JAIPUR: The eagerly awaited results of Lok Sabha elections will not only influence who will govern the country but will also impact the internal balance of the two prominent parties in Rajasthan as well. Going by the exit polls, if Narendra Modi comes back to power with strong majority, it will disturb the political permutations of the state’s two biggest leaders, Ashok Gehlot and Vasundhara Raje.
Raje has been going toe to toe against the national BJP leadership as Gehlot's critics will also be keeping a keen eye on the Lok Sabha results. In fact, if one looks at the figures of the last three Lok Sabha elections in the state, the party which has been ruling the state has got more seats in the Lok Sabha elections.
However, the leaders of both the parties have discussed with political observers that if the exit polls are proven correct on May 23, then the trend of the last three Lok Sabha elections in the state will be broken.
After the completion of the Lok Sabha elections, in all the exit polls, NDA has seen a huge increase, in the state. BJP has been given maximum seats and Congress has been given 2 to 5 seats. According to exit polls this time, 20 Lok Sabha seats of the state are clearly visible in BJP's account.
Even after forming the government in the state, if the results do not favour Congress, it will pose double problems for chief minister Ashok Gehlot. Political analysts feel that his critics will become more vociferous both internally and externally, as he had the responsibility of not only insuring his son's win from the Jodhpur seat but also for the Congress to do well in these polls. After the assembly polls, there was a tussle between Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot for the post of the Chief Minister and there was a section within the party that believed the top job should go to Pilot. BJP also wants Gehlot to become politically less powerful within Congress as he is considered an advisor to Sonia Gandhi and had shown his political acumen during the Gujarat polls.
Things will become increasingly difficult for Ashok Gehlot as his critics will argue that he couldn't save his own bastion if his son loses from Jodhpur. "The Jodhpur seat has been given extra importance by congress organization leading up to the the national polls and pressure was put on Gehlot to make sure his son wins," political journalist and analyst Narayan Bareth said.
On the other hand if Modi-Shah duo becomes powerful after the elections it will be doomsday for Vasundhara Raje's political career. After party's loss in the assembly election, she has been already sidelined from state's active politics. Internal sources say that she was the only BJP Chief Minister to not bend to the whims of the BJP Central leadership. She had earlier opposed the appointment of Gajendra Singh Shekhawat as the party president in Rajasthan who was tipped by party president Amit Shah.
"It is very clear that if Narendra Modi becomes the Prime Minister, Raje won't be liked again. Problems will grow even more as BJP top brass will try to instill Gajendra Singh Shekhawat or Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore as a possible threat to her as both of them tend to agree with everything that the Modi-Shah duo say,” Bareth added.
Although Gehlot is assured of the upcoming results in Congress's favor. "Exit polls have been wrong before as well. I have talked to all the candidates from the 25 seats along with the party workers and their confidence is high before the counting on 23rd. We will talk more after the results are out about which direction the country is heading towards, after all it is a democracy", he added.
Consequently, even Vasundhara Raje has tried to patch up after exit poll results and said, "We will win all 25 seats again. Entire country is chanting ‘Har jan modi - Har man Modi’ and NDA will form the Government with Modiji as PM."