The tragic loss of the lives of three senior officers—Colonel Manpreet Singh, Major Aashish Dhonchak and Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP) Humayun Bhat—as well as a jawan, Pradeep Patel, during a counter-terrorism operation in the Anantnag district in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) is a reminder that, while the Security Forces (SFs) have established overwhelming dominance on the ground in the Union Territory, the terrorist threat is far from being neutralised. Pakistan’s intentions, moreover, have not changed and new tactics and strategies are constantly being adopted by the adversary. These require continuous course correction on the part of state forces as well.
The operation ended on its seventh day, with three terrorists, including Lashkar-e-Taiba's commander Uzair Bashir Khan, killed. The Kashmir Zone Police had cautioned commentators to “avoid ‘Ambush Hypothesis’. It is a specific input-based ops (sic)”. Details available regarding the location of the terrorist hideout and the terrain indicated that an undetected approach by the SFs would have been unlikely, but other factors suggest tactical errors. Certainly, the killing of the three senior-most officers leading the operation in what was likely the first burst of fire, suggests a measure of complacency and neglect of standard operating procedures. And while the courage of the officers ‘leading from the front’ is unquestionable, the clustering of the three commanders reflects a poor assessment of the capacities and commitment of the adversary.
While this unfortunate incident may give some encouragement to extremist elements in J&K and across the border, its overall impact is unlikely to be significant or lasting. It is important to recognise that the SF consolidation on the ground has been tremendous over the years, and, while the trend may fluctuate in the medium term, the long-term trends are dramatically in favour of the state, and would be irreversible, save some extraordinary and unforeseen circumstances.
A look at the data is useful. Terrorism in J&K was a ‘high-intensity conflict’ from 1990 to 2006—with over a thousand fatalities each year. The violence peaked in 2001, with 4,011 fatalities (all data from the South Asia Terrorism Portal unless otherwise stated). By 2012, these numbers had fallen to 121 but began to rise again thereafter, reaching a recent peak of 452 in 2018. Between 2019 and 2022, total fatalities have fluctuated between 321 (2020) and 253 (2022), but have dropped to 85 in 2023 (till September 15). More significantly, the number of SF personnel killed totals 21 from 2023, till September 15. In 2022, in the comparable period, there were 28 SF fatalities and 30 in the whole year. In 2007, 119 SF personnel lost their lives.
At peak, in 2000, there were 638 SF fatalities. Terrorist fatalities comprise the largest proportion of the totals, both historically and recently. Of the 45,619 fatalities recorded since 1988, terrorists account for 23,964 (52.53 per cent); while the SFs accounted for 6,656 (14.59 per cent). Fifty-three terrorists have been killed in 2023; 193 in 2022; 193 in 2021; and 232 in 2020. The declining numbers in both the terrorist and SF categories are indices of increasing SF consolidation.
Indeed, most of the significant incidents over recent months have occurred in remote, heavily forested locations, far from permanently populated areas. While this creates new challenges for the SFs, in view of the difficult terrain, as well as the substantial cover and potential escape routes available to the terrorists, it is also indicative of a progressive distancing of local populations from the terrorist cause, which has forced the militants to operate without local support and to seek sanctuary in the isolation of J&K’s high mountains.
Crucially, the number of foreign (Pakistani) terrorists active in J&K has also dwindled to insignificance, with the decimation of their ranks and ground leadership. At the end of 2021, an estimated 83 foreign terrorists were active in J&K; another 14 infiltrated successfully in 2022, taking the total up to 97; official sources record no successful infiltration in 2023. Eighty-three of these have been killed—46 in 2022 and 37 in 2023—leaving just 14 foreign terrorists believed to be active in J&K.
There is disarray in the terrorist leadership across the border as well, with at least some prominent leaders killed in recent incidents. Nevertheless, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence and army continue to support, train and maintain Islamist terrorist cadres for future deployment in J&K. While their capacities for mischief have been dramatically eroded, their intent appears to remain substantially intact. And while no large numbers are expected to cross into J&K to wreak devastation, the occasional, highly trained and motivated fidayeen will continue to draw sporadic blood.
Ajai Sahni
Executive Director, Institute for Conflict Management, South Asia Terrorism Portal
ajaisahni@gmail.com