Coronavirus is the biggest social, medical and economic crisis the world has been faced with since the end of World War II. While we continue to fight the pandemic, it is important to keep in mind, the sufferings that our children might go through directly as a result of COVID-19. Although, the mortality rate of children is not expected to be high, the economic effect of the situation on them would be huge.
Even as more and more people get effected by COVID-19, there will be a huge impact on the global economy and, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF), a global recession is now inevitable.
However, a recovery will be possible only if we can control the pandemic soon. The recession this time is expected to be worse than that of 1998 and 2008. In both the previous situations, India was less severely affected. But this time around, it is predicted that the economies of the developing countries, including those in South East Asia, will also suffer the most.
India’s GDP growth is expected to be merely 2.5 percent this year, a drop from the estimated 5 percent in 2019. Global GDP growth is estimated to be as low as 1.5 percent. This will result in huge job losses across the world. Around 8.8 million jobs were lost during the 2008 recession. This time it is expected to be much worse—136 million people already risk losing jobs in India.
The experience from 1998 and 2008 has shown that recession leads to large-scale indebtedness. Its impact on children, especially in developing economies, was severe. The children of developed economies are often protected by state-sponsored social security programmes elsewhere. However, children in economies such as India are not that fortunate.
The indebtedness at the time of recession is both at national and family level. According a 2009 World Bank and IMF report, the 2008 recession made many developing countries such as Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mali, Sierra Leone and others vulnerable to indebtedness. With the Indian economy, which was already in a slowdown, any major economic shock now will cause long-term damage. Indebtedness at the national level means that the nations lack resources.
This directly impacts public welfare programmes, including education and health, in economically weaker countries. After the 1998 recession, Asian countries, including India, saw huge cuts in their education and health budgets. This means that the mid-day meal scheme and its funding by the states will take a hit.
India is a country with high population density. So, COVID-19’s community transmission, which seems to have already started, will put extreme pressure on the economy. There is a possibility that allocations for programmes related to children’s health might be diverted to fight the threat arising out of Covid-19. It will distract attention of policymakers from the education budget too.
Unemployment due to global recession leads to indebtedness at the family level. Large scale unemployment will mean that children will be forced out of classrooms and contribute towards household incomes, directly resulting in a spike in child labour. The world experienced a rise of child labour in East Asian countries during the 2008 economic crisis. India risks a huge increase in child labour in the coming months.
It is estimated that every 1 percent drop in the global GDP results in 14 million additional poor people. The 1998 recession drove 50 percent of Indonesia’s population to poverty while urban poverty doubled in South Korea, as also in India, forcing people to commit suicide. Recession also causes expansion of the informal sector. Informalisation of employment along with growing poverty deepens child labour and forces them to be trafficked for modern-day slavery.
The 2008 recession led to one billion malnourished people and five million more hungry children by 2010 only in Africa. In India, 19.8 million children below the age of six are victims of malnutrition. Infant mortality rate is 32 per thousand. If policymakers do not take this into account, the pandemic will only cause greater sufferings for our children. This will push the country 20 years back and destabilise the country’s growth.
Another cause for concern is that foreign aid shrinks at the time of global economic shocks. International funding agencies such as World Bank and UN organisations are dependent on grants from wealthy countries. When the economies of these countries are severely affected, there is contraction in their funding contributions. This directly affects the children of the developing countries.
There is a big risk that India’s foreign funding for key development programmes might be reduced in the coming months. This will directly impact civil society organisations, including those working among children. It is important for all stakeholders in India, including the central and state governments, civil society organisations and funding agencies to come together to ensure that children are protected and not pushed into a world of exploitation, insecurity and poverty.
(The writer is Director (Legal), Bachpan Bachao Andolan and can be contacted at sampurna.behura@bba.org.in)