As the powerful rise, multilateralism of yesteryears is in a shambles
Trump’s triumphant return to power, more powerful than ever, has sent tremors all across the world. Not that the results were entirely unexpected, but the whimsical unpredictability of the man who is referred to as the ‘disrupter’ by his detractors and the great ‘deal maker’ by those who support him blindly or opportunistically makes all sit down and ponder the future. Slogans used by the larger-than-life reality show star, twice impeached and convicted of crimes that would have consigned any person to the dustbin of history, resonate strongly in contemporary India. We would do well to turn our gaze inward at this moment rather than scan distant horizons.
Donald Trump has talked shrilly of enemies within and enemies ganging up against the US, conspiring to cheat the nation of its manifest destiny and gnaw like rodents at its strength trying to corrode its core values. Just replace the name ‘US’ with ‘India’ and forget the caricature of the POTUS-elect juxtaposed with these words in a balloon in some comic book strip and you can’t help noticing the uncanny resemblance/relevance to contemporary Bharat.
First, the ‘enemies within’. It can’t be denied that our land is no less divided a house than the only and lonely superpower on the other side of the globe. Those who wish to get rid of colonial vestiges (selectively maybe) and others who contend that the Constitution that ‘we the people’ have adopted is the only guarantee of preserving the rule of law, a democratic system of governance and safeguarding human rights are arrayed in battle almost equally balanced.
Lets not quibble about difference in percentage points in popularity and electoral votes or vocal (aggressive) minority versus silent (spineless?) majority. The fact can’t be wished away that the Indian Constitution is as much a colonial vestige as our educational system and structure of armed forces. More important is to examine the allegation that both the judiciary and the scheme of fundamental rights have been systematically abused by the enemies within, branded ‘Urban Naxals’, unpatriotic traitors, secessionists, their ranks swollen by infiltrators—illegal immigrants. It is easy to brandish these words and silence any voice of dissent or even legitimate criticism of the government of the day. Precisely targeted pre-emptive strikes by investigative and enforcement agencies that can trace their roots to the colonial period appear indispensable to those in power.
The enemies beyond India’s borders continue to cause serious concern. The tensions along the disputed Himalayan border has thankfully reduced a little with resumption of mutually agreed on patrolling. However, it would be extremely unwise to celebrate a thaw. The Chinese have disappointed (if not betrayed) India in the past repeatedly. It isn’t that they have blinked jittery by deployment and display of India’s military might in Ladakh; the reality is more likely a feint to lull us in a false sense of security.
The turmoil in our neighbourhood—from Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar, Sri Lanka not to overlook Pakistan—has created opportunities for China to make a strategic comeback of sorts after setbacks in the post-Covid period. It shouldn’t surprise anyone that terrorist attacks have become more frequent in the Valley and the Jammu region in recent days. Powers hostile to India are quite content if India grappling with challenges on both flanks as well as in the Indian Ocean region is constrained to allocate ever-increasing budget to defence and retard its economic development and social justice programmes.
The wars, even in distant theatres, are bound to impact our food and energy security. Nor can we be complacent about looming climate catastrophe. Even if we are comparatively safe in near future our proximate neighbours aren’t. Instability and social unrest has a tendency to spill across manmade borders even when guarded by barbed wire fences and bayonets. Tunnels and drones routinely overcome these barriers. It is very unlikely that the milieu will improve in the near future. We can’t take any of our many strategic alliances for granted. We have so far managed to deftly walk on a tight rope but it would be fatal to forget that there isn’t a protective safety net in case of a false step.
There are choices to be made urgently in other areas that impinge on our national interest and civilisational values. Revolutionary transformations in technology-AI are making redundant the concept of ‘national sovereignty’ and distinct cultural identity for majority of world’s population. At the same time, race and religion are issues that have become increasingly divisive if not explosive.
To make matters worse the raging wars in Ukraine and the Middle East (Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen) have effectively demolished international law and the long-defunct UN to useless rubble. Emerging multilateralism of yesteryears is in a shambles. It’s the powerful who will dictate the terms of trade—initiate trade wars and expect others, even large nations like India with promise and potential, to fall in line. We must remain united and celebrating diversity, which is our real strength.
Pushpesh Pant
Former professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University
pushpeshpant@gmail.com