What some call the joyous celebration—the carnival—of democracy, has begun. Others view it more than slightly differently. For them it is a do or die battle and we are reminded every time the elections are announced of the much-abused metaphor of Mahabharat—the fratricidal battle fought in Kurukshetra. The coloured fragrant powders, abir and gulal, are no longer reserved for the Holi, nor the pyrotechnic for Diwali. They along with marigold garlands and bundi laddoos, burfi and peda are associated with elections. All this will follow in due course when the counting day dawns and results announced.
Right now the buzz is about final opinion polls just before the Model Code of Conduct came into force and the excitement centred on ticket distribution. This time the stakes are higher and not a few are worried that their daydreams may turn into nightmares in a blink. Are the psephological projections designed diabolically to turn into self-fulfilling prophecies? Is the domesticated media delivering a command performance to create a wave to ensure a brute majority and vanishing of all minorities? Many have concluded that creating a wave is not really required when a mighty storm is brewing and those in its devastating path hope and pray that the howling winds somehow change their direction.
Some are wringing their hands hoping against hope that somehow a miracle will turn the tide in this desperate last battle to save Indian democracy. Even the Congressmen seem to have forgotten what Nehru once reminded his compatriots: “Eternal vigilance is the price of freedom.” The battles to save democracy never end.
The election campaign had begun much before the bugle of announcement was blown. Battle drums have been beating and the sabres rattled for months. The BJP in its present incarnation has shown no inclination to take prisoners in the battle of ballots. The adversary is a dangerous enemy, not only to be defeated, but extinguished. Primordial war-dancing minions are not allowed to rest. They must keep beating their feet to the tune of heroic ballads of the past to keep the supporters’ blood boiling. In the hysterical frenzy and the noise, the ‘Dance Macabre’ in Manipur is easily forgotten.
To our mind all this isn’t necessary. What we are witnessing is The Supreme Leader who in his own words is made of different clay and chosen by destiny on one side and the leaderless squadrons in disarray, totally demoralised before entering the battlefield.
There is thundering silence (apart from cliched slogans) about serious concern regarding concrete issues of livelihood, education, health and much grandiose articulation of abstractions that leave the masses untouched—erosion of Constitution and decay of institutions like Election Commission of India and judiciary. But there is nothing new about ambitious judges eager to jump in the political fray or loyal bureaucrats trying to serve the people in a different capacity.
Strategies to win over the elected members goes beyond elections. Many are not hard to convince regarding what is good for their people, state and the nation. Entire parties respond to the call of their conscience—a phrase once again coined by Indira Gandhi to defy the party whip.
There is a strong sense of history repeating itself, a replay of tragicomic farce scripted by Mrs Indira Gandhi in the run-up to the Emergency and during those dark days. The best and brightest among her navratnas were the ones who came out with the committed bureaucracy and judiciary. Midnight knocks at the door to arrest opponents and disappearance of innocent youth who perished in jails without bail or lost lives in extra-judicial executions legitimised in the interest of the state have never been exorcised. The skeletons tumbling out of forgotten cupboards have an eerie capacity to haunt those who hold the keys to power.
The political demise of many heavyweights is already foretold. Its surely curtains and no encores for Lalu Yadav, Nitish Kumar, Eknath Shinde, Ajit Pawar, KCR, Digvijay Singh and Ashok Gehlot. Sharad Pawar is the lone lion in the winter. But for how long? Behenji Mayawati has long ago chosen discrete silence over valour. Stalin and Udaynidhi, Revanna, Jagan Reddy and Siddaramaiah will continue to defend their realms against the imperial onslaught from Delhi. BJP will, at best, clinch the distant second spot in Punjab but that will be enough as it will rub Congress’s nose in the dust. Mamata didi remains unpredictable, who shall not vacate her turf easily, however the numbers are juggled and combined forces are deployed against her. Indian elections are no longer about ideology. Individuals with charisma or street fighting experience and larger than life image have transformed the political scenario.
Ultimately it is the TINA factor that matters most. Caste, religion, language and region have all ceased to be crucial for the outcome. The jokers in the pack (no offence meant) are the young first-time voters who have different memories and the ‘Idea of India’.
Pushpesh Pant
Former professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University
pushpeshpant@gmail.com