India’s dilemma of having it both ways
After days of depressing and disturbing news, it seems that things are cheering up a bit. We can take pride in the news that our PM enjoys higher popularity ratings than the President of the USA and almost all other leaders of democratic countries many of them much older and more affluent and developed than India. Indeed, 66 percent approval in the middle of the second term in office should be considered impressive by any standards.
The catch is that PM Modi had approval ratings much higher than this about six months back before the government’s fumbling to cope with the Corona pandemic severely dented its image. It’s true that even today there is none who can come close to matching his charisma and nationwide popularity but shouldn’t the not so insubstantial dip cause concern? We dare not whisper the apprehension how this trend—if it continues—may impact the forthcoming UP and other state elections.
The party that enjoys brute majority in the parliament has repeatedly shown itself miserably dependent on Modi Magic. The debacle in West Bengal has punctured the mythical balloon of invincibility. Not many are overawed by the larger-than-life shadow cast by the modern-day ‘Chanakya’ or unstoppable momentum of the ruling party’s Juggernaut. But let’s not get bogged down by party politics and electoral obsessions.
There are other reasons to be positive. The number of coronavirus infections is declining sharply as are the morbidity figures. How one wishes that one could heave a sigh of relief. The sliver of silver lining continues to be surrounded by dark clouds. Each day unveils shocking revelations about fudging by the state government, including the ones ruled by NDA-BJP, of pandemic-related statistics—testing, vaccination, and deaths. It’s only after the higher judiciary has adopted a stern posture that ‘disclosures’ and ‘explanations’ have started surfacing. We can’t be complacent about the Third Wave surging due to a deadly mutant of the coronavirus.
Forex Reserves continue to rise though it’s not quite clear how this is happening. In the Covid-crippled international economy, Indian exports are not winning new markets. From the USA to the EU, many countries are girding up to protect their markets. Harsh economic sanctions and undeclared trade wars have only shrunk the space for our products and services.
Monsoon is on time and meteorologists predict that this will boost a stagnant economy. This is very reassuring but as we scan the horizon there are disturbing portents. From Iran to Russia, there are more challenges than opportunities. China, at present and for a long time in the foreseeable future, can’t be projected as a reliable partner. It would be unwise for diplomats and responsible leaders to name the enemy but it has become impossible post-Galwan to underplay China’s hostility and belligerence.
There is no evidence that supports the over-optimistic view that the ASEAN nations are waiting to switch their international trade from China to India. True, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines feel threatened by China’s aggressive expansionist drive in the South China Sea and beyond but the asymmetry in economic and military power between India and China is so glaring that it would be naive to suggest that India can challenge China in this region.
India’s neighbourhood continues to be turbulent. From Nepal to Sri Lanka, Maldives, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, recent events have transformed the milieu adversely for the pursuit of Indian national interest. Bhutan and Bangladesh are tranquil on the surface but the Chinese have decided to change from push to a shove. No useful purpose can be served by blaming leaders in the past for blunders made by them. What we are confronted with is explosive volatility all along our borders—land and maritime—that is going to cause a heavy drain on our already strained resources.
Unfortunately, boasts about our capacity to give more than a befitting reply to anyone who threatens us have not been enough to deter intruders. Obviously, not all details of defence preparedness can be shared in the public domain but excessive opacity identifying friends and foes can only erode the credibility of those at the helm.
India’s ranking has slipped sharply on various indicators—social development, freedom of expression, tolerance of dissent. Our premier universities struggle to survive in the list of top 200 or top 500 in the world. Can we continue deluding ourselves that our PM’s outstanding popularity and approval scores can offset all other gloomy numbers?
The long and short of this is that we can’t have it both ways. When the foreign Western media pats our back and puffs us for its own reasons we go to town but when it criticises us we shout ourselves hoarse crying conspiracy! How long can we find consolation in statements like one made by an acting assistant secretary of state in the US government praising India for its rule of law and strong democratic institutions?
Pushpesh Pant
pushpeshpant@gmail.com
Former professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University