In a state that swings every five years, Congress is pinning its hopes on strong leadership and voter disenchantment with long reign of the Akali Dal.
Out of power for ten years in Punjab, the Congress waits in hope that voters have tired of the Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP regime, which has been ruling the border state since 2007. In 2012, the state belied its reputation of delivering oscillating mandates by returning the Parkash Singh Badal government. Surely the pendulum will swing this time?
Elections are due early next year, and if the Congress has a reasonable chance at the hustings, it is largely because it has a viable state leadership, a factor missing in all the states it has let slip since the Indira Gandhi days: Bihar, UP, Andhra, Telangana, etc. While allowing Capt Amarinder Singh to helm the party in the state, the high command has had to overcome its old reservation about trusting strong leadership locally, a legacy of the former Prime Minister.
Amarinder fell out of favour after the party lost two consecutive Assembly elections in 2007 and 2012 to the SAD-BJP alliance. He was removed as the state party chief and Partap Singh Bajwa was appointed in his place. But the move failed to energise the party, and there was rebellion in the ranks. The party could win only three seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha election and then lost the municipal and panchayat elections.
The problem with the Congress in Punjab is that minus Amarinder Singh the party does not have any prominent face with whom voters can identify. Amarinder has declared that this will be his last election. The party has been unable to develop a second line of leadership in the state despite the fact that it has some young faces like the Ludhiana MP Ravneet Singh, grandson of the late Beant Singh and Amrinder Singh Raja Warring, the MLA from Gidderbaha.
However, it remains a fact that the high command’s trust in state satraps tends to be tenuous, now as in Indira Gandhi’s time. Amarinder had in fact threatened to quit the party and float his own party, which could cut into the Congress’ traditional vote. As could upstart parties like the Aam Aadmi Party, mirroring the trends we have seen in several sta
tes across the country.
Among states going to the polls early next year, Punjab remains the Congress’ best bet. However, its success in this bread basket state will depend on how it can compete with the Akali-BJP alliance in owning the SYL canal issue. It was the Congress government of Amarinder Singh which abrogated in 2004 all previous agreements on river water sharing with neighbouring states. The Supreme Court has held that action unconstitutional, thereby giving both parties an opportunity to indulge in some grandstanding as protectors of farmer interests. Success will hinge on how well the party can connect with the people on such issues.