, India along with Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh had decided to move ahead of their accord. In June 2015, the four states signed a landmark Motor Vehicles Agreement (MVA) for the regulation of passenger, personnel and cargo traffic, in Thimphu, Bhutan. The initiative is expected to pave the way for a seamless movement of people and goods across their borders for the benefit and integration of the region, thereby galvanising economic development in South Asia at large. India only has bilateral motor vehicle agreements with Nepal and Bangladesh, but a multi-lateral pact would go a long way in boosting trade in the region. The agreement opens up the possibility of turning border roads into economic corridors, which could increase inter-regional trade within South Asia by 60 per cent.
Taking note of the finding that transforming transport corridors into economic corridors could potentially increase intra-regional trade in South Asia by almost 60 per cent and with the rest of the world by over 30 per cent, the joint statement read, “We acknowledge that apart from physical infrastructure, the development of economic corridors within and between our countries requires the implementation of policy and regulatory measures, including the BBIN MVA, which will help address the non-physical impediments to the seamless movement of goods vehicles and people between our four countries.”
A broader SAARC agreement would have allowed free movement of vehicles of each country—cargo as well as passenger—in territory of other country through authorised operator. After Pakistan’s obstructionist stance could not be cleared, India decided to tap its eastern neighbours and the framework of the new agreement was finalised at the South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation (SASEC)—another regional grouping which includes India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Pakistan is not part of this grouping. SASEC was set up in 2001 to bring together these six countries to promote regional prosperity and boost trade by improving cross border connectivity.
India is now pursuing a similar framework with Myanmar and Thailand to get access to the larger ASEAN market through seamless passenger and cargo movement. Among other measures is the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP), India and Bangladesh signed to operationalise an agreement on coastal shipping last year. The pact is aimed at promoting bilateral trade and bringing down transportation cost of export-import cargo. India is also working on a 3,200-km road link from Moreh (India) to Mae Sot (Thailand). According to the SOP, both countries will have to treat each other’s vessels as per international sea transportation norms.
Pakistan’s paranoia is also evident in its repeated attempts at denying the use of land route for trade between Afghanistan and India. This has resulted in growing ill-will for Pakistan in Afghanistan even as Afghan-India relations continue to grow. Allowing land route for transiting goods between India and Afghanistan would have opened up new possibilities for more extensive contacts in other areas with the Pakistani transport sector, directly benefiting from the transit trade. Everyday that ordinary Afghans lose opportunities of easy, direct trade with India, Pakistan generates ever more resentment from them.
Covering at least 1.5 billion people across India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Maldives and Afghanistan, the SAARC, established in 1985, is one of the largest regional organisations in the world. But its achievements so far have been so minimal that even its constituents have become lackadaisical in their attitudes towards it. Improved connectivity in South Asia, both through road links and waterways, should be leveraged by regional states as a means to enhance regional cooperation and foster intra-regional trade.
This can move the region beyond the blinkers created by Partition, whereby the region has more often than not missed the larger picture in pursuit of short-sighted rivalries. In South Asia, the security dynamics between a large India and its smaller neighbours have ensured that the road to economic and political cooperation will be a bumpy one. After the emergence of China, that road has become an even more difficult one to traverse. So it is all the more imperative for New Delhi to resolutely push the project of greater regional economic cooperation forward. If Pakistan persists in its obstructionist agenda, New Delhi is right in signalling that the country would find itself marginalised in the larger South Asian dynamic. Pakistan cannot hold the future of the region hostage to its India paranoia. harsh.pant@kcl.ac.uk
The author is a professor in international relations, King’s College, London