It’s high time to rein in the long-festering Manipur issue
The violence in Manipur appeared to be subsiding through 2024, down to single-digit monthly fatalities from February this year. Nothing, however, has been done to bring down tempers and, indeed, elements within the political leadership, led by Chief Minister Biren Singh, have stoked the fire, propagating baseless conspiracy theories and engaging in the demonisation of the Kuki community.
Abruptly, early September saw an escalation, with 10 fatalities recorded by September 8. Worse, the introduction of a range of new weapons, including drones and a rocket to execute targeted attacks, and reports of other additions to the militant armoury, including Rocket Propelled Grenades and sophisticated automatic rifles, suggest that a further escalation is imminent.
At the same time, rage is being fuelled in the streets of Imphal, with protestors—including a large number of unscrupulously mobilised school children—demanding the removal of Central Forces, the Governor Lakshman Prasad Acharya, the Centre-appointed Security Advisor Kuldiep Singh, as well as 50 MLAs and Director General of Police Rajiv Singh. It is edifying that there is no demand whatsoever from the Meitei community for the removal of the chief minister, who continues to preside over, and fuel, the chaos in the state.
Blatant falsehoods are now being propagated by supporters of the chief minister, as well as dominant media tied to the Hindutva lobby, that the troubles in Manipur started as a result of a conspiracy to create a separate ‘Christian Kukiland’; and that ‘foreign powers’ are involved. No proof, beyond the religious identity of the majority of Kukis, is required for the former allegation, and the weapons in possession of the militants are presented as proof of the latter.
But no ‘foreign interference’ is required to inject weapons into an area of strife, particularly when it shares a 1,643km near-open border with a region where a bloody civil war has been at play for more than two-and-a-half years, and that is flush with weapons for multiple international sources. The Free Movement Regime (FMR) across the India-Myanmar border has, of course, been scrapped, but little more has been done to ensure that the border is sealed to the movement of militants and weapons.
Fencing of the border has been announced but will take a long time. Considering that the Centre has already deployed 60,000 Central Armed Police Force (CAPF) personnel in the state, an additional deployment to seal the border could have been expected but has failed to materialise. In any event, India’s long experience with insurgency, as well as evidence from across the world, demonstrates that weapons will always find their way into regions of conflict.
The situation in Manipur has now become a national disgrace. More than 16 months since the violence began, what appears to be an inextinguishable fire continues to burn. The state has been divided into two ethnic enclaves, with an informal ‘border’, a ‘no man’s land’, between ‘Kuki-Zo areas’ and ‘Meitei areas’, patrolled by CAPFs. Beyond this no man’s land, ethnic populations have raised their own armed militias for protection—as well as to attack hapless victims on the ‘other side’, where the opportunity arises. Of 69,000 internally displaced persons in South Asia in 2023, 67,000 (97 per cent) were in Manipur alone, housed in deplorable conditions in refugee camps.
Having created an unbridgeable stream of blood between the two communities, with a complete collapse of all norms of governance, neither the state nor the Centre appear to have any sense of urgency to bring the temperatures down. Ironically, the Centre has created a situation of dysfunctional dyarchy, invoking Article 355 of the Constitution to interfere arbitrarily in the state, but failing to apply its twin, Article 356, to impose President’s rule.
And despite overwhelming evidence of personal malfeasance on his part, the Centre chooses not to dismiss Chief Minister Biren Singh, now the principal obstacle to any meaningful peace initiative. It is evident that Manipur has been intentionally abandoned to a discredited chief minister, whose mala fides have been obvious since and before the outbreak of violence on May 3, 2023.
It is not clear what the Centre’s objectives are in allowing Manipur to stew. Any prospects of a rational resolution of the legitimate demands of the communities in conflict have now manifestly diminished. The Kuki demands have already crystallised around a call for a ‘separate administration’—something Biren Singh and the Meiteis can never reconcile to.
The narrative in both communities is completely polarised, with intentional falsehoods to cover up wrongs on each side, and to demonise the other. It is abundantly clear that the present situation needs to be brought to an end, Biren Singh must be dismissed, and the President’s rule will have to be imposed. Any other course—especially persisting on the present course—can only protract the miseries of the people of Manipur and greatly harm the national interest.
Ajai Sahni
Executive Director, Institute for Conflict Management, South Asia Terrorism Portal
ajaisahni@gmail.com