NEW DELHI: India was one of the handful of countries who were invited to be “international witnesses” at the historical signing of ceasefire agreement between Myanmar government and eight armed groups – an event which could have significant impact on India’s own north-east insurgency.
The signing of the comprehensive ceasefire agreement – even though by only eight of the 15 attended the lavish ceremony in Nay Pyi Taw – is being projected as a major victory for President Thein Sein, prior to the November parliamentary elections.
Government leaders and senior members of eight armed groups shared a long table and signed the ‘nationwide ceasefire agreement’, which was witnessed by six international witnesses – China, United Nations, Japan, Thailand, India and European Union.
National Security Advisor Ajit Doval flew down from Delhi to represent India. He was accompanied by PM’s interlocutor for Naga talks, R N Ravi.
“As a friendly, geographical, historical and cultural neighbour of Myanmar, we were glad to make this small contribution to the best prospects of peace with Myanmar’s ethnic minorities,” said Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Vikas Swarup.
There had been some diplomatic jostling over the composition of the international witnesses, with the China not particularly happy with the inclusion of Japan. India and Thailand had been the initial choice of ethnic groups, with EU and Japan – big donors to Myanmar – being the late entrants.
While Karen and China are among the big ethnic groups that have joined NCA, the United Wa state army, the Shans and the Kachins, whose region are adjacent to China have kept out of the deal. The government is also conducting military operations against those
However, the door is still open for other armed groups to join the signatories. Incidentally, the principal opposition party, National League of Democracy, which may become the largest party after November polls, declined to sign the agreement as a ‘domestic witness’.
Sources felt the signing of the nationwide ceasefire agreement could even impact on India’s own insurgency in the region abutting Myanmar. India is in the midst of finalising the Naga peace accord with the main stakeholders, whose framework agreement was signed at the Prime Minister’s residence in ..
It was felt that the signing created a “momentum” which will create an atmosphere that will show the benefits of being part of a system which can create greater prosperity.
With a clear relationship between insecurity and underdevelopment, north-east insurgency groups will certainly be looking at developments across the border and will perhaps take a leaf out of the book in Myanmar’s efforts, source
From India’s perspective, the role of National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang armed group in the ceasefire negotiations is not totally clear, as they had off and on being part of the talks. They had not been invited to the initial 2013 summit of 17 armed groups which had Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT).
NSCN-K had taken part in a meeting in September, but were not part of the final event on Nya Pyi Taw today.
However with this agreement not abrogating previous ceasefires, Myanmar government’s 2012 pact to end hostilities with NSCN-K still stands. After the ambush on Indian army in June, India has been courting the Myanmar government to keep NSCN-K at a distance and even put some pressure.
India was able to undertake some operation on NSCN-K camps, which as per official version, were on the India-Myanmar border.
Last week, NSCN-K camps were reportedly demolished, which led the armed group to give a statement criticizing the Myanmar army.
As per sources, the Indian delegation led by Doval did not hold any formal meetings, as it was just a short trip with a ceremonial purpose.